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July Fry 2021

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What you’re showing on the big map is the very likely answer to your question about the models being too hot in the eastern US. There has been a warm bias in much of the area with mainly ample to wet soil moisture, which has been the case in the bulk of the SE. The ridging has been persistent out west and in the NW as well as N Plains, which has been helped by drought in those areas. Therefore, the fact that ridging into the SE US on the models hasn’t held up makes sense rather than it being due to luck/randomness.

Looking for near 92 today in KATL.
 
It’s going to be hard to reverse a pattern with a drought set up like that in the west .. and just about none in the East .. the ridges hold as much as the troughs will as well .. ugly stuff for out west
I’m fortunate enough to have a retired meteorologist as a next door neighbor. He was in the Navy and then worked for the NWS for a number of years. We were talking earlier this week the drought and fires in the west and he said from looking at the long range models and just how entrenched that ridge is out west, he thinks it’s going to take the ENSO to cycle through all the way into a strong El Niño in order to switch things around… he doesn’t see the signs of that happening for at least a year.
 
Today's update for hottest of next 15 days
Atl: 94 on 7/31
Rdu: 94 on 7/28 and 8/1
Mem: 96 on 8/1 and 8/5
Dfw: 101 on 7/26-7 and 8/2-4

So, they have Dfw the same as yesterday, but they cooled Atl, Rdu, and Mem by one degree.

Today's update with hottest forecasted over next 15 days:

Atl: back up 1 to 95 (7/29)
Rdu: still at 94 (7/29)
Mem: still at 96 (8/2-3)
Dfw: up 1 to 102, their hottest forecast yet (8/2-3)
 
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