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July Surprise!

yeah tomorrow looks solid, especially between I-85 and I-40 along a 2500-4000 jkg cape axis, high DCAPE, dry air aloft, high PWAT, And large 3CAPE with no capping could allow a few isolated severe storms with microbursts along with strong outflow winds and storms that develop quickly along those outflows
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Just so everyone knows and doesn't think I'm just complaining my last significant rain was 6/19, 1.8 not too shabby. Since that date I've had .5 total with a biggest 1 day event of .28, at the mid point of July I'm at .4 for the month. Taking the ULL rain from early to mid June into account I am around 5-5.5 inches since 6/1 which is now below normal. If I were to only receive another .4 for the 2nd half of July this would be the driest JJA month I've ever recorded since I've had my station. Obviously things can change easily this time of year in 1 afternoon but looking at the models I don't exactly get the warm fuzzies about scoring through at least D5.
 
yeah tomorrow looks solid, especially between I-85 and I-40 along a 2500-4000 jkg cape axis, high DCAPE, dry air aloft, high PWAT, And large 3CAPE with no capping could allow a few isolated severe storms with microbursts along with strong outflow winds and storms that develop quickly along those outflows
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I've seen this movie. Those storms form tomorrow shoot out an OFB that drifts through and fires up convection from FAY to GSB Saturday afternoon.
 
Another swing and miss for Charlotte.

Wouldn’t shock me if convection makes it there thru outflows but areas north of CLT like huntersville/LKN/kannapolis/concord/Salisbury stand a better chance
 
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