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July Surprise!

BufordWX said:
To be fair I never really thought that MCS was going to do much in Georgia anyways. It always looked like it would be more in Alabama. Besides that I don’t think we are 100% done yet. FFC mentioned there could be more development over the area as the main shortwave axis traverses through this evening and the SPC still has the marginal risk too. Of course whatever happens I have no right to complain given the week I have had.
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I was just basing my knowledge and what I have seen happen here as well. Of course, you could see more development, but I'd like to see some more sun over there. Your area might be better off than W GA though. Don't worry, I am rooting for you all too!
 
One thing I do find interesting this summer is the lack of any organized severe weather. We are usually due for a couple of severe events around here during the summer. When is the last time we went a whole summer without any type of watch being issued at all? Heck, when is the last time we had more then a marginal risk of severe weather?
 
Almost all of the models that do have convection making it in overnight into WNC/piedmont fire storms way into ENC they next day so yeah I’ll definitely pass when it comes to today/tonight but tomorrow looks fun if things line up right, I’ve also noticed a lot of soundings with heavyweight cape around the -10 to -30 region with good storm relative winds in that region
 
BufordWX said:
One thing I do find interesting this summer is the lack of any organized severe weather. We are usually due for a couple of severe events around here during the summer. When is the last time we went a whole summer without any type of watch being issued at all? Heck, when is the last time we had more then a marginal risk of severe weather?
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Yeah, it's been a very bizarre summer for sure. I am still going with the notion that 2020 is cursed.
 
BufordWX said:
One thing I do find interesting this summer is the lack of any organized severe weather. We are usually due for a couple of severe events around here during the summer. When is the last time we went a whole summer without any type of watch being issued at all? Heck, when is the last time we had more then a marginal risk of severe weather?
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Honestly those storms that happened on Friday In NC should have warranted a marginal or even a slight per wind damage reports with some hail mixed In There, that microburst I had was intense and was far more intense than last years mcs in late June
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Almost all of the models that do have convection making it in overnight into WNC/piedmont fire storms way into ENC they next day so yeah I’ll definitely pass when it comes to today/tonight but tomorrow looks fun if things line up right, I’ve also noticed a lot of soundings with heavyweight cape around the -10 to -30 region with good storm relative winds in that region
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Wait, so are saying that it's a swing and a miss for our region?
 
ryan1234 said:
Wait, so are saying that it's a swing and a miss for our region?
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Nah I’m just sayin the few models that push overnight convection in have Convective way in ENC tomorrow due to OFBs pushed further East so we want nothing to push East tonight so tomorrow can be good and not all the way in ENC
 
Lickwx said:
What’s bringing the goods ? Thunderstorms ?
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Yep. Ridge retrogrades way west and we get troughed, lots of stalled fronts and maybe a weak ull. Not a bad look at all and it's supported by the geps but the eps says no I think
 
Thankfully it’s raining
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BufordWX said:
One thing I do find interesting this summer is the lack of any organized severe weather. We are usually due for a couple of severe events around here during the summer. When is the last time we went a whole summer without any type of watch being issued at all? Heck, when is the last time we had more then a marginal risk of severe weather?
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Did some digging to see how many watches have been issued over the past 10 years during the summer months (JJA) for my county (Gwinnett) All of them are severe thunderstorm watches.

2010: 4
2011: 5
2012: 0
2013: 1
2014: 2
2015: 2
2016: 1
2017: 1
2018: 4
2019: 5
2020: 0 (so far)

Out of the last 10 years the only year without any watch being issued here during the summer months is 2012 which was the year dominated by that crazy heat.
 
GFS not too enthusiastic about tomorrow. If we don't score anything tonight/tomorrow it's going to be a dry week (Maybe Wednesday) But for the most part, not till the end of the week.
 
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