Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
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wow, and that's only 3PM when the watch starts here
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What a lazy ass AFD from KBMX copy and paste for the Sunday - Tuesday period . How stupid
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They have gotten bad about that with some of the forecasters there.
Here is Huntsville.
FXUS64 KHUN 132129
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
329 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021
.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021
Cloudy and very cold conditions continue near and west of a line from
Winchester, TN to Vinemont, AL. East of this line, temperatures are
in the mid 30s to lower 40s. A stalled front remains in place stretching
from northern Georgia into southern Alabama at this time. Some
patchy fog (freezing fog west of that Winchester, TN to Vinemont, AL
line) is occurring as well with cloud bases dropping below 500 feet.
Expect this to continue, before cloud bases lift around 10 PM above
1500 feet and fog lifts.
Lows will drop a bit more overnight with some colder air seeping
south behind the front. Lows west of the I-65 corridor look to drop
into the lower to mid 20s and further east into the lower to mid 30s.
Most areas near/west of the Winchester, TN to near the Guntersville,
AL area could have some lingering icy spots on elevated locations,
overpasses, and on some bridges.
.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021
Thankfully we expect a continued but short lived break from
precipitation on Sunday as well. Very isolated and light freezing
rain may push back into the area in the afternoon, but not impacts
are expected due to low coverage and confidence in this occurring.
Mainly because forcing seems to remain above the saturated portion of
the atmosphere. With the very cold air in place and cloud cover
remaining in place north of the front over northwest Alabama, highs
look to only make it into the lower to mid 30s near and west of the
I-65 corridor, especially with only minor breaks in cloud cover
expected in the afternoon. Near and south of the front, it will
briefly warm up again keeping temperatures significantly warmer near
and east of that area (primarily 40-48 degree range).
However, stronger forcing and deeper moisture moves into NW Alabama
Sunday evening, as a shortwave moves east into the area. Temperatures
look to drop back into the upper 20s to lower 30s in northwest
Alabama and southern middle Tennessee by the early evening hours.
Between 7 and 10 AM, expect precipitation to develop in northeast
Mississippi and move northeast and affect these areas. This should
start out as freezing rain and continue before pushing northeast into
TN overnight. 1/10 to 2/10 of an inch of ice accumulation is
possible in northwestern Alabama.
Most guidance pushes this front north of the area on late Sunday
night into Monday morning. Then an area of low pressure that
develops in the northern Gulf of Mexico pushes northeast into
northwest Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday.
strong forcing and heavier precipitation ranging from 0.5 to .75
inches is shown by several models. The bad part is that we continue
to stay on the cold side of the system and expect another round of
icing as freezing rain quickly develop Sunday evening as a result.
This could mix with sleet and snow at times. Expect another 1/10 to
2/10 of an inch of additional icing possible in most locations along
with one to three inches of snowfall from southern middle Tennessee
southwest into northwestern Alabama. Areas further east are a little
more suspect concerning whether winter storm criteria will be met.
However, in locations from Cullman county north to Madison county,
this seems possible more in a window from 3 PM through the overnight
hours on Monday. Further east, a tenth of an inch of ice and a few
hundreths of an inch of snow seems more in line. Thus, a winter
weather watch is not in effect for those counties. This looks to be a
particularly dangerous icing setup possibly for northwestern Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee Sunday night into Monday evening.
FXUS64 KHUN 132129
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
329 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021
.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021
Cloudy and very cold conditions continue near and west of a line from
Winchester, TN to Vinemont, AL. East of this line, temperatures are
in the mid 30s to lower 40s. A stalled front remains in place stretching
from northern Georgia into southern Alabama at this time. Some
patchy fog (freezing fog west of that Winchester, TN to Vinemont, AL
line) is occurring as well with cloud bases dropping below 500 feet.
Expect this to continue, before cloud bases lift around 10 PM above
1500 feet and fog lifts.
Lows will drop a bit more overnight with some colder air seeping
south behind the front. Lows west of the I-65 corridor look to drop
into the lower to mid 20s and further east into the lower to mid 30s.
Most areas near/west of the Winchester, TN to near the Guntersville,
AL area could have some lingering icy spots on elevated locations,
overpasses, and on some bridges.
