Pattern July

[NorthDFWwx]

Fell asleep and then woke up to a deluge outside with some rumbles of thunder.

We saw 3 observations of 89*F, so will have to wait until later to see if there was an intra-hour 90*F.

And 90*F it is for the high today.

 

[BufordWX]

Got some decent rain here today! Had a few hours of light to moderate rain with a few minutes of heavier rain at the start. Ended up getting .58” today which I will gladly take.

 

[SD]

I feel like this has been the same D10+ model image since 5/1 and every time we have ended up with a trough in the NW and big heights over the SE. It would certainly be nice to get into a long period of western ridge east trough to end the month

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[Arcc]

I feel like this has been the same D10+ model image since 5/1 and every time we have ended up with a trough in the NW and big heights over the SE. It would certainly be nice to get into a long period of western ridge east trough to end the month

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Yeah, the new GFS is horrific in constantly showing a western ridge and eastern trough. Not gonna be a good winter for weenies if it holds that bias that Larry has preached about.

 

[Rain Cold]

I feel like this has been the same D10+ model image since 5/1 and every time we have ended up with a trough in the NW and big heights over the SE. It would certainly be nice to get into a long period of western ridge east trough to end the month

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Welcome to winter in the SE!

 

[SD]

Hope the 12z icon and 0z Canadian are on to something with the remnants of Barry. Keeping that small area of vorticity around would certainly keep rain chances up

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[SD]

12z Euro is crazy hot Saturday and Sunday. Really getting on board with 100+ both days next weekend. Interestingly enough the heat may be centered more toward the mid Atlantic where areas could push 105

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[Tarheel1]

Come to papa

 

[GaWx]

12z Euro is crazy hot Saturday and Sunday. Really getting on board with 100+ both days next weekend. Interestingly enough the heat may be centered more toward the mid Atlantic where areas could push 105

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The good news is that the Euro was 8-10 degrees too hot on several runs with the late May heatwave. I mean it had way beyond stupid heat values of absurdly hot at 18Z/2 PM of 108-111 in parts of S GA and N FL.! The culprit apparently was too low dewpoints making it heat up faster than reality. OTOH, the old GFS had higher dewpoints and consequently lower 18Z temps. Is that happening this time? I don't know.

 

[dsaur]

The good news is that the Euro was 8-10 degrees too hot on several runs with the late May heatwave. I mean it had way beyond stupid heat values of absurdly hot at 18Z/2 PM of 108-111 in parts of S GA and N FL.! The culprit apparently was too low dewpoints making it heat up faster than reality. OTOH, the old GFS had higher dewpoints and consequently lower 18Z temps. Is that happening this time? I don't know.

Just had a couple of gravity waves go thru and a cool wind whipped up while I was picking blue berries, and that was the best feeling 82 I've experienced in a while It's the odd things on a hot summer's day that makes it bearable sometimes.

 

[SD]

The good news is that the Euro was 8-10 degrees too hot on several runs with the late May heatwave. I mean it had way beyond stupid heat values of absurdly hot at 18Z/2 PM of 108-111 in parts of S GA and N FL.! The culprit apparently was too low dewpoints making it heat up faster than reality. OTOH, the old GFS had higher dewpoints and consequently lower 18Z temps. Is that happening this time? I don't know.

Yeah I'm wondering if the Euro may be too hot again at 2m. The one thing that makes me think we might inch closer to 100 is the 850mb temps around 25c which seems to be a benchmark around here too push or exceed 100.

To your point about the dews being too low it certainly seems that its having some type of error/bias in the mid to long range. It always seems to be running in the top 25% of the ensemble spread on 2m temp and the bottom 25% on qpf, those would obviously be tied to dews being too low in the warm season.

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[NCSNOW]

The Dog Days Of Summer are in full swing. Man I despise the wx this time of year. With the Beach trip and Garden in the rear view mirror, beyond ready for summer to be over. Like the ole country song its to hot to fish,to hot for golf and really to hot to even hit the pool. Inserted last stanza. Enough ranting, Forecast never changes from day to day. Highs in the 90s lows in the 70s. Chance of rain swings back n forth from 0 to 30%. Tv mets and nws in the south should just go on vacation mid july to late august. Ill take a 33 degree rain day over this crap any day of the week

 

[pcbjr]

Ill take a 33 degree rain day over this crap any day of the week

Just one in 365 would be a miracle of sorts ...

 

[SD]

Going to be a 7+ day stretch of 95+ coming up. Think saturday or Sunday goes 100-102 at rdu

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[Metwannabe]

Going to be a 7+ day stretch of 95+ coming up. Think saturday or Sunday goes 100-102 at rdu

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Last couple of days have been miserable and only going downhill from here.... rough stretch coming up. Man I hope this is it for the summer, the extreme stuff anyways

 

[GaWx]

Maxar is forecasting two of the six hottest days since 1950 on a US energy usage weighted cooling degree day basis for 7/19-20:

7/20/19’s 16.43 CDDs would rank 2nd hottest to only 7/22/11’s 16.87

7/19/19’s 15.9 would actually be the hottest day since 7/22/11 though 7/20/19 would then eclipse 7/19/19

 

[weatherfide]

Going to be a 7+ day stretch of 95+ coming up. Think saturday or Sunday goes 100-102 at rdu

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Looks like GFS has Raleigh under the 594 DM Friday and Saturday. With the really bad heat just to your north, maybe because the wind is down off the mountains, compressing the surface air even more. VA is gonna get scorched!

Hopefully, just a few more months of hell to go...

 

[SoutheastRidge]

You can't even escape the heat in the midwest or northeast this time of year. I guess the best bet is to head to the rockies.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

or grandfather mtn NC

 

[J.C.]

Can someone with more knowledge elaborate on the GFS's out of wack temperature forecasts for Atlanta all the time? I guess I'll just stick with the GEFS for temps.