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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

6z GFS creeped the freezing rain line a little further east in AL for the Monday/Tuesday system
 
HSV AFD for long term this morning

A strong, amplified trough will dig south into the Mid-South and
Tennessee Valley region, sending a secondary arctic front (and its
associated air mass) into the area Sunday night into Monday, before
stalling. How far south and east this feature makes it will have a
big impact on our weather and its potential wintry impacts early next
week. Ahead of this feature, isentropic lift will generate scattered
showers that will lift from north to south across the region. A
glance at soundings once again indicates that this precipitation
will mainly fall as liquid rain despite the cold air aloft. This
will be due to a pronounced warm nose as warm as +5-6C at 850-925 mb.
What would be problematic for our area is that surface temperatures
will plunge into the mid to upper 20s across middle Tennessee and
northwest and north central Alabama -- meaning that precipitation
would fall as freezing rain. With several hours of subfreezing
temperatures at the surface, ice accretion appears to be more likely
in this scenario, especially for areas along and west of the I-65
corridor. Global ensembles and the NBM blended guidance gives us
confidence to believe that some ice accretion and societal impacts
are plausible during this late Sunday night into Monday window. The
uncertainty still lies with where this this arctic front will stall
and this will directly determine the spatial area/impact of freezing
rain as well as the duration of the event.

With this arctic front (and cold, subfreezing air) pushing further
east, yet another round of wintry precipitation may take place Monday
night the stronger synoptic lift from the approaching will generate
more numerous to widespread precipitation. Depending on the magnitude
of the warm nose aloft (and the surface temperature profile), this
precipitation could fall as snow, sleet, freezing rain, or rain (or a
combination of all of them at some point). Obviously, if temperatures
are colder aloft, this would result in snow and potentially some
light snow accumulations. This would be a particularly rough scenario
given possible ice accumulations that would have already occurred,
resulting in possibly some greater societal impacts. It is important
to stress that with this still being 4-5 days out, confidence is
still quite low. Some fluctuations on the location and timing of the
front will have a big impact on precipitation type and impacts. We`ll
need to figure these details out in the coming days (among other
things). But regardless, this is definitely something to watch. Pay
attention to the forecast this weekend.

Expect a period of dry (and cold weather) Tuesday into Wednesday, but
with a semi-modified arctic air mass in place, we`re not totally out
of the woods yet. Another disturbance late in the week may bring
some additional round of at least light wintry precipitation (or
rain if things trend a little warmer). Again, the day 6-7 portion of
the forecast is highly uncertain and dependent on variables that are
not yet resolved.
 
Poimen said:
I'm not saying it's wrong, but the ICON has been the leader of head fakes for cold east of the mountains throughout this tiring ordeal.
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Yea, it is completely on it's own now with the op models. Are there even any icy ens members left east of the mountains??
 
I'm down to 36F this morning. NWS had forecast a low of 41 for this morning, so this air mass is already showing me that it's being undermodeled in its strength. With overcast skies, plenty of CAA today and scattered showers around, I just don't see the temperature rising much today.
 
Hopefully, the past couple of drier runs were a fluke.

06z GFS was a bit wetter again for Monday, with the bullseye now just north of DFW versus well into OK.

BTW, the NAM is hinting we might have to keep an eye out for a surprise snowfall Saturday night.
 
Poimen said:
I'm not saying it's wrong, but the ICON has been the leader of head fakes for cold east of the mountains throughout this tiring ordeal.
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I dunno its been the most consistent model at least, its pretty much had this look since it came into range....though it seems very unlikely its right and the EURO and GFS are both wrong when they agree on the cutter solution....if it ends up correct it will be a major win for it......though again it seems very very unlikely the ICON is right versus everyone else at this point.
 
Downeastnc said:
I dunno its been the most consistent model at least, its pretty much had this look since it came into range....though it seems very unlikely its right and the EURO and GFS are both wrong when they agree on the cutter solution....if it ends up correct it will be a major win for it......though again it seems very very unlikely the ICON is right versus everyone else at this point.
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Only reason I would keep an eye open for it is bc the euro and Gfs have been notorious for driving LP in CAD which isn’t going to happen. Only the 6Z GFS now has the low coming directly over the Carolinas instead of west of the APPS and the GFS is awful when it comes to CAD because of its resolution and although the euro is better, it’s honestly not all that great either. And all of our storm systems have trended colder the closer we have gotten to them, as does CAD usually. Just something to remember, the airmass has been severely under modeled and the CAD will be goin over fresh snowpack which would likely take some of those temps anyways. Not saying we’re going to get ice here but it’s one of the reasons I haven’t written this one off yet
 
Brent said:
Euro has more snow to the north and south of me #troll Wednesday is all south

View attachment 74149
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LovingGulfLows said:
Keep in mind, you would be nearly doubling those totals since your ratios will be around 18-20:1 rather than 10:1 so that's more like 6-8 inches of snow accumulation being conservative here.
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Brent said:
It's also the Euro which has been absolutely terrible this week lol
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Not to mention, the 00z EURO is actually a bit wetter than the 12z run.

And it's funny because if it were any other season, 3-4" would be an impressive snowfall for Texas. :p
 
Brent said:
The TWC app has not budged on the snow totals for Sunday Night but the temperature forecasts continue to be nothing short of incredible won't find many days as cold as Monday and then Tuesday Night comes...View attachment 74159View attachment 74161View attachment 74162
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This is literally heart breaking to watch. I am excited for ya Brent! I hope you guys out west pull out a fantastic storm. If this comes to pass, you'll be telling your grandkids about the 2021 artic snow.
 
06z RGEM, which has been the consistently driest model, has also come in significantly wetter.

It now shows a solid 2-4" for DFW.
 
smast16 said:
This is literally heart breaking to watch. I am excited for ya Brent! I hope you guys out west pull out a fantastic storm. If this comes to pass, you'll be telling your grandkids about the 2021 artic snow.
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The only thing I hate is most of the snow looks to come through in the middle of the night.

That's good for efficient accumulation, but not the best time for viewing.
 
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