.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021
Thankfully we expect a continued but short lived break from
precipitation on Sunday as well. Very isolated and light freezing
rain may push back into the area in the afternoon, but not impacts
are expected due to low coverage and confidence in this occurring.
Mainly because forcing seems to remain above the saturated portion of
the atmosphere. With the very cold air in place and cloud cover
remaining in place north of the front over northwest Alabama, highs
look to only make it into the lower to mid 30s near and west of the
I-65 corridor, especially with only minor breaks in cloud cover
expected in the afternoon. Near and south of the front, it will
briefly warm up again keeping temperatures significantly warmer near
and east of that area (primarily 40-48 degree range).
However, stronger forcing and deeper moisture moves into NW Alabama
Sunday evening, as a shortwave moves east into the area. Temperatures
look to drop back into the upper 20s to lower 30s in northwest
Alabama and southern middle Tennessee by the early evening hours.
Between 7 and 10 AM, expect precipitation to develop in northeast
Mississippi and move northeast and affect these areas. This should
start out as freezing rain and continue before pushing northeast into
TN overnight. 1/10 to 2/10 of an inch of ice accumulation is
possible in northwestern Alabama.
Most guidance pushes this front north of the area on late Sunday
night into Monday morning. Then an area of low pressure that
develops in the northern Gulf of Mexico pushes northeast into
northwest Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday.
strong forcing and heavier precipitation ranging from 0.5 to .75
inches is shown by several models. The bad part is that we continue
to stay on the cold side of the system and expect another round of
icing as freezing rain quickly develop Sunday evening as a result.
This could mix with sleet and snow at times. Expect another 1/10 to
2/10 of an inch of additional icing possible in most locations along
with one to three inches of snowfall from southern middle Tennessee
southwest into northwestern Alabama. Areas further east are a little
more suspect concerning whether winter storm criteria will be met.
However, in locations from Cullman county north to Madison county,
this seems possible more in a window from 3 PM through the overnight
hours on Monday. Further east, a tenth of an inch of ice and a few
hundreths of an inch of snow seems more in line. Thus, a winter
weather watch is not in effect for those counties. This looks to be a
particularly dangerous icing setup possibly for northwestern Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee Sunday night into Monday evening.
18z gfs
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Close for the bhan metro. Keeps on trending colder. Mid 20's for hsv with freezing rain and sleet for hsv. Wow.18z gfs
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You can see the slow trend with still time to evolve... most still have it cutting into south GA but if thst starts leveling off then all bets are off
With them Temps. More then likely northwest Alabama would be all snow.
Snow Amounts:
This afternoon`s forecast update has bumped up forecast snowfall
totals, but not for reasons that are typical to North and Central
Texas. The synoptic pattern is atypical of a "heavy snow producer"
with the difference being the very cold air that has been in place
now for several days. Forecast soundings indicate strong forcing
and saturation within multiple dendritic growth zones. This will
favor the development of dendrite snow crystals that then fall
into a near isothermal layer...further growing as they aggregate
ice...then return into a dendritic growth zone above the surface
further growing the snow crystals. These microphysical processes
will favor a low-density and high snow-ratio (10-15:1) compared
the typical heavy wet snow (5-10:1) we get here. This will allow
for snow to accumulate quickly and even allow for snow drifts to
develop with blowing snow. It`s still unknown how high the drifts
will be, but expect drifts on any north-facing elevations.
This afternoon`s forecast update has bumped up forecast snowfall
totals, but not for reasons that are typical to North and Central
Texas. The synoptic pattern is atypical of a "heavy snow producer"
with the difference being the very cold air that has been in place
now for several days. Forecast soundings indicate strong forcing
and saturation within multiple dendritic growth zones. This will
favor the development of dendrite snow crystals that then fall
into a near isothermal layer...further growing as they aggregate
ice...then return into a dendritic growth zone above the surface
further growing the snow crystals. These microphysical processes
will favor a low-density and high snow-ratio (10-15:1) compared
the typical heavy wet snow (5-10:1) we get here. This will allow
for snow to accumulate quickly and even allow for snow drifts to
develop with blowing snow. It`s still unknown how high the drifts
will be, but expect drifts on any north-facing elevations.
