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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

deltadog03 said:
Here is How I see it right now. GA and Carolinas got to hope we get the high over in time for CAD ZR or IP or both. My confidence in that is low, but still plenty of time to see how changes are going to work out. I really think this is an AL, TN, MS, LA TX and AR system. I have lived in TX and the blue norther is the real deal. I think that the Apps are going to work against us, and the TPV is shearing out and and not really making for a good CAD look. I know there is more time, and yes I am not giving up for GA and the Carolinas, but I think the trends are enough to see we might have wintry weather issues....Time will tell for sure though.
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I think with this variability we've seen that we have to infuse seasonal trends into the mix on what's happened as we get closer to the event date.

That being said ..
This is like trying to handle a stationary tropical cycle and the spaghetti plots spiral outward in every direction ...
 
Chazwin said:
Personally I think everything is still on the table with the respects to this system. Ultimately it’s going to come down to what ends up happening to that TPV lobe. If it’s held back then the CAD won’t be as strong and it’s pretty much rain. If the TPV moves SE to a good position, then CAD is much stronger and a significant winter storm is very much on the table. Right now we can’t get any clarity with that because we can continue to see such back and forth with the models. All we can do to any sort of real feel for it is seeing how it’s verifying compared to past model run... right compared to runs from 3 days ago the TPV is significantly more east than what those runs were indicating for this time period.
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And I think alot of this is Dependent on the Track of the Low, if its west of the apps we get thunderstorms, if it tracks east of the apps its major winter storm

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One thing to note here that will be interesting .. we all know global o a terrible job with low level cold and so the interesting this is the v16 is suppose to be upgraded to see those types of things better... maybe it’s sniffing it out like the others ... maybe not 58567C88-603C-4422-8665-B7D1DC00692B.jpeg
 
Storm5 said:
Improving for western bama.
4efee83d78a40aa79c033b337258472c.jpg



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The cold air is close enough that we have a chance. I guess that is all you can ask for.
 
Storm5 said:
Gfs is trending colder for west Alabama . Problem is , it’s all alone aside from the crappy CMC


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HUN is taking note of the CMC
The GFS remains the most aggressive
with this system, and would result in some pretty significant icing
over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The CMC seems to be
on board with this trend, and maybe more concerning, the ECMWF has
been hinting at a similar solution for the past 48 hours
 
Stormsfury said:
I think with this variability we've seen that we have to infuse seasonal trends into the mix on what's happened as we get closer to the event date.

That being said ..
This is like trying to handle a stationary tropical cycle and the spaghetti plots spiral outward in every direction ...
Click to expand...
It’s kinda reminiscent of how the models were doing with Hurricane Florence when it was slowing down on its approach to the coast. You had some models taking it back to sea, some heading for the MA/NE, some continuing it west, and some bringing it SW all the way to CHS and SAV
 
Alright so a deep summary on what we want if we want a winter storm next week across CAD areas
First off, you initially want to start out with a TPV more East like what the euro has slowly been doing the last 4 runs, next up, the pacific wave that enters, you want that to be more separate from the TPV near MN because if there close, there’s a tug effect which leaves behind energy over the GLs (Vort tail) and ruins the eastward propagation of our CAD high (want that pacific wave to dig out west more) next up another thing that helps is a earlier phase with that secondary TPV coming out of Canada towards the NE, initially would help to have a more consolidated TPV (like the UKMET) but the earlier these things phase, the better. Honestly the hump I see right now is that left over vorticity tail that’s trying to hang back over the lakes on models because the pacific wave doesn’t dig enough and just moves more west to East initially 0FC0F233-BF34-46F3-AA33-2DC12BBDBC7F.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Alright so a deep summary on what we want if we want a winter storm next week across CAD areas
First off, you initially want to start out with a TPV more East like what the euro has slowly been doing the last 4 runs, next up, the pacific wave that enters, you want that to be more separate from the TPV near MN because if there close, there’s a tug effect which leaves behind energy over the GLs (Vort tail) and ruins the eastward propagation of our CAD high (want that pacific wave to dig out west more) next up another thing that helps is a earlier phase with that secondary TPV coming out of Canada towards the NE, initially would help to have a more consolidated TPV (like the UKMET) but the earlier these things phase, the better. Honestly the hump I see right now is that left over vorticity tail that’s trying to hang back over the lakes on models because the pacific wave doesn’t dig enough and just moves more west to East initially View attachment 73660
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The avatar is killing me. I thought Brick was laying the goods all afternoon.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Alright so a deep summary on what we want if we want a winter storm next week across CAD areas
First off, you initially want to start out with a TPV more East like what the euro has slowly been doing the last 4 runs, next up, the pacific wave that enters, you want that to be more separate from the TPV near MN because if there close, there’s a tug effect which leaves behind energy over the GLs (Vort tail) and ruins the eastward propagation of our CAD high (want that pacific wave to dig out west more) next up another thing that helps is a earlier phase with that secondary TPV coming out of Canada towards the NE, initially would help to have a more consolidated TPV (like the UKMET) but the earlier these things phase, the better. Honestly the hump I see right now is that left over vorticity tail that’s trying to hang back over the lakes on models because the pacific wave doesn’t dig enough and just moves more west to East initially View attachment 73660
Click to expand...
yeah this doesn't sound like brick. tell me how things dont work like they use to etc
 
Stormsfury said:
I think with this variability we've seen that we have to infuse seasonal trends into the mix on what's happened as we get closer to the event date.

That being said ..
This is like trying to handle a stationary tropical cycle and the spaghetti plots spiral outward in every direction ...
Click to expand...
Very good point. Plus seasonal trends say we (including you) have a shot still
 
deltadog03 said:
Very good point. Plus seasonal trends say we (including you) have a shot still
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I would say seasonal trends have been to slow the progression of arctic air over the mountains (have we even had any arctic air this side of the mountains yet?). But also, the trends have not been to have big cutters, SE ridge intrusions and severe weather either.

Gun to head, we see a Miller B with icing in the typical CAD regions of NE GA, Upstate NC, and western NC. For those areas, my guess would be non-destructive icing, although this one has the *potential* to be a higher impact ice event than we've seen so far.

I would be inclined to take the big super CAD off the table, while acknowledging that it isn't completely impossible.
 
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