Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

[Dewpoint Dan]

On the plus side, it seems to be an outlier relative to the other Hi-Res models.

In fact, 2 of the HRW models still show a solid 5-7", and 1 other HRW model shows 4-6". The 18z RGEM also showed 4-6".

I'm pretty confident DFW gets at least 4".

 

[NorthDFWwx]

I'm pretty confident DFW gets at least 4".

Still not 100% confident on that, because of the funky way the best forcing seems to evolve with this system. It even seems conceivable that DFW could be "screw holed" to the NW and SE with the heavier snow amounts.

That said, 3-4" seems like a safer bet.

 

[Storm5]

12k and 3k nam suck for all of Alabama except the NW corner

1-3 so far at 00z


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[accu35]

I know models shuffle around, but my Lord this is gonna be a hugh winter storm for the deep south. I'm calling for a little freezing rain at home but I'm literally 30 min from something major.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

 

[accu35]

12k and 3k nam suck for all of Alabama except the NW corner

1-3 so far at 00z


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Nam has be north from the get go, right?

 

[TheBatman]

12k and 3k nam suck for all of Alabama except the NW corner

1-3 so far at 00z


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Didn't know 12k and 3k would count for 2 different nams..

 

[StormStalker]

12k and 3k nam suck for all of Alabama except the NW corner

1-3 so far at 00z


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3k still looking like a decent hit here to the west.

 

[DadOfJax]

12k and 3k nam suck for all of Alabama except the NW corner

1-3 so far at 00z


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Pretty much what I was afraid of....it was bound to start back NW.

 

[Stormlover]

Didn't know 12k and 3k would count for 2 different nams..

They shouldn't. It's one outlier.

 

[accu35]

Pretty much what I was afraid of....it was bound to start back NW.

Its been NW all day. Nothing changed

 

[JLL1973]

12k and 3k nam suck for all of Alabama except the NW corner

1-3 so far at 00z


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Sucks for me to. Look at that band of heavy ice in east ms

 

[DadOfJax]

Didn't know 12k and 3k would count for 2 different nams..

Definitely....2 different sets of algorithms.

 

[Storm5]

Pretty much what I was afraid of....it was bound to start back NW.

It’s always been NW for the last 36 hours . It’s the same track it’s had five or take


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[Brent]

Still not 100% confident on that, because of the funky way the best forcing seems to evolve with this system. It even seems conceivable that DFW could be "screw holed" to the NW and SE with the heavier snow amounts.

That said, 3-4" seems like a safer bet.

Yeah that dry slot has been bugging me all day but I still think our ratios and how cold it's been helps us

Also can we get morning accumulation that plays a huge role too if we do we could see the higher totals

 

[olhausen]

Daddy like!

 

[malak05]

12k and 3k nam suck for all of Alabama except the NW corner

1-3 so far at 00z


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I mean its at this moment the only model who hasn't made adjustments to a low cutting later and further south. We shall see how shakes out doesn't the NAM have a tendency to overamp this would perhaps explain the sharper low cutting?

 

[NWMSGuy]

NAM 0Z Kuchera: “Alright Mr. DeMille, I’m ready for my close up.”

 

[accu35]

0z 3km Nam snow shifted east a little vrs 18z

 

[SD]

Didn't know 12k and 3k would count for 2 different nams..

Besides the resolution differences I believe the convection parametrization is different. With the 3k nested within the 12k they are they are similar but not the same.