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Pattern June Presented by: Heat and Humidity

J.C. said:
Looks like KATL may have had their first 90F of the year today.
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There is a decent correlation between the hottest before July 1 and the hottest for the rest of the summer. If I’m recalling correctly, the average hottest for before July 1 is near 94. The average hottest after July 1 is near 96. If we can keep the hottest at ATL before July 1 in the 90-91 range, that would bode well for chances of the summer never going out of control heat-wise in most of the SE US. Far from a perfect correlation, but there’s decent correlation. The main reason for the correlation is soil moisture.
 
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GaWx said:
There is a decent correlation between the hottest before July 1 and the hottest for the rest of the summer. If I’m recalling correctly, the average hottest for before July 1 is near 94. The average hottest after July 1 is near 96. If we can keep the hottest at ATL in the 90-91 range, that would bode well for chances of the summer never going out of control heat-wise in most of the SE US. Far from a perfect correlation, but there’s decent correlation. The main reason for the correlation is soil moisture.
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Interesting stat, and it makes complete sense if you think about it, and it is the main reason I loathe dry Junes.
 
How about some underwater shots I want to see the under the sea at night thanks
 
We had a good rain yesterday evening late, around 1 inch. Calling for same thing again this evening.

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drfranklin said:
That's incredible...where are you located...there are so few Dark Skies in the Southeast (I only know of a few areas: one in SC, one in GA, and far SW FL)
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A lot of the NC barrier islands are uninhabited , much of the Cape Hatteras national seashore which is over 100 miles long ! And then a few other spots , I’m surprised north topsail is one of those spots would have thought all the golf course ,home developments for old retired yanks , and strip malls popping up along 40 140 and 17 would have ruined that . Check out pictures online of Ocracoke at night !
 
FallsLake said:
Well with summer solstice past us now the daylight will slowly start getting shorter with each passing day. Of course the average temperatures will continue to rise until ~July 21st. But still, at least the "furnace" is now being turned down.
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We are on the right track now. Just gotta be patient.
 
SD said:
Not entirely sure we avoid this guy
View attachment 43116
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The good news for those don't like intense heat is that even if this were to occur and it would be AN, it would give the warmest anomalies in the NE rather than in the SE since the SE would have a component of wind direction from off the Atlantic thanks to the high being centered to the north. This would result in highs mainly 90-95 rather than mainly 95-100 later that day with scattered convection especially further south in the SE. I'd think that the RH/dewpoint would be the more uncomfortable factor than the temp. Of course, this being day 10 on an operational means we know it will change a lot from run to run. And even if it were to verify closely, it could easily be just a short term deal.

Edit: Also, I should note that the Euro/EPS cold bias at day 10 has recently been minimal in the SE US. So, the bias correction wouldn't be warmer thankfully.

1592767027850.png
 
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The Euro is awful west of I-77 in NC and SC. Very dry and hot. The GFS is not much better. If not for the wet winter and spring the western Carolinas would be in big trouble.
 
GaWx said:
The good news for those don't like intense heat is that even if this were to occur and it would be AN, it would give the warmest anomalies in the NE rather than in the SE since the SE would have a component of wind direction from off the Atlantic thanks to the high being centered to the north. This would result in highs mainly 90-95 rather than mainly 95-100 later that day with scattered convection especially further south in the SE. I'd think that the RH/dewpoint would be the more uncomfortable factor than the temp. Of course, this being day 10 on an operational means we know it will change a lot from run to run. And even if it were to verify closely, it could easily be just a short term deal.

Edit: Also, I should note that the Euro/EPS cold bias at day 10 has recently been minimal in the SE US. So, the bias correction wouldn't be warmer thankfully.
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Yeah interesting enough the hottest day is well before the ridge sets up

sfct.us_ma (3).png
 
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JHS said:
The Euro is awful west of I-77 in NC and SC. Very dry and hot. The GFS is not much better. If not for the wet winter and spring the western Carolinas would be in big trouble.
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The W Carolinas still don't have much to worry about in the short term per this up to date soil moisture anomaly map with ~2" wetter than normal:

1592768349910.png
 
Further to the above wet map, this map shows that the W Carolinas are wetter than 70-95% of past June 20ths.

Aside: this may be the primary reason the SE doesn't get a long-lasting heatwave this summer even if La Nina develops. Most of the E 2/3 of NC and NE SC as well as SE GA are wetter than 99% of past June 20ths! None of the SE is dry:

1592770255752.png
 
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