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July Surprise!

SD said:
Let's not talk about it.
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Just looked at the storm total doppler estimate on the NWS RAH site. I don't know how accurate that is but it's showing some one inch lollipops up to western and central Wake Co. And then virtually zero to the east. I'm telling you, it's virtually impossible to get an MCS to roll through here. They always roll through late at night.
 
Rain Cold said:
Just looked at the storm total doppler estimate on the NWS RAH site. I don't know how accurate that is but it's showing some one inch lollipops up to western and central Wake Co. And then virtually zero to the east. I'm telling you, it's virtually impossible to get an MCS to roll through here. They always roll through late at night.
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Sounds about right outflow rolled out just west of US1 and it was game over for us. I'm not sure how it will ever rain here again, hard to find an ull with this lookecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11 (3).png
 
SD said:
Sounds about right outflow rolled out just west of US1 and it was game over for us. I'm not sure how it will ever rain here again, hard to find an ull with this lookView attachment 44042
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This might be a dumb question, but why did it not produce an outflow farther upstream that choked it off earlier? It wasn't like it had just formed to our west. It had been ongoing for a while.
 
Rain Cold said:
This might be a dumb question, but why did it not produce an outflow farther upstream that choked it off earlier? It wasn't like it had just formed to our west. It had been ongoing for a while.
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Yeah I’m wondering the same thing.


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Let’s not ignore the fact that the SPC had a pretty bad bust with that general risk yesterday, could of verified as a marginal or even a slight... DB474C77-7FCC-4EF1-8011-7DA80E99D52E.jpeg626C9AE5-BAEE-4428-BE02-F8F5CD600D0D.png
 
FFC is quite bullish on an MCS tomorrow night/Monday morning. SPC seems to agree in their 2 day outlook.
 
Unfortunately, it’s that time of the year here in the Midlands of SC where the temperature rarely drops below 70° for lows. An interesting stat I always like watching is how many days in a row here we can go without dipping below 70°. Right now, we are at 13 days in a row with June 28th being the last day we dropped below it. I normally round up. So if it 69.7° for example wouldn’t count. It’s been since May 20th since we’ve dropped below 60° here.
I know a lot people like Summer, but I can’t wait for that first true Fall cold front. Got a while! Lol
 
Rain Cold said:
This might be a dumb question, but why did it not produce an outflow farther upstream that choked it off earlier? It wasn't like it had just formed to our west. It had been ongoing for a while.
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I guess the cold pool and stratiform rain matured enough to finally force the ofb far enough ahead
 
SD said:
Not surprising
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Maybe just a off run, seems like it tried turning it into a Wounded MCV upstream and speeds it up which the nam has done lately with almost every trof axis, for your sake I hope it’s a off run man
 
Drunk isn’t the word lol, this run gets discreet supercells (black lines on storms is helicity) going with a high cape/modest shear setup, id definitely chase this if I had to, unfortunately it’s the LR 3km nam 51725961-70F5-4BBF-BB2F-4FE127F8FFF2.png48FD9CAD-14A8-4BCD-B359-F3D3B19D7DFA.pngDD1943C6-0B90-4591-9974-D16A83C74620.png4A310232-EE4D-42A1-A4AB-7F9541669656.jpeg
 
Gotta say, not a fan of this upcoming pattern. Despite what the fact that we aren't supposed to enter a drought anytime soon, rain chances continue to fall. We need a nice tropical system like the NE had. Just a nice soaking rain!
 
ryan1234 said:
Gotta say, not a fan of this upcoming pattern. Despite what the fact that we aren't supposed to enter a drought anytime soon, rain chances continue to fall. We need a nice tropical system like the NE had. Just a nice soaking rain!
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Drycon looks terrible gfs is decent. Let's see who winsgfs_apcpn_seus_27.pngicon_apcpn_seus_60 (1).png
 
Pretty amazing how little effect last night's rain had on my yard. Places that were already starting to show dry stress are still there. As a whole this sucks
 
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