Here’s what I’m thinking, we’re about to enter a NW flow regime, with a cutoff around Baja, nice “death ridge” in the central US and the upper SE/mid ATL in NW flow, first off it looks like with the NW flow setting up, there’s going to be some weak EML advection which will at least increase mid level LRs in the ball park of 6-7C, And often increases the chances of severe wx
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also got nice advection of CAPE embedded in the NW flow, (GFS/EURO generally agree on 1500-3000 next Thursday) which is the first day That has my attention
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as you can see there are quite a few pieces of energy being depicted on the GFS, and this is why this type of pattern is hard to forecast, even when the event is happening short range models often struggle with how fast/how long a MCSs/MCV last, but this map right here gives a idea that there’s going to be energy embedded in the NW flow, and those areas of energy will likely be the areas the storm clusters are focused at, especially during peak heating, of course there’s other mesoscale features like lee troughing, etc that can fire up storms with this type of pattern, but MCVs/pieces of energy is where it’s at
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This is for next Thursday, and here’s where I think some sort of chance of a MCS/storm cluster Exists, little area in the red is where the best intercept of the best 500mb winds and SBcape appear to be along with better LRs, next Thursday looks like day 1, as there could be more before the pattern perhaps shifts/breaks down, but yeah I just did this out of boredom basically-
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