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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Brandoninchildersburg said:
Yes and it gets really confusing with all the storms gone were getting nothing comments from other areas with every model run
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Once we get a little more model consistency that'll probably stop anyway since people from certain areas will just stop posting once they are out. Regardless it's something we can consider going forward
 
Well the good doc is about to sing for the night..lol Do I hear cheers and boos? LMBO!
 
deltadog03 said:
Well, I imagine the DOC is going to be telling tonight. I guess we will probably loose some posters after tonights runs?
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Its tough to have faith in any model or trend right now.....for us here in the Carolinas we are still a solid 5-6 days from the most likely winter weather event if it were to occur. I wont write off anything till Sunday.....I have had many many winter storms that were modeled as big hits for days trend away in the last 24-36 hrs......be nice if every once in a while we had to opposite happen.
 
Well, I think the EURO is telling again. Outside of the extreme WNC, the rest of the Carolinas, GA and MOST of AL are mostly rain. Still a big storm west of there. This run looks a bit less qpf overall, but ya....I think the writing is starting to show up on the wall for this one. Still have some days to move things around, but starting to see a little more consistency.
 
SD said:
Once we get a little more model consistency that'll probably stop anyway since people from certain areas will just stop posting once they are out. Regardless it's something we can consider going forward
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In all fairness, some of our most informative posters are Carolina-Centric and it can get confusing sometimes. However, if we were to separate the factions I feel like those folks west of the apps may lose valuable info that helps them out as well. I dont think we could expect folks like Eric to post in both threads when it doesn't pertain to them. Just my two cents.
 
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So far the ICON, GFS, and GEFS have ticked back east some due to more separation with the wave expected to move into California. This resulted in the TPV being able to move slightly farther east before our system moved in, because of this temps were colder by a few degrees on these models and closer for people east of the apps. Here's the GEFS members p-types and looking at these there still looks to be a wide range of solutions from a very amped up low to barely anything.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel-1613023200-1613401200-1613520000-20.gif
 
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We just never got the push of cold that models were showing a few days ago and it really was the placement being too far west for the TPV to keep the SE ridge from poking it's ugly nose well into the people East of the Apps. For those west of the Apps, looks like you have some good opportunities to get some wintry precip (hope it is not ZR for you guys) so good luck!
 
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