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Pattern Juggernaut June

71 was the high today at home...in the morning.

It dropped and never got back up there even when the rain stopped. The only thing that's bad is the wind is a direction where you can smell the paper plant. Otherwise that was unbelievable today for June.
 
I've been getting pretty decent rain here on and off since yesterday to add to my ~3.5" for the prior week. Nice drought buster for much of the SE and not from a tropical cyclone!
 
Was looking at the western extent of the heavier rain on the models over the last couple of days and have to say RGEM held it ground and looks to have won this battle. NWS held their ground to and never bit on the NAM and even a couple runs of the EURO that had 1" plus here. Will enjoy having the windows open for a few more nights this June!!!
 
So far 3.54 total back at the homestead since the pattern change... not too bad and not too much.
 
I know it is only been for one day, but we didn't even have a coolish day the whole summer if I remember right last year
 
I am really not looking forward to summer returning Friday and the weekend :( Opened the window here for Junetober
 
Congrats to Greensboro and others for 1-3” tonight. NAM yesterday was too far west by 2 counties.
 
GaWx said:
I've been getting pretty decent rain here on and off since yesterday to add to my ~3.5" for the prior week. Nice drought buster for much of the SE and not from a tropical cyclone!
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The rain finally ended here by about 9PM. My 2 day total is near 1.75” and my total since the pattern change is in the general vicinity of 5.25”. The drought is pretty much history for now. Thanks to Mother Nature I won’t need to water at all anytime soon and for the rest of the summer if we get semi-regular rains from this point.

KSAV got a whopping over 6” the last 2 days and they are well over 10” for June 1-12. That is by a wide margin the most rainfall there for that period since records started in 1871! That already makes June the wettest month by a wide margin since May of 2017. All it would take is about another 1.5” the rest of the month to make this the wettest month since 2000!
 
Stationed in Iredell County NC to see what the sun can cook up this afternoon. Per NAM, I might be in store for a surprise.
 
SD said:
Looks like we get into the typical summer pattern starting Saturday and really getting going next week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints either side of 70. Interesting pattern next week with a zonal flow/ low amplitude trough. Going to be quite a few storm complexes and MCVs around not to mention general afternoon instability storms.

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That's the summers I remember when I was kid, when there was a shot at storms pretty much any afternoon.
 
Saw nothing today. Ready for summer. 49 tonight sucks. No more floods either.
 
Needa watch Sunday if a MCV/SW can get some storms going, especially in western NC, EML advection (with steep mid level lapse rates) combined with moisture return and increasing dew points will likely lead to large CAPE, especially in western NC, altho weak, deep layer shear will be present with around 25-35kts and very weak low level shear aswell (5-15kts), which will likely aid in slight organization if storms manage to develop, again if this thing arrives to early, it wouldn’t be much of a problem ACDF4F20-47B0-4AE5-AF9D-C716B4689030.png7F171833-CCD3-47F3-A3B7-620F0547CCCC.pngC61119F7-897D-4BB2-98DA-5424A9C53178.png8BAFC937-5D6C-468E-96A8-C6BC361B1B24.jpeg
 
It's pouring. Didn't expect that.
 
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Large 3-5” New York to Oklahoma over the next 7 days. AKA..split flow. Some daytime strong to severe storms over the NC mountain counties likely by Monday.
 
53 at RDU , tonight forecast again at 53 but could easily bottom out anywhere from 47 on the low end to 53 on the high end . I’ll guess 50-51. Had breakfast outside was enjoyable though out of place for the season.
 
This blocking pattern will fade in November, along with that, before it fades, there will be a close call system that everyone says “if it was a month later it would snow”
Patten is so predictable
Than a -EPO will take over offering a miller B transfer/CAD setup at early December
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This blocking pattern will fade in November, along with that, before it fades, there will be a close call system that everyone says “if it was a month later it would snow”
Patten is so predictable
Than a -EPO will take over offering a miller B transfer/CAD setup at early December
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Yep, sounds about right...
 
ForsythSnow said:
I've got 48 here. It feels chilly outside and it's quite strange being able to see your breath in mid June.
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We ended up dropping to 49. My superintendent actually had the heat on in the job trailer.
 
pcbjr said:
Always looking for a positive, and something good to say ... here's hopefully one for a mid-June afternoon that is in that direction ...

View attachment 20416

:cool:
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I expect to get my toosh OUTSIDE walking this evening for the first time in nearly a month! Dewpoints here are in the mid 50s with temps in the low 80s. Hard to beat for mid-June and it could easily be til Sep before seeing that combo again!
 
GaWx said:
I expect to get my toosh OUTSIDE walking this evening for the first time in nearly a month! Dewpoints here are in the mid 50s with temps in the low 80s. Hard to beat for mid-June and it could easily be til Sep before seeing that combo again!
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Larry,
What an incredible N FL June morning for a walk ... :cool:
 
Look over some of the data during the recent flood. 2.5” of rain fell in 20mins in Wilkes. Highest total here was over 15” so not the biggest winner.
 
I’m assuming JB has seen this already
af330612a126ccf595e5774432192ed0.jpg



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Storm5 said:
I’m assuming JB has seen this already
af330612a126ccf595e5774432192ed0.jpg



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Charlie,
I just could not bring myself to post that when I saw it ... was afraid the pigs would go into permanent hiding ... or flat out disappear from the CONUS ...
o_O
 
Storm5 said:
I’m assuming JB has seen this already
af330612a126ccf595e5774432192ed0.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Not this crap again lol. I’m not falling for this BS. The models and JB were similar for last winter, which lead to about as bad busts as I’ve ever seen. With the FV3 now operational, all major models are solidly cold biased. There’s no reason to believe that the seasonal models like this one aren’t also cold biased, especially after their terrible performance for last winter. I’m wondering if the cold bias is largely due to global warming not being handled well.
Does anyone know what model this is?
I noticed that recently JB, like almost every year at this time, is hinting at an “interesting winter” for the E US. Surprise, surprise. He mentioned Modoki El Niño. His cold bias is even worse than the models’ bias. He’s such a laugh. I’m totally numb to his winter predictions.
I’m going with a mild winter as of now. Even though I prefer cold ones, mild winters don’t bother me much because the winter is always awesome compared to summers.
 
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