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Pattern June 2024

SD said:
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In the corridor from NE FL to E SC, those 100-102F HRRR 4PM progs look to be close per current trends with upper 90s likely for most highs and a few low 100s likely sneaking in. At noon, it was already 90-93 in most of that area.

Jacksonville, FL, already had a 100 high yesterday and they’ll likely be close again today as the seabreeze is pinned close to the coast much of the PM thanks to W winds, typically the direction associated with hottest summer highs. Also, there are virtually no clouds forecasted.

In my area, W winds (limited seabreeze)/sunny skies will also prevail. The sky is clear blue with no haze. At noon it was already 90-92, which is 1-2 warmer than 24 hours ago. In addition, yesterday’s wind direction was more variable. Yesterday’s KSAV high was 94, which tied with Fri for the hottest day so far this year. Today’s high there should easily exceed 94. The avg hottest there in June is 98.

I’m already up to 93.9 at 12:35PM.
 
GaWx said:
DFurther to the above, I was at 96.2 at 3:10PM. Some 3PM temps: KSAV 95, KCHS 95, KSSI 97, KJAX 97, KGNV 95, KTLH 97, KVLD 96, KAYS 95
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Dang, and I thought some of the models were showing cooler than normal weather this weekend.
 
Snowlover87 said:
Dang, and I thought some of the models were showing cooler than normal weather this weekend.
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1) Good point. Some of the early last week GFS runs that I posted about had BN in much of the SE with highs in RDU only in the upper 70s to near 80. But the other models weren’t as cool and the ICON wasn’t cool at all as it had 80s for highs. RDU had a high of 88 yesterday and has hit 91+ today! So, major bust to the cool side for those early week GFS runs.

2) Update for current heat: my highest so far has been 97.5 a couple of times over the last hour (last time at 4:20PM).

4PM temps: SAV 96, CHS 96, SSI 99, AYS 97, VLD 97, JAX 98, GNV 96, TLH 97
So, the posted HRRR run from 0Z yesterday is fortunately verifying too hot by a few degrees.

Good news is that due to DPs in the high 50s to low 60s, HIs are staying in the upper 90s. So, the HIs could be a lot worse.
 
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Brent said:
I can deal with the heat but these bugs and flying whatever they are have to go
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Bugs are insane up here too! See if you can find a product called ‘ Bug Soother’ . Bugs flock to me, around my head, getting in my ear holes and eyes and everywhere! I rub a little of this on, not one big!
Currently 79 degrees!
 
Idk when they are technically supposed to arrive but I have a ton of baby Joro spiders all around my house. They are babies I guess and are the size of a pencil point but they are everywhere. I can only imagine how bad it’s gonna get when the big ones show up.
 
Models completely over predicted the mcs for MBY last night. Both the 3k and hrrr had a nice line of strong storms and around .50-.75 in totals. We got .02 overnight and another .10 just now. Was.looking forward to banking a bit of rain before the dry spell hit but oh well
 
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see less than .5 of rain the rest of June unless we find a way to pull that tropical thing this way. The pattern is just so meh

On top of this I think we could get a decent number of 100 degree readings coming too
 
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SD said:
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see less than .5 of rain the rest of June unless we find a way to pull that tropical thing this way. The pattern is just so meh

On top of this I think we could get a decent number of 100 degree readings coming too
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Yeah, the 12z CFS and the 18z GFS agree with your dry thought. It does show some lower dew points many days, but the surface temps are really hot. Basically, desert conditions incoming...
 
Seriously, when was the last noteworthy weather event weve had. Forgive my memory but the 2020's aint gonna be taking up space in the SE weather folklore books. I see lightening about as frequent as I use to see snow. I say use to, cause havent seen that in a couple consecutive years now.
 
FallsLake said:
Yeah, the 12z CFS and the 18z GFS agree with your dry thought. It does show some lower dew points many days, but the surface temps are really hot. Basically, desert conditions incoming...
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This action is about the worst we can get around here in the warm months. Recycled continental air under a developing 850->500mb ridge microwave gfs_z500a_us_fh78-192.gif
 
BHS1975 said:
If we can nudge that high and trough east a bit we'd be in bidness.


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It's about half a wavelength off from pulling entire tropics indy the region and going full sauna but lots of rain
 
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