• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern July Fries

metwannabe said:
Yeah anything in the blue is about 1.5 and up... Nice start for you too.
9799bc5403396de9185fe6416389cc14.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Thanks. Tomorrow, looks like shear will be a touch better, so we could have at least some organization
Tarheel1 said:
Forecast is dry through Tuesday! This big wet is amazing!:mad:
Click to expand...
What are you doing up at 4 AM?!
 
SD said:
Nah. I think either October or November is below normal. Maybe both

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Long as D-M are below, I’m good.
 
Rain Cold said:
Long as D-M are below, I’m good.
Click to expand...
Nobody better want a cold October, those usually don’t end well for good and snowy SE winters, if I recall!
 
SD said:
Nah. I think either October or November is below normal. Maybe both
Click to expand...

Another 1880, 1885, or 1976 ftw? Those were each weak El Nino with cooler than average Oct and Nov. Actually, I haven't found a correlation of weak Nino to cool Octs but I have found a halfway decent correllation of that to cool Novs. And will we end up with a weak Nino? I think good chance for weak to low end moderate for the upcoming winter as of now.
 
BB80BB9E-B75B-4768-8A5E-08840BB17EFF.png Well hello dare......
 
Tarheel1 said:
Nobody better want a cold October, those usually don’t end well for good and snowy SE winters, if I recall!
Click to expand...
Or that big Nor’easter in October. Keep those away. FallsLake will keep us posted on that.
 
GaWx said:
Another 1880, 1885, or 1976 ftw? Those were each weak El Nino with cooler than average Oct and Nov. Actually, I haven't found a correlation of weak Nino to cool Octs but I have found a halfway decent correllation of that to cool Novs. And will we end up with a weak Nino? I think good chance for weak to low end moderate for the upcoming winter as of now.
Click to expand...
You know from just taking a quick glance so far at winter im not seeing a ton of negative. I think a weak Nino is a good bet but its still relatively early

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Looking for a model that raises some modicum of winter hope (and this is not intended, at all, as discussion or crystal ball gazing or any semblance of personal thoughts (and it certainly is not July weather but is posted here in response to other recently related posts)) ... so... here is one that most should like (though not supported by many other models) ... in other words, just for kicks on a miserably humid and hot July Sunday afternoon ...

temp2.glob.DJF2019.1jul2018.gif
 
Last edited:
SD said:
You know from just taking a quick glance so far at winter im not seeing a ton of negative. I think a weak Nino is a good bet but its still relatively early

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Christmas in July

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
So there's this
7642fccba585f9519b02b11496f2df07.gif


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I gotta think it favors the east side of the highlighted area, higher concentrations, and then those outflow boundaries will set off more scattered on the west side. Still going to be some prolific rain makers.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
pcbjr said:
Looking for a model that raises some modicum of winter hope (and this is not intended, at all, as discussion or crystal ball gazing or any semblance of personal thoughts (and it certainly is not July weather but is posted here in response to other recently related posts)) ... so... here is one that most should like (though not supported by many other models) ... in other words, just for kicks on a miserably humid and hot July Sunday afternoon ...

View attachment 5517
Click to expand...

I'll have a lot more to say about this July JAMSTEC forecst for DJF as soon as I get time to put together a post in the winter outlook thread.
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
I was model shopping for kicks ... :eek:
Phil

... and to keep an otherwise boring time of year going ... :cool:
Click to expand...

I just finished looking at and analyzing all of the previous years’ July Jamstec DJF SE US temperature forecasts (11 of them) as well as the respective Niño 3.4 forecasts for DJF, which are all at the website. I think this analysis is worth a post. But I need time to put it together. Hopefully by tomorrow.

Thanks for posting it as I otherwise wasn’t even thinking about it.
 
GaWx said:
I just finished looking at and analyzing all of the previous years’ July Jamstec DJF SE US temperature forecasts (11 of them) as well as the respective Niño 3.4 forecasts for DJF, which are all at the website. I think this analysis is worth a post. But I need time to put it together. Hopefully by tomorrow.

Thanks for posting it as I otherwise wasn’t even thinking about it.
Click to expand...
Larry,
You are absolutely amazing ... ;)
Best,
Phil
~~~~~~~~~~~
and BTW ... if that Jamstec ends up anywhere near right, Tony just might get his 3 feet and all would then be good ... :D
 
SD said:
Its just funny when 3 days in a row you get this
964e36218ce131355e8ea993eab38e4b.jpg


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

It’s back building towards you. I’m getting screwed by an out flow boundary.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Damn that got crazy. Lots of limbs and trees down

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Just a little light rain here this evening.
 
SD said:
Damn that got crazy. Lots of limbs and trees down

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah these storms are fun to watch, they are basically stationary and building in all directions. This one to my south was 4.5 miles to the good stuff almost an hour ago now still just over 2 miles. How much rain you get?
485e5bdc331eb0ca40abc1b030d2557b.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Some 2.5 - 3" totals starting to show up just to my south, feel like a flood advisory will go out shortly. It's not weakening at all

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Finally got some good rain for the first time in what seemed to be a while today and this evening, would be surprised if we didn't get around 2".

On a side note, although it looks like it could be a bit off, gonna average low 90s for July. Wow. Not out of the woods yet on real heat for this summer.
 
Can't believe I got blanked tonight Lol, rained east, south, west and northwest of me

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top