• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Storm5 said:
This jasper like 30 minutes from Birmingham
8726fd200a492362cbf68d3441e042cb.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Could you check out Etowah county for me? This eastern side of Bama iS tricky.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Another deep H5 trof about to wavebreak under the block to give us more useless -NAO View attachment 73639
Click to expand...
OMG you have to stop stealing avatars. I am losing my mind. You got me with Birdman last week. Back to weather, I have no idea what to think. v16 GFS is best case with GEM a close second.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Mean was colder there as well
Control View attachment 73675
Click to expand...

4 Highs in this frame and I think there's another one back West, and the SER STILL showing it's head. The 1031 in PA is definitely a CAD high. If you want solid ice make it a 1035 and a 1040 plus gets you better stuff. Too bad the one over the great lakes isn't in Illinois or even Iowa. Man, so close to a great pattern.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Alright so a deep summary on what we want if we want a winter storm next week across CAD areas
First off, you initially want to start out with a TPV more East like what the euro has slowly been doing the last 4 runs, next up, the pacific wave that enters, you want that to be more separate from the TPV near MN because if there close, there’s a tug effect which leaves behind energy over the GLs (Vort tail) and ruins the eastward propagation of our CAD high (want that pacific wave to dig out west more) next up another thing that helps is a earlier phase with that secondary TPV coming out of Canada towards the NE, initially would help to have a more consolidated TPV (like the UKMET) but the earlier these things phase, the better. Honestly the hump I see right now is that left over vorticity tail that’s trying to hang back over the lakes on models because the pacific wave doesn’t dig enough and just moves more west to East initially View attachment 73660
Click to expand...
Interesting take. I've also been watching how that TPV near Baffin Island seems to be one of the main players of how our much talked about TPV will evolve in time. This featured showed up on the modeling about 3 days ago and has added yet another player into an already complicated forecast. Because that Baffin Island TPV is what opens up the southern vort and weakens it on its crawl eastward, I've assumed more separation, or a weaker northern feature was the key to a consolidated TPV further east. If the two do actually phase, the northern piece becomes dominant on the models I've looked at and doesn't drive the artic high as far south.

I don't have access to the UKMET maps of the northern hemisphere, so I'm intrigued as to where it phases those two.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top