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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Storm5 said:
LOL the HRRR has parts of NC cold than Huntsville at 18z . Going to be interesting to see how it verifies
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This this this.....models really picking up on the torch. Whether or not it happens is the question, but based on my experiences, this is the more logical outcome, with a massive rush of cold air, drizzle, etc as the low pulls away NE. Cutting lows, unless cutting through eastern GA, do not work for AL. Need that west to east component of the LP track....the ole Southern Slider.
 
Heavy sleeting out here. Temperatures rose slightly to 32 from 29 during the overnight, but I'm now down to 26. Winds out of the northwest from the arctic front. I wonder what my chances of switching to snow are.
 
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Jason Simpson:Quick update on expectations as of 7:15 AM Monday:
The yellow-dashed line I've added is roughly the eastern limit of where the worst of this freezing rain accumulation will be through midday. I say "roughly" because I there will be some spots in western Jackson and western Marshall Counties where elevation plays a role like Brindlee Mountain and Cumberland Mountain (where we already have some ice problems).
This storm system is still in the 'deepening' phase: pressure dropping in the main low near the coast. The strengthening low will shift the wind to the east (coming from Georgia across Alabama), and that will be just enough to keep MOST of Northeast Alabama out of the ice through midday. Huntsville is on the dividing line between wet and icy, and some of it depends on elevation (Monte Sano, Green, Huntsville and Keel Mountains).
My yellow line is an estimate of where I think we transition from ice to rain completely by midday. If you are to the right (east), it's mostly wet. If you are to the left (west), you're iced in with up to 1/2" of freezing rain. Eventually, it changes to sleet and snow in the afternoon; snow accumulations will be limited by the mixture, but it's possible that up to 2" of snow could come down northwest of Florence and Muscle Shoals; it won't be that much to the east.
This is a game of miles and degrees. There's no way to know every road's condition, so the best advice is if you're in the Ice Storm or Winter Storm Warning, stay put today.
 
Storm5 said:
Wait till the east / sE wind kicks up . Then we will see how it plays out


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Reality has to set in at some point. Surface winds are it....it’s as simple as finding a flag, and knowing which way is north. Any easterly component to the flags position and you are warming....period.
 
I'm surprised they issued a Hard Freeze Warning for AL. You would think by Mid Feb there would have been so many hard freezes that they wouldnt still be issuing them.
 
From Huntsville Police Department.
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Traffic Alert: The Huntsville Police Department is currently working multiple wrecks in the City due to patchy ice in various areas. Stay home if you can, and only go out on the roads if you must.
 
Arcc said:
Temps warming to 31-32 from 28-30 over North AL will make a huge difference toward outcome.

Edit: Really applies to ZR.
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It will make the most difference on the roads. But based on ATL ZR experiences, that wouldn’t be enough to help much as far as ice accretion on above ground objects, especially if it doesn’t get above 31.

Edit: example: the great ZR of 1973 had temps near 31 for most of it.
 
The closest weather station to me is still reading 31°, but I don't see any icing. Stations at lower elevations are running just above freezing. We just don't seem to ever get the ingredients together here for significant icing from freezing rain. I have lived at this location for 25 years and have never seen anything other than minor glazing that lasted a short time. We did have a lot of sleet in the January 2011 winter storm. I think Birmingham had a decent ice storm in Feb 1996, but I was in North Carolina at that time. I have lived in the Birmingham region all but two winters since 1988 and have never experienced any significant ice. Now that I've said this, we'll probably have a massive one!
 
Even though DFW official measurement was 4” of snow through midnight, it continued to snow lightly to sometimes moderately most of the rest of the night to the tune of .05” more of liquid equivalent. With the very high ratios, it is possible that the better part of another inch fell. We’ll see what their final total ends up being.
 
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