Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

[SASQUATCH]

ICON keeping West Central AL on the borderline.

 

[tennessee storm]

Based of 12z nam Memphis gets plastered

 

[Stormlover]

 

[NWMSGuy]

Would we be expecting higher snow ratios with the colder air than what is being modeled?

 

[Storm5]

Gfs CRUSHES Memphis


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[Storm5]

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[tucker]

we are getting some small sleet mixing in here in Chattanooga right now... We are suppose to hit 50 today, but haven't broke 39 yet.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is the first legit trend to a stronger southeast ridge I’ve seen this year

 

[Pup12]

We’re supposed to be at 40 right now but only 33. I know I’m grasping for straws at this point but maybe the warm layers are being overdone. Keep fighting little cold front!

 

[cyclogent]

12z ICON:
warmest temp for Memphis thru 180 hours: 31
coldest temp for Charlotte thru 180 hours: 32

insane pattern




.

 

[Snownut]

As for most east of the Mountains mon/Tues, This is going to be Rain. Doesn't even look like there's going to be much CAD at all. Everything but the ICON is pointing to 40s

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[FamouslyHot]

Yesterday there was some discussion about differences in resolution of the Apps on the models so I thought this cross-section would help demonstrate some difference. Note the mountains are much smoother on the GFS vs 3k nam. You can also see how the 3k NAM picks up on the CAD a bit better. There is a shallow freezing layer east of the mountains that is not present on the GFS. I'm not too sure about the significance of the Theta-e difference between the two. Maybe someone smarter than I am could explain.

 

[Tobiewx]

Would we be expecting higher snow ratios with the colder air than what is being modeled?

I would think probably between 15:1 to 20:1 maybe, closer to 15:1 is what I would expect.

 

[cyclogent]

near zero in Dallas while it's 60s in Greensboro. I have officially seen it all now lol. truly historic pattern

 

[Stormlover]

according to the GFS, 13:1 to 19:1 is the range for memphis snow during the event there

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

near zero in Dallas while it's 60s in Greensboro. I have officially seen it all now lol. truly historic pattern
View attachment 74242

Looks like New Orleans is 40 degrees colder than Greensboro.

 

[Flotown]

according to the GFS, 13:1 to 19:1 is the range for memphis snow during the event there

You think us here in nbama gonna get any sleet and snow or just all zr??

 

[Stormlover]

You think us here in nbama gonna get any sleet and snow or just all zr??

I can hope it's sleet and snow, but GFS says half an inch of ice..and in the shoals, two rounds of 3/10 ice followed by 4/10 ice

 

[SASQUATCH]

CMC holding firm on running that surface low through southern GA.

 

[NWMSGuy]

according to the GFS, 13:1 to 19:1 is the range for memphis snow during the event there

Would that put most close to a foot of snow?