Phil
Member
Bring em on! Would love to see averages at about 122 in the shade...Experienced those temps in a small country in Central America it was nice..Only rained twice in 70+ days another plus.
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Pattern June Presented by: Heat and Humidity
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Bring em on! Would love to see averages at about 122 in the shade...Experienced those temps in a small country in Central America it was nice..Only rained twice in 70+ days another plus.
JHS
Member
We need nothing like that around here. Maybe you need to move if you really like temps like that.
Where in tropical Central America does it get to 122 and not rain but twice in 2 months? Trolling hard huh?
cd2play
Member
Summer 2007, and parts of summer 2012 we got very little rain... didn't quite make it to 122, but 108 is hot enough.. Both summers saw my area in an exceptional drought.
Phil
Member
You ever been there? I am guessing not...Most likely never been outside the US. have you.....?During my time in the military and because of that I cannot give specifics....And what reason would I so call troll that? I don't care if you believe me or not.
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Phil
Member
Ring of fire pattern coming up late next week
Scattered showers and storms could keep us out of the 90s.
Here’s what I’m thinking, we’re about to enter a NW flow regime, with a cutoff around Baja, nice “death ridge” in the central US and the upper SE/mid ATL in NW flow, first off it looks like with the NW flow setting up, there’s going to be some weak EML advection which will at least increase mid level LRs in the ball park of 6-7C, And often increases the chances of severe wx
also got nice advection of CAPE embedded in the NW flow, (GFS/EURO generally agree on 1500-3000 next Thursday) which is the first day That has my attention
as you can see there are quite a few pieces of energy being depicted on the GFS, and this is why this type of pattern is hard to forecast, even when the event is happening short range models often struggle with how fast/how long a MCSs/MCV last, but this map right here gives a idea that there’s going to be energy embedded in the NW flow, and those areas of energy will likely be the areas the storm clusters are focused at, especially during peak heating, of course there’s other mesoscale features like lee troughing, etc that can fire up storms with this type of pattern, but MCVs/pieces of energy is where it’s at
This is for next Thursday, and here’s where I think some sort of chance of a MCS/storm cluster Exists, little area in the red is where the best intercept of the best 500mb winds and SBcape appear to be along with better LRs, next Thursday looks like day 1, as there could be more before the pattern perhaps shifts/breaks down, but yeah I just did this out of boredom basically-
also got nice advection of CAPE embedded in the NW flow, (GFS/EURO generally agree on 1500-3000 next Thursday) which is the first day That has my attention
as you can see there are quite a few pieces of energy being depicted on the GFS, and this is why this type of pattern is hard to forecast, even when the event is happening short range models often struggle with how fast/how long a MCSs/MCV last, but this map right here gives a idea that there’s going to be energy embedded in the NW flow, and those areas of energy will likely be the areas the storm clusters are focused at, especially during peak heating, of course there’s other mesoscale features like lee troughing, etc that can fire up storms with this type of pattern, but MCVs/pieces of energy is where it’s at
This is for next Thursday, and here’s where I think some sort of chance of a MCS/storm cluster Exists, little area in the red is where the best intercept of the best 500mb winds and SBcape appear to be along with better LRs, next Thursday looks like day 1, as there could be more before the pattern perhaps shifts/breaks down, but yeah I just did this out of boredom basically-
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Yes sir I have. Been to Belize and Honduras. Been to every state in the US except Hawaii too. What you describe is desert conditions which to my knowledge doesn't exist in central America. Maybe you mean Mexico which technically isn't central America. Either way thank you for your service.
JHS
Member
Late next week could end up being a lot like early June of 1985 when a major ring of fire set up hitting central and eastern NC hard. I could see lightning from at least 50 miles away one night at the rate of 20-30 flashes a minute.
NRVWX
Member
Are we looking at potential derechos with this pattern. I'm in the area you circled in red.
It’s unlikely, but with the ridge riders you can never totally rule one out
Latest trends have been meh on the GFS, shows some slug of moisture late next week off the coast which ruins cape around here, ECMWF doesn’t show that, but it’s something to watch, but anyways I think most of our stuff in western NC towards CLT will be driven diurnally by Lee troughing and OFBs (which that can evolve into a big cluster) however next Saturday looks like the best shot of a MCS with a backdoor front, next week eastern NC sits in a better spot
LickWx
Member
As it should be! Finally a return to some normalcy. Imma take all the storms see how yall like it ?!
