• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

In fact, I'm not convinced the 06z NAM isn't heavy snow for the northern part of DFW. And if so, it would be looking at double digit totals easily.

It's showing impressive instability (steep mid-level lapse rates and even some CAPE) for convection. With the intense Omega shown in the DGZ, snow may be break through that max warm layer of 2*C, especially when accounting for wet bulbing.

But I'm over-analyzing one run of a mediocre model. No since in going full ? right now. :)
 
The temps aloft must be very high and/or the rainfall rate must be pretty high for it to be wet at 31 on any above ground objects.
 
NWS HUN AFD: TLDR: They are still riding with temps at the surface cooling enough to support significant icing across N central AL today. Its also why they changed us from Winter Storm Warning to Ice Storm Warning.

000
FXUS64 KHUN 151144
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
544 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

.UPDATE...
For 12Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 449 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Significant winter storm is underway across the across the Tennessee
Valley, with major travel and other societal impacts expected for a
vast majority of the region. Despite the "lull" in precipitation
early this morning, this has the making of a hazardous and
potentially dangerous winter event. This will especially be true for
much of northwest and north central Alabama where a significant ice
event appears more likely.

As is the case with many winter events in our region, the
forecast remains very complex even as we`re underway. This is due to
the fact that the vertical temperature profile and subsequently
precipitation types and impacts will vary depending on your location.
Because of this, there were some changes with this updated package.
We`ve tried to highlight this with some key messages below:

1. An upgrade to an Ice Storm Warning was done across northwest and
much of north central Alabama. This replaces the Winter Storm
Warning. Significant ice accumulations and impacts will be felt in
these areas. Moreover, the predominant precipitation type in these
areas will be freezing rain (with sleet and/or light snow and rain
mixing in at times), depending on your location. Treacherous travel
conditions are expected in these areas with heavy icing leading to
some tree and power line damage.

2. A Winter Storm Warning remains in place for all of southern middle
Tennessee and northeast Alabama. Confidence is still high that
widespread, significant impacts due to ice, sleet, and light snow
accumulations will occur in those areas. However, they will be less
so than areas to the south and west and ice accumulations will be
less as well. Regardless, it is critical for folks in these areas to
take this warning seriously and be prepared for significant wintry
impacts.

3. The start time of the Winter Storm Warning for Marshall, Jackson,
and DeKalb counties was moved up to NOW. The reasoning behind this is
that light freezing/drizzle will be moving in early this morning.
Ridgetops could start to see icing impacts shortly, especially in
Marshall and Jackson Counties. It`s a much more a complex situation
here where valleys are a few degrees above freezing and ridge tops
are below freezing. However, all locations will see wintry impacts by
later today and especially this evening and tonight.

4. Temperatures will vary during the event, depending on your
location. In fact, a brief change over to rain isn`t out of the
question in areas along and east of Interstate 65. Models continue
to "tease" a warm up to at or above freezing in these areas. While a
warming trend is likely, the values advertised by the models for a
large chunk of the area are likely overdone (as they have been for
several days). Thus, we continue to have confidence that most areas
will see significant winter impacts during the warning window.

5. Freezing rain will begin to overspread most of the region from
the SW over the next couple of hours and impacts will be felt
immediately in areas that are below freezing. The aforementioned
locations in the Ice Storm Warning will be primed for significant
ice accumulations and subsequently bigger travel and societal
impacts. Expect and prepare for hazardous travel for your morning
commute.

6. Regardless of where you live, hazardous travel impacts could last
well into Tuesday and potentially through Wednesday morning (when we
finally could warm up above freezing). Bottom line: With temperatures
not forecast to rise above freezing in most areas on Tuesday,
persons could be stuck where they are for as much as 24-48 hours.

7. Bitter cold air will filter into the region behind the arctic
front tonight, with temperatures dropping into the Teens late tonight
and Wind Chills in the single digits to near zero degrees in some
places. A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed in later forecast
updates.

8. Depending on the magnitude of ice accumulations and travel
impacts, power outages could persist in some rural areas for a few
days. The combination of bitter cold temperatures tonight into
Tuesday will make this particularly hazardous for those that do lose
power. Residents should be prepared and have an emergency supply kit
ready in the event of a long duration power outage.

Overall the main forecast change was high confidence in ice/sleet
accumulations and less so on snow. Our analysis shows a classic setup
for freezing rain, especially across northwest Alabama and areas in
the Ice Storm Warning. A warm nose aloft of +5-7C at 850-925 mb
combined with surface temperatures in the mid to upper 20s means
we`re especially primed for icing in these areas. The window for
ice/sleet accumulations will vary by location, with the morning into
early afternoon being favored in northwest Alabama, the mid/late
morning and afternoon in north central Alabama and southern middle
Tennessee, and the afternoon/evening in northeast Alabama. Regardless
of what warning type you`re in or the main timing of the impacts,
this doesn`t change our overall message of hazardous and potentially
dangerous winter weather conditions being expected.
 
SouthATLwx said:
In fact, I'm not convinced the 06z NAM isn't heavy snow for the northern part of DFW. And if so, it would be looking at double digit totals easily.

It's showing impressive instability (steep mid-level lapse rates and even some CAPE) for convection. With the intense Omega shown in the DGZ, snow may be break through that max warm layer of 2*C, especially when accounting for wet bulbing.

