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Pattern Jarring January

With the teleconnections, La Nina history, and MJO wanting to go into 3 and possibly 4, we better get what we can before the 10th because after that looks warm, and compared to now VERY warm
 
Perhaps I’m just over analyzing but the 12z gfs seems to be trending favorably with some of the systems to come.


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Tarheel1 said:
FWIW, JB said a January thaw is coming mid to late January, but will make a big return in Feb!
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I just glanced over the recent Euro Weeklies. Guess he took them at face value.

I do see a signal for a larger storm at some point; in some form. and some shots of mixed/zr off and on.

Anything that far out is a crapshoot though. The PNA looks to stay positive for the next little while at least, and the negative EPO looks to finally let go towards Mid Jan... -NAO into FEB.. But again, crapshoot.
 
I've seen a snow to my north and now possibly to my south in Gray, GA can't seem to get one to hit us straight on or at least have some snow here however small it may be. Maybe that will change in the coming weeks prolly not lol
 
I guess we shouldn't sleep on Sunday night!? Will be very cold dry air in place! If precip arrives early enough, could be a little frozen before going to rain
 
Lots of people well inland may be disappointed. The NAM is an extreme for parts of SC anyways and even it, you can see sharp cutoff of Wintry precipitation.

I guess cross fingers for a surprise!
 
Shawn said:
Lots of people well inland may be disappointed. The NAM is an extreme for parts of SC anyways and even it, you can see sharp cutoff of Wintry precipitation.

I guess cross fingers for a surprise!
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I won't be disappointed getting nothing, and I will be more disappointed if Florida and Savannah see no snow. If we get a surprise few flakes, I wouldn't mind, but I know there is next to 0% chance of us seeing anything here.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I won't be disappointed getting nothing, and I will be more disappointed if Florida and Savannah see no snow. If we get a surprise few flakes, I wouldn't mind, but I know there is next to 0% chance of us seeing anything here.
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Yeah l agree l hope everyone gets some winter weather this year after a very bad winter last year :cool:
 
Here is another 10 day threat right at 240 on the gfs. Probably a overrunning threat with another batch of energy coming in from the west.
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Shawn said:
I just glanced over the recent Euro Weeklies. Guess he took them at face value.

I do see a signal for a larger storm at some point; in some form. and some shots of mixed/zr off and on.

Anything that far out is a crapshoot though. The PNA looks to stay positive for the next little while at least, and the negative EPO looks to finally let go towards Mid Jan... -NAO into FEB.. But again, crapshoot.
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Like him or not look at his winter outlook from October. Been close and has nailed the pattern. Still hard to beat for long range forecasting.
 
POWERSTROKE said:
Like him or not look at his winter outlook from October. Been close and has nailed the pattern. Still hard to beat for long range forecasting.
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I like JB just fine. He's even done interviews with us before. I am just saying, that he, along with many others, are wrong sometimes and looking over what was said, he may be using the Euro Weeklies.
 
DadOfJax said:
Looks like our return to normal is coming next week and for the foreseeable future . All this cold and nothing to show for it in AL.....shame! Can we bring on spring on yet?
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Wouldn't quite say that. I don't see anything as cold as it has been, but both the EPS and GEFS still have a -EPO nearly the entire run with +PNA spikes here and there. Looks transient, but any warm up looks brief.
 
Ummmmm..... Somebody look at the CMC run and to some extent GFS for Monday !!!! Ice storm crush job from ATL to CLT!! Flying under radars!!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Ummmmm..... Somebody look at the CMC run and to some extent GFS for Monday !!!! Ice storm crush job from ATL to CLT!! Flying under radars!!
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We are all too busy watching this storm at the moment. If it gets within 72 hours I'll start a thread or allow one to be started. Not going to let this pseudo storm thread happen again after all that wasted potential of storms lol.
 
Yeah after today passes plenty of time to review the 8th thru the 13th period GFS and CMC have definitely hinted at chance for CAD/ICE or overrunning snow in those periods past 3-4 runs and both are 5-9 day range which means nothing as we've seen
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, it crushes ATL GSP CLT RAH' with ice!!!! But I'm in the bullseye at 5 days out! I hope RAH ends up in the bullseye, y'all do well with ice!
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We can't even get ice anymore. Last big ice storm was 2002.
 
weatherfide said:
I've been watching that time frame. Watch for suppression. Trending further south with vorticity at 500 mb and the surface low for a few runs now.
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Meh, no Arctic high up north. There's a stale Arctic airnass in place, as precip arrives, in GSP area, temps in 20s with DP in single digits. In situ damming would lock in. About 5 days out, don't see it getting squashed, but who knows
 
With temps rising next week the best you could hope for most everyone outside of the NC/Tenn mountains is zr starting and then changing to plain rain after a short period of icing in the foothills and western NC
 
MichaelJ said:
With temps rising next week the best you could hope for most everyone outside of the NC/Tenn mountains is zr starting and then changing to plain rain after a short period of icing in the foothills and western NC
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Not with a stout wedge. If we get a wedge and we wetbulb below freezing, it will be nasty until it stops raining. Once the rain starts and its subfreezing, it will stay that way. Only way out is it starts later in the day. Get it earlier and it's a bad situation.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not with a stout wedge. If we get a wedge and we wetbulb below freezing, it will be nasty until it stops raining. Once the rain starts and its subfreezing, it will stay that way. Only way out is it starts later in the day. Get it earlier and it's a bad situation.
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Yep! Basically what the CMC shows! Worse case scenario
 
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