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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

The only way I see winter weather happening in the upstate would be for these globals to be really missing the strength of Cold air in the CAD areas. The short range models should tell the tale on that. Otherwise we dodge an ice storm and get cold rain.

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Based on past events of this nature, I would humbly suggest models are downplaying the available moisture for the system on Monday, and even overrunning moisture before that date. I think many may be surprised at some of the effects, especially in the western south.
 
Bsud said:
The only way I see winter weather happening in the upstate would be for these globals to be really missing the strength of Cold air in the CAD areas. The short range models should tell the tale on that. Otherwise we dodge an ice storm and get cold rain.

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They do 97% of the time. I am waiting for the NAM and all the other short range models to start getting into range before I decide to jump the cliff. I am not really buying into any sort of svr weather either. CAD has overperformed all winter and the only reason we haven't scored yet is because of lack of snow pack up north. We have that now. Not saying we get winter wx but that TPV is key and models have no idea what to do with it. Somone mentioned yesterday that upper lever conditions are favorable for it to move more east going forward.
 
Many folks much smarter than I have argued that the models seem to struggle with the PV. But we’ve now had near agreement and fairly consistent runs across most modeling for 48 hours or so. How can we prove they are struggling?


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Webberweather53 said:
The Euro is trending even worse for Carolina folks and this would start to shift things NW for places to our west. Probably won't trend far enough to avoid cold rain here though. :rolleyes:

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I am giving up on any wintry precip here for the most part. Its gonna take a pretty epic failure at this point for them to miss the PV placement. Now I want a dry slot and no rain please!
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro is trending even worse for Carolina folks and this would start to shift things NW for places to our west. Probably won't trend far enough to avoid cold rain here though. :rolleyes:

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Maybe if it keeps trending far enough West, it'll eventually circle the world in reverse & by Monday morning, the TPV is blasting cold air into the Southeast.
 
Just comparing the 12z NAM and the 6z GFS... Temps on Monday @ 00z are running 7-10 degrees lower on the NAM across North Georgia, but appears the push of cold air to the west is not as deep on the NAM. Splitting hairs I know, but looking at the short range models at this point, IMO, will give us a better look at what to expect.
 
This little guy off the coast of northern California & Oregon has been killing this setup for the Carolinas. It decided to dig more in the past several model cycles, pumping the heights over the central-eastern US in the medium range which forces our vortex to lift north into Canada instead of digging towards the Great Lakes

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By the time it gets to south Texas & northern Mexico, it's pumping the heights like crazy and keeping our vortex to the NW.

It'll get sampled by 12z tomorrow when it comes onshore, but these waves usually trend stronger once this happens. Hopefully, it's enough to turn this into severe out this way. Gotta be careful that this ridge doesn't balloon too much towards the northern US because it can trigger downstream development near Atlantic Canada instead of height rises everywhere, yielding (more) cold rain CAD for us.

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farleydawg792 said:
Just comparing the 12z NAM and the 6z GFS... Temps on Monday @ 00z are running 7-10 degrees lower on the NAM across North Georgia, but appears the push of cold air to the west is not as deep on the NAM. Splitting hairs I know, but looking at the short range models at this point, IMO, will give us a better look at what to expect.
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Those are my only hope right now. The globals are warming me up but they did with the January snowfall as well and it wasn't until were 48-72 hours out that the globals really started shifting that one. Saturday night will be my final straw moment.
 
Icon is nasty ice for many in the west
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