Yeah, I saw that as well. I am somewhat skeptical though. Modeling handled last week's heavy rain event, horribly. I agree, most of our storms are a result of the Lee trough. Also, where this backdoor sets up will be telling as well. If it moves far enough south it could also take eastern NC out of "ring of fire." I have seen that kind of setup multiple times.
Euro is sure fun looking on Thursday, decent sfc/Lee trough and a remnant MCS That’s strengthening back in eastern NC, euro seems to have locked on to this look, now let’s see what it shows for Saturday as the backdoor front pushes in 
Still looks solid for Saturday when I think that’s the best chance of a MCS as the backdoor front is lurking and a CAPE/dewpoint gradient sets up near NC with a piece of energy moving through (MCSs like setting up near those gradients), also add some decent 500mb winds to that, wonder how much this will change 
Avalanche
Member
I at least hope some of this takes place. More often than not, for me, I watch those clusters form in the corners regions of WV,VA, N TN, and the storms make it down to the Winston Salem area and then fizzle out before reaching the Triangle area. Last one I remember (2012 I believe) when we had the pattern, none made it past Alamance/Randolph area. That was a rough ride with temps in the upper 90's/low 100's and no afternoon storms.
SWB
Member
I would be happy with lows in 60's highs around 90 all summer. Summer time thunderstorms couple days out of week.
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It’s certainly possible that happens since 500mb flow weakens further south, at least there will be plenty of CAPE to at least carry out some outflow driven storms, and it looks like we’ll have the afternoon Lee trough with this one, somewhat similar to last year late June MCSs
30%-45% on the CIPS for Thursday, remember this is just a analog but that’s a good signal 
Glad to see more and more signals that point to an MCS like system next week. I don't want to see damage, but if we can have a summer without the 90's every day and we can keep any drought threats at bay, I am so down!
Downeastnc
Member
yuck....
Pool time ?
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Hard to believe its still spring when you see temps like that. The North East looks nice and pleasant though.
This may change if that slug of moisture trends north and piece of a energy gives more moist crappy SW flow, but Thursday still looks like a decent day, based off 12z thurs, EML advection/7C+ mid level LRs ? Check
Decent 500mb flow (20+kts) ? Check
Energy ? Sorta check, there was some approaching from the SW and then some approaching from the NW, I like the NW flow energy more, but it’s worth noting that isn’t the best look given the flatter look
Already at 8am there was a nice influx of CAPE
Note I did this out of boredom, and also because i agree with it a tad bit with this look (doesn’t seem to off tbh) this will likely change but I’m just making a observation for fun off this
Decent 500mb flow (20+kts) ? Check
Energy ? Sorta check, there was some approaching from the SW and then some approaching from the NW, I like the NW flow energy more, but it’s worth noting that isn’t the best look given the flatter look
Already at 8am there was a nice influx of CAPE
Note I did this out of boredom, and also because i agree with it a tad bit with this look (doesn’t seem to off tbh) this will likely change but I’m just making a observation for fun off this
June 1 and the windows open...Im not mad
June 1 and it’s 72 degrees with 48% humidity at the lunch... can’t ask for a much nicer first day of meteorological summer
Not a cloud in the sky as best I can tell up here in Durham, too. Beautiful!
Still sat looks to have the best potential for a MCS, solid belt of 500mb flow makes it here with the backdoor front Which aids in more organized convection, nice dewpoint gradient which is typical with MCS setups and solid instability 
Thurs/fri still look decent for more Lee trough/pulse type stuff, altho stuff on fri may be a tad more organized, this is just the euro however and the GFS isn’t so excited, but the euro has been quite consistent 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Just a chamber of commerce afternoon out there. Virtually zero humidity and 71 degrees. Oh and a 46 degree low isn’t too shabby for June 1st.
Lol and last night gave a 80% chance of shower/storms on fri, map he shows doesn’t even look there’s any Convective precip
I love Brad, but sometimes he posts stuff like that and I just sorta scratch my head.
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mbway091
Member
Maybe it's strategic? The stuff that local weather teams put together ends up going to a more general audience. Either way I don't put much stock in what they forecast more than a day or two out.
I don't think we will but I hope we can avoid 90 Wednesday through Friday. If we can we may have a shot at getting close to the latest 90 on record