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Pattern July '22

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I hope because I'm going on 3 weeks Thursday with no rain!
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This storm over Campobello means business. The lights are constantly flickering and it has been pouring with tons of lightening and solid wind for 15 minutes now. Another storm looks to be coming over the mountains and that line back along 40 looks stout if it can hold together. Could be a potential 2” type of afternoon that we desperately need.
 
SD said:
90 with a dew of 75 and still can't get it done. It's honestly just sad at this point
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Looks like you still have a chance later, say around 10 PM. I hope I can get in on that too

RAH updated with this for tonight for Central NC:

Still expected a band of storms to drop into north central NC later
this afternoon and translate SSE through the evening. Additional
development is possible later tonight, but there is a lot of
uncertainty with this. Daytime heating has pushed MLCAPE values to
2000-2500 J/kg thus far, and while effective shear remains marginal,
it should improve over the next few hours as the convective complex
and its attendant mid level wave approach from the N and NW. The
pace of ongoing convection to our N and NW is a bit ahead of the
latest CAM guidance, suggesting that it will have a longer residence
time within a moderate CAPE environment and thus may survive intact
further south in the CWA than earlier anticipated. Will raise pops
to likely N and chance S, decreasing overnight. Once this convection
reaches close to the Hwy 64 corridor, it should become more outflow
dominant and begin to wane, esp with loss of heating later this
evening. Still expect a decent wind threat as RAP-based mesoanalyses
shows 1000-1400 J/kg of DCAPE ahead of this line, and mid level
lapse rates are predicted to rise a bit to over 6 C/km. The arrival
of a second MCV later tonight and toward Wed morning may allow
additional storms to blossom, esp given model indications of
residual marginal elevated CAPE overnight, although CAM output is
mixed regarding additional convection overnight. Will have just an
isolated pop overnight, given the low confidence, and will monitor.
Expect muggy lows in the low to mid 70s.
 
ragtop50 said:
Looks like you still have a chance later, say around 10 PM. I hope I can get in on that too

RAH updated with this for tonight for Central NC:

Still expected a band of storms to drop into north central NC later
this afternoon and translate SSE through the evening. Additional
development is possible later tonight, but there is a lot of
uncertainty with this. Daytime heating has pushed MLCAPE values to
2000-2500 J/kg thus far, and while effective shear remains marginal,
it should improve over the next few hours as the convective complex
and its attendant mid level wave approach from the N and NW. The
pace of ongoing convection to our N and NW is a bit ahead of the
latest CAM guidance, suggesting that it will have a longer residence
time within a moderate CAPE environment and thus may survive intact
further south in the CWA than earlier anticipated. Will raise pops
to likely N and chance S, decreasing overnight. Once this convection
reaches close to the Hwy 64 corridor, it should become more outflow
dominant and begin to wane, esp with loss of heating later this
evening. Still expect a decent wind threat as RAP-based mesoanalyses
shows 1000-1400 J/kg of DCAPE ahead of this line, and mid level
lapse rates are predicted to rise a bit to over 6 C/km. The arrival
of a second MCV later tonight and toward Wed morning may allow
additional storms to blossom, esp given model indications of
residual marginal elevated CAPE overnight, although CAM output is
mixed regarding additional convection overnight. Will have just an
isolated pop overnight, given the low confidence, and will monitor.
Expect muggy lows in the low to mid 70s.
Click to expand...
I wish I had your optimism. I'm not expecting anything at this point. Line perfectly falls apart again.
 
I wish I had the play by play but I feel like my “blue dot” on the radar map was playing defense and broke up the rain line that appeared to be headed for central Durham County only to watch it dissipate.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
ragtop50 said:
Looks like you still have a chance later, say around 10 PM. I hope I can get in on that too

RAH updated with this for tonight for Central NC:

Still expected a band of storms to drop into north central NC later
this afternoon and translate SSE through the evening. Additional
development is possible later tonight, but there is a lot of
uncertainty with this. Daytime heating has pushed MLCAPE values to
2000-2500 J/kg thus far, and while effective shear remains marginal,
it should improve over the next few hours as the convective complex
and its attendant mid level wave approach from the N and NW. The
pace of ongoing convection to our N and NW is a bit ahead of the
latest CAM guidance, suggesting that it will have a longer residence
time within a moderate CAPE environment and thus may survive intact
further south in the CWA than earlier anticipated. Will raise pops
to likely N and chance S, decreasing overnight. Once this convection
reaches close to the Hwy 64 corridor, it should become more outflow
dominant and begin to wane, esp with loss of heating later this
evening. Still expect a decent wind threat as RAP-based mesoanalyses
shows 1000-1400 J/kg of DCAPE ahead of this line, and mid level
lapse rates are predicted to rise a bit to over 6 C/km. The arrival
of a second MCV later tonight and toward Wed morning may allow
additional storms to blossom, esp given model indications of
residual marginal elevated CAPE overnight, although CAM output is
mixed regarding additional convection overnight. Will have just an
isolated pop overnight, given the low confidence, and will monitor.
Expect muggy lows in the low to mid 70s.
Click to expand...
HRRR says no and it's been on point this week.
 
Thankful for the rain. Probably got way less than anyone else in the county. Only 0.5 and thats shocking with the radar like it was. But it was an hour of light to moderate rain which probably did better for the grass than getting 2 inches in an hour that would have just ran off.
 
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