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Pattern Juggernaut June

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Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms with primarily a strong to
damaging wind threat may develop this afternoon. Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms should continue to strengthen across middle into
eastern TN this afternoon along a trailing boundary extending
southward from a MCV in western/central KY. It appears that
large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to an upper trough over the
mid MD Valley and Upper Midwest may only glance this region. Even
so, low-level convergence along the trailing outflow boundary should
prove sufficient for additional convective development over the next
couple of hours as MLCAPE increases into the 1000-2000 J/kg range
downstream. An unseasonably strong belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly
winds is present around 700 mb from middle/eastern TN into AL and
much of GA this afternoon per VWP estimates from area radars and 17Z
mesoanalysis. As diurnal mixing of the boundary layer continues
across this region, low-level lapse rates will steepen further.
Strong to damaging winds may occur with storms as the enhanced flow
present at 700 mb reaches the surface through convective downdrafts.
Relatively greater storm coverage is anticipated across
middle/eastern TN this afternoon in closer proximity to the upper
trough, although isolated development may also occur farther south
into northeastern AL and northern/central GA. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may eventually be needed this afternoon for some part of this
region depending on radar trends.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of power outages...for northern mtns/foothills. Maybe Winston, Troutman and north Charlotte. Gusts to 55mph look easily achievable but some embedded 60-80mph from Mountain City TN to Elkin NC if the momentum off the mountain provides a local boost maxima. I would consider Enhanced Risk along and west of i77 but mostly north of Hickory.
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Not to mention the fact that there is 3500 SB Cape on the lee side.

Any boundary blasting through will have PLENTY of energy to work with
 
BufordWX said:
View attachment 20635
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms with primarily a strong to
damaging wind threat may develop this afternoon. Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms should continue to strengthen across middle into
eastern TN this afternoon along a trailing boundary extending
southward from a MCV in western/central KY. It appears that
large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to an upper trough over the
mid MD Valley and Upper Midwest may only glance this region. Even
so, low-level convergence along the trailing outflow boundary should
prove sufficient for additional convective development over the next
couple of hours as MLCAPE increases into the 1000-2000 J/kg range
downstream. An unseasonably strong belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly
winds is present around 700 mb from middle/eastern TN into AL and
much of GA this afternoon per VWP estimates from area radars and 17Z
mesoanalysis. As diurnal mixing of the boundary layer continues
across this region, low-level lapse rates will steepen further.
Strong to damaging winds may occur with storms as the enhanced flow
present at 700 mb reaches the surface through convective downdrafts.
Relatively greater storm coverage is anticipated across
middle/eastern TN this afternoon in closer proximity to the upper
trough, although isolated development may also occur farther south
into northeastern AL and northern/central GA. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may eventually be needed this afternoon for some part of this
region depending on radar trends.
Click to expand...
Great! There goes my chance of rain ???
 
GaStorm said:
I was in Orlando last week and there was actually a cool day (last Wednesday) before the heat came on. Was nice to actually be outside without the 100+ degree heat index lol.
Click to expand...
"Like", except please do not confuse me with Orlando (or Whorelando to be more precise) ... that place is a whole 'nother world, and climate ... :cool:
 
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I’m liking the look of things to my west right now. If that line west of Atlanta right now continues to strengthen it might be an interesting evening around here.

Edit: Severe thunderstorm warning just got issued to my west. Also interestingly, no watch has been issued here so far, so according to some it might be crush city here tonight.:D
 
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Curious why the watch is until 1am when it looks like only this line of storms is going to go by. Is there more data that says it could produce more? Just curious and I hope its not as crazy windy as yesterday!

Edited: I mean for GA, not NC and SC, I get why they need it until 1am.
 
Here we go. Severe thunderstorm Warning issued here for 60 mph wind gusts and penny sized hail.F5C87EA8-1C37-4836-B839-44C30E0951B7.png
 
gaikkeb said:
Curious why the watch is until 1am when it looks like only this line of storms is going to go by. Is there more data that says it could produce more? Just curious and I hope its not as crazy windy as yesterday!

Edited: I mean for GA, not NC and SC, I get why they need it until 1am.
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It will almost surely be canceled early. Watches are gradually cancelled as the severe weather passes. 1 AM will be when the part of the watch that is still active will expire.
 
BufordWX said:
It will almost surely be canceled early. Watches are gradually cancelled as the severe weather passes. 1 AM will be when the part of the watch that is still active will expire.
Click to expand...

Ok, thanks for the info! I usually see that happening but it always makes me wonder! Just heard the first rumble here and its gotten REALLY dark out!
 
Well FML. Got a clean split here.

Just some outflow winds and a somewhat decent shelf cloud.
 
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