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Pattern Juggernaut June

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Thanks. That lightning detector has been accurate as although I’ve gotten pretty good rain the last 15 minutes or so and the winds kicked up some, I’ve seen no lightning nor heard any thunder as your link’s map suggests for here.
I try ... :cool:
 
Storms looking less likely as timing is now pushed back to around 10pm! What a crap fest! Here comes the drought!! Wait, the .009 I got today, will renew the water table!?
 
Storms looking less likely as timing is now pushed back to around 10pm! What a crap fest! Here comes the drought!! Wait, the .009 I got today, will renew the water table!
Glad someone shares my sentiments. But drought never happens and it has up be hot for the pools!

In all seriousness though the upcoming pattern isn't ideal and if some areas continue to stay dry or receive low end totals its going to start turning brown again soon
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What a difference a month makes. I received a grand total of .77 rain the entire month of May (well up till around 8 pm on the 31st) but since then, including the storms on the night of the 31st, I've picked up 5.35. Always seems to be feast or famine and as @SD pointed out above probably about to head back to the famine side of things.
 
Last few HRRR runs have trended back toward the 18z and 00z of last night. More CAPE in place and has all of the remnant stuff down along the Gulf rapidly dying.

If this happens we could still see an impressive line today.12Z-20190624_HRRRSE_prec_radar-5-16-70-200.gif
 
Cape is outperforming HRRR.
Here is 13z cape vs the 10z hrrr prediction.

Even the 12z hrrr is behind in Eastern TN on cape.

This has major implications downstream into SC and NC as well as we need a line to survive the mountains to have a shot for you guys!
sbcp_sf.gifsbcape.us_ov.png

Given this disparity even in the 12z HRRR I would not be surprised at all to see the HRRR continue to trend toward a line over the next few runs.

Atmosphere is clearing rapidly and evolving in very similar fashion to the 18z and 00z runs. Cape is a little behind those runs but its much higher than the recent runs as well.
 
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Enhanced Risk issued for extreme western North Carolina and north-east Tennessee.
 
Wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of power outages...for northern mtns/foothills. Maybe Winston, Troutman and north Charlotte. Gusts to 55mph look easily achievable but some embedded 60-80mph from Mountain City TN to Elkin NC if the momentum off the mountain provides a local boost maxima. I would consider Enhanced Risk along and west of i77 but mostly north of Hickory.
 
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