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Pattern June Presented by: Heat and Humidity

I at least hope some of this takes place. More often than not, for me, I watch those clusters form in the corners regions of WV,VA, N TN, and the storms make it down to the Winston Salem area and then fizzle out before reaching the Triangle area. Last one I remember (2012 I believe) when we had the pattern, none made it past Alamance/Randolph area. That was a rough ride with temps in the upper 90's/low 100's and no afternoon storms.
 
Avalanche said:
I at least hope some of this takes place. More often than not, for me, I watch those clusters form in the corners regions of WV,VA, N TN, and the storms make it down to the Winston Salem area and then fizzle out before reaching the Triangle area. Last one I remember (2012 I believe) when we had the pattern, none made it past Alamance/Randolph area. That was a rough ride with temps in the upper 90's/low 100's and no afternoon storms.
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It’s certainly possible that happens since 500mb flow weakens further south, at least there will be plenty of CAPE to at least carry out some outflow driven storms, and it looks like we’ll have the afternoon Lee trough with this one, somewhat similar to last year late June MCSs
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
30%-45% on the CIPS for Thursday, remember this is just a analog but that’s a good signal View attachment 42381
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Glad to see more and more signals that point to an MCS like system next week. I don't want to see damage, but if we can have a summer without the 90's every day and we can keep any drought threats at bay, I am so down!
 
This may change if that slug of moisture trends north and piece of a energy gives more moist crappy SW flow, but Thursday still looks like a decent day, based off 12z thurs, EML advection/7C+ mid level LRs ? CheckEE1F4076-DED9-4554-AF0F-991FFE3A9840.png
Decent 500mb flow (20+kts) ? Check4370CFA0-7344-476B-A9EC-B34E6F6A3B82.png
Energy ? Sorta check, there was some approaching from the SW and then some approaching from the NW, I like the NW flow energy more, but it’s worth noting that isn’t the best look given the flatter look4492344C-F76F-49C9-8C91-BE2190ADFE04.png
Already at 8am there was a nice influx of CAPE 20559365-813E-4CC7-B1C4-F5ECF04505A6.png
Note I did this out of boredom, and also because i agree with it a tad bit with this look (doesn’t seem to off tbh) this will likely change but I’m just making a observation for fun off this
 
Still sat looks to have the best potential for a MCS, solid belt of 500mb flow makes it here with the backdoor front Which aids in more organized convection, nice dewpoint gradient which is typical with MCS setups and solid instability 6CD5FE1B-FAE4-4484-BD03-69C46DCDEC4B.pngCEA9028B-D4F2-4A19-882B-0BFC51CB7252.pngE602C9F5-42C7-4A7E-9C47-5E8B66599F63.png
 
Thurs/fri still look decent for more Lee trough/pulse type stuff, altho stuff on fri may be a tad more organized, this is just the euro however and the GFS isn’t so excited, but the euro has been quite consistent 4A9F4670-B904-41B1-B59E-039326A76270.png6D96328D-2822-4F9B-8BCF-3F33F72D1162.png
 
ryan1234 said:
I love Brad, but sometimes he posts stuff like that an I just sorta scratch my head.
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Maybe it's strategic? The stuff that local weather teams put together ends up going to a more general audience. Either way I don't put much stock in what they forecast more than a day or two out.
 
I don't think we will but I hope we can avoid 90 Wednesday through Friday. If we can we may have a shot at getting close to the latest 90 on record
 
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