July Surprise!

[Webberweather53]

I'm not gonna lie this looks mildly interesting. A pretty formidable mesoscale convective vortex moving over the northern Gulf in the middle of the hurricane season with 36 hours over water & somewhat favorable shear? There's literally nothing else to talk about in the tropics and since it's also so close to land I guess it may be worth looking at.



27 hr GFS 700mb vorticity forecast.

 

[Webberweather53]

This thing has a surprisingly deep warm core on the GFS. What you’re seeing the yellow and orange shading is low-mid level potential vorticity tower that’s being generated by latent heating from persistent, deep convection and it is one of the easiest to identify, distinguishing characteristics of warm core low pressure systems over wintertime mid latitude cyclones. More intense tropical cyclones usually will have deeper, stronger, & more laterally extensive PV towers. Cross sections like this can this tell you a lot and it’s also a pretty neat way to diagnose deep layer wind shear (the PV tower will tilt due to shear).

This is definitely a plot we will have to revisit at some point later in the hurricane season

 

[SD]

My yard is sounding a bit crunchy this evening.

Sprinklers full bore here. Entire check going to harnett water

 

[BHS1975]

I've seen this movie. Those storms form tomorrow shoot out an OFB that drifts through and fires up convection from FAY to GSB Saturday afternoon.

That’s what the HRRR is showing


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[SD]

That’s what the HRRR is showing


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Too predictable

 

[Myfrotho704_]

65-70 miles doesn’t stop me

 

[SD]

Too predictable

Actually I could see tomorrow getting sneaky good as the outflow moves SE and collides with the inland pushing sea breeze tomorrow evening. I must be broken

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I really like the hrrr tomorrow

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gonna be some big instability the next few days

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Gonna be some big instability the next few days

I didn’t see a drop of rain today. 5-6 miles north of me got a soaker

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I didn’t see a drop of rain today. 5-6 miles north of me got a soaker

Don’t worry by winter we’ll get all the rain we don’t want

 

[EV/WS]

Finally, after no rain in quite some time I found .60 in my rain gauge when I got home from a looooong day at work...

 

[RDUHeatIsland]

65-70 miles doesn’t stop me View attachment 44347View attachment 44348View attachment 44349View attachment 44350

While I was observing comet Neowise earlier I could faintly see flashes of lightning come from that same storm all the way down at Jordan Lake! I'm fairly certain that we were both looking at the same storm since I was facing NW and there's nothing else on the radar. That's a good ~200 miles we're talking about!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

While I was observing comet Neowise earlier I could faintly see flashes of lightning come from that same storm all the way down at Jordan Lake! I'm fairly certain that we were both looking at the same storm since I was facing NW and there's nothing else on the radar. That's a good ~200 miles we're talking about!

Wow that’s impressive, that storm was nearly 60kft at one point tho so it was definitely tall

 

[RDUHeatIsland]

Wow that’s impressive, that storm was nearly 60kft at one point tho so it was definitely tall

Slight correction, I misread kilometers as miles, so that's actually 125 miles away which is still impressive nonetheless. The amazing clear skies tonight must've also helped with the visibility.

 

[ryan1234]

I really like the hrrr tomorrow View attachment 44351View attachment 44352View attachment 44353

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[smast16]

Finally, after no rain in quite some time I found .60 in my rain gauge when I got home from a looooong day at work...

And I on the other side of the county got skunked! Enjoy it.

 

[SD]

HRRR for the win

 

[BHS1975]

HRRR for the win

Looks beefy


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[SD]

Looks beefy


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I can't unsee the 11 and 12z runs. I might tune out for the day