But I'm over-analyzing one run of a mediocre model. No since in going full ? right now. :)
Click to expand...

This isn’t the right thread for DFW storm #2, but I’ll address it here since it was mentioned. The mediocre at best NAM tends to overdo qpf significantly. The GFS, Euro, and CMC have under 0.50” of qpf. So, even if pure snow, that likely would produce less than 5”. The GFS remains a very close call with the 0C 850 line crossing over parts of DFW metro. After snow to start, it has mainly sleet the rest of the storm. If that plays out, it would be closer to 2” at most. But, 2” of mainly sleet on top of what’s already there along with frigid air/ground temps would be very hazardous!
 
Last edited:
13z hrrr IS Blazing
4ea92f82557940327fda83b5911066aa.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
crecre9 said:
NWS HUN AFD: TLDR: They are still riding with temps at the surface cooling enough to support significant icing across N central AL today. Its also why they changed us from Winter Storm Warning to Ice Storm Warning.

000
FXUS64 KHUN 151144
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
544 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

.UPDATE...
For 12Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 449 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Significant winter storm is underway across the across the Tennessee
Valley, with major travel and other societal impacts expected for a
vast majority of the region. Despite the "lull" in precipitation
early this morning, this has the making of a hazardous and
potentially dangerous winter event. This will especially be true for
much of northwest and north central Alabama where a significant ice
event appears more likely.

As is the case with many winter events in our region, the
forecast remains very complex even as we`re underway. This is due to
the fact that the vertical temperature profile and subsequently
precipitation types and impacts will vary depending on your location.
Because of this, there were some changes with this updated package.
We`ve tried to highlight this with some key messages below:

1. An upgrade to an Ice Storm Warning was done across northwest and
much of north central Alabama. This replaces the Winter Storm
Warning. Significant ice accumulations and impacts will be felt in
these areas. Moreover, the predominant precipitation type in these
areas will be freezing rain (with sleet and/or light snow and rain
mixing in at times), depending on your location. Treacherous travel
conditions are expected in these areas with heavy icing leading to
some tree and power line damage.

2. A Winter Storm Warning remains in place for all of southern middle
Tennessee and northeast Alabama. Confidence is still high that
widespread, significant impacts due to ice, sleet, and light snow
accumulations will occur in those areas. However, they will be less
so than areas to the south and west and ice accumulations will be
less as well. Regardless, it is critical for folks in these areas to
take this warning seriously and be prepared for significant wintry
impacts.

3. The start time of the Winter Storm Warning for Marshall, Jackson,
and DeKalb counties was moved up to NOW. The reasoning behind this is
that light freezing/drizzle will be moving in early this morning.
Ridgetops could start to see icing impacts shortly, especially in
Marshall and Jackson Counties. It`s a much more a complex situation
here where valleys are a few degrees above freezing and ridge tops
are below freezing. However, all locations will see wintry impacts by
later today and especially this evening and tonight.

4. Temperatures will vary during the event, depending on your
location. In fact, a brief change over to rain isn`t out of the
question in areas along and east of Interstate 65. Models continue
to "tease" a warm up to at or above freezing in these areas. While a
warming trend is likely, the values advertised by the models for a
large chunk of the area are likely overdone (as they have been for
several days). Thus, we continue to have confidence that most areas
will see significant winter impacts during the warning window.

5. Freezing rain will begin to overspread most of the region from
the SW over the next couple of hours and impacts will be felt
immediately in areas that are below freezing. The aforementioned
locations in the Ice Storm Warning will be primed for significant
ice accumulations and subsequently bigger travel and societal
impacts. Expect and prepare for hazardous travel for your morning
commute.

6. Regardless of where you live, hazardous travel impacts could last
well into Tuesday and potentially through Wednesday morning (when we
finally could warm up above freezing). Bottom line: With temperatures
not forecast to rise above freezing in most areas on Tuesday,
persons could be stuck where they are for as much as 24-48 hours.

7. Bitter cold air will filter into the region behind the arctic
front tonight, with temperatures dropping into the Teens late tonight
and Wind Chills in the single digits to near zero degrees in some
places. A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed in later forecast
updates.

8. Depending on the magnitude of ice accumulations and travel
impacts, power outages could persist in some rural areas for a few
days. The combination of bitter cold temperatures tonight into
Tuesday will make this particularly hazardous for those that do lose
power. Residents should be prepared and have an emergency supply kit
ready in the event of a long duration power outage.

Overall the main forecast change was high confidence in ice/sleet
accumulations and less so on snow. Our analysis shows a classic setup
for freezing rain, especially across northwest Alabama and areas in
the Ice Storm Warning. A warm nose aloft of +5-7C at 850-925 mb
combined with surface temperatures in the mid to upper 20s means
we`re especially primed for icing in these areas. The window for
ice/sleet accumulations will vary by location, with the morning into
early afternoon being favored in northwest Alabama, the mid/late
morning and afternoon in north central Alabama and southern middle
Tennessee, and the afternoon/evening in northeast Alabama. Regardless
of what warning type you`re in or the main timing of the impacts,
this doesn`t change our overall message of hazardous and potentially
dangerous winter weather conditions being expected.
Click to expand...

I love winter and am royally pissed the eastern SE missed out here, but why in the world would anyone want an ice storm? They are miserable and good for nothing ... If you lived through the 1973 ice storm in Atlanta, you would think twice before wishing for one...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top