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Pattern Jarring January

Storm5 said:
Euro was headed for glory day ten

We track


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUi can't wait to see how that turns out. Probably we'll get screwed again considering it's so far out. Save yourself from the useless chase with no results now in my opinion. Not being mean but we see how the other storms turn out and now apparently Savannah and Charleston are about to get more snow than us! Ridiculous
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Storm5 said:
Then let’s shut the damn board down and go home. What the hell is the point of having a weather board if we are not going to discuss the weather short term and long term . Better yet , why did you sign up if you feel that way
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I'm not saying don't look at the long term. You see despite the fact we've been cold for so long, we can't even get a snowstorm. Now all models are in agreement that a warm up is coming and we have to kick the can to day 10 knowing full well it may look very much different than now with still no snow results. If we went this long with so much cold and still couldn't produce my confidence is low now. I wish I could get as much snow as Savannah and Charleston could get in my lifetime. And they are way further south. Eric's s/w from California theory may not work and we could be done for the rest of the year, who knows? Im just a really big snow lover. We get rain all the time and it's not really that interesting. It may be needed but what's so entertaining about it? We get it ALL the time. It gets boring
 
Clayton Reid said:
I'm not saying don't look at the long term. You see despite the fact we've been cold for so long, we can't even get a snowstorm. Now all models are in agreement that a warm up is coming and we have to kick the can to day 10 knowing full well it may look very much different than now with still no snow results. If we went this long with so much cold and still couldn't produce my confidence is low now. I wish I could get as much snow as Savannah and Charleston could get in my lifetime. And they are way further south. Eric's s/w from California theory may not work and we could be done for the rest of the year, who knows? Im just a really big snow lover. We get rain all the time and it's not really that interesting. It may be needed but what's so entertaining about it? We get it ALL the time. It gets boring
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What are you talking about? Does this look like a warm up to you in the long range? If you ask me It’s starting to feel like you are trolling the board.

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Arcc said:
Long range GEFS and EPS agree, -EPO reigns supreme the whole model cycle.
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Yep. Dr. Cohen also tweeted about the CFS run from today showing cold in East warm in West through March...fwiw.
EPS 10-15 day mean.
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for those who poo-pooed the Gfs.. turns out it was pretty on the mark at 180 for this cold spell currently:
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yeah, in places it's off by one magnitude or so, but here in my area, pretty close. It had the right idea first anyway on the severe cold outbreak.
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Why is it always day 10??? :(
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Because outside days 6-7 (being generous) models are wrong to what really happens. Its best to get an idea of the pattern/bigger features. Not things like actual temperatures, precip, and potential storm systems.
 
A couple of the local mets and offices talking about a little wintry mix Sunday morning depending on how fast the moisture moves in.
 
In my experience, generally speaking the times we have gotten our biggest storms have been on the front of a pattern shift. With this type of cold pattern though it is very likely we see something. It may not be as "big" as we would want. Fingers are crossed that we all get something before this cold plays out. It's easy to get on edge though as most of us want the big one. Right now I'm rooting for the guys near the coast this week and hopefully we'll have a shot very soon.
 
Clayton Reid said:
I'm not saying don't look at the long term. You see despite the fact we've been cold for so long, we can't even get a snowstorm. Now all models are in agreement that a warm up is coming and we have to kick the can to day 10 knowing full well it may look very much different than now with still no snow results. If we went this long with so much cold and still couldn't produce my confidence is low now. I wish I could get as much snow as Savannah and Charleston could get in my lifetime. And they are way further south. Eric's s/w from California theory may not work and we could be done for the rest of the year, who knows? Im just a really big snow lover. We get rain all the time and it's not really that interesting. It may be needed but what's so entertaining about it? We get it ALL the time. It gets boring
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GFS has 0 frozen for most on the board, through the end of its 18z run
 
hartselleweather said:
We still have the pattern for something good. No worries.
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Yeah, if the SE trend of storms so far, we could be good. But on the GFS , there just looked to be 2-3 frontal passages
 
I think the 12z euro control run had a nice winter storm incoming but I couldn’t find the maps on weathermodels.com.
 
hartselleweather said:
I think the 12z euro control run had a nice winter storm incoming but I couldn’t find the maps on weathermodels.com.
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Yes, the 12z Euro EPS control has a beginning of a winter system at day 10 over the Plains, but it has the system cutting after day 10. It's a good ways out so things will change of course.
 
^send that puppy directly to clown maps, do not pass Go.. lol It's beautiful though..
 
So, thought about getting rid of Spectrum cable and switching to Century Link for internet and getting Hulu Live and Netflix to save money. Well, Century Link only has 10 mbps internet speed here, while Spectrum is 60 mbps. If I just kept the Spectrum internet and dropped cable, and added Hulu Live and Netflix, it would only save me $20 per month. Guess I'm keeping Spectrum and going to try to haggle with them to lower the bill.
 
Also the main run of the euro was heading for the same outcome if you look at the h5 look. At least I think it was. Also it has our wave coming in on the California coast like Webber was talking about.
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Hmmm, the GFS says keep an eye on the period around the 9th. Good west coast ridge, deep trough pushing down and an busy STJ cutting under the ridge.

It would take some work but if we could get a northern s/w to back down the ridge into the SW it would open the door to some overrunning along the Arctic front.
 
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Arcc said:
Hmmm, the GFS says keep an eye on the period around the 9th. Good west coast ridge, deep trough pushing down and an busy STJ cutting under the ridge.

It would take some work but if we could get a northern s/w to back down the ridge into the SW it would open the door to some overrunning along the Arctic front.
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Okay I'm in. Lol
 
Other than the Atlantic Coast people, this place is dead....sucks to be so cold with only chapped lips to show for it.
 
GFS continues to show lots of rainstorms till the end of its run. Looks ninoish, and too warm for frozen, verbatim
 
FWIW, JB said a January thaw is coming mid to late January, but will make a big return in Feb!
 
Tarheel1 said:
FWIW, JB said a January thaw is coming mid to late January, but will make a big return in Feb!
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If the thaw does occur, it won't be a surprise at all. A lot of times warm ups do occur after a long period of severe cold. But, I agree, warm up then back to cold. Weather system's in between pattern shifts.
 
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tractor girl said:
One night of cold weather won't do it, but a week of freezing temps may kill off a few insects. There's that right?
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This severe cold snap won't "kill" off mosquito's. Alaska and Canada has the worse mosquito's. I think the whole saying of, "this severe cold snap will kill off bugs," is a southern folk lore.
 
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