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Pattern Januworry

wxdaniel said:
A triple phase? How can you tell that with those maps?


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I'm pretty sure triple phase you can tell by looking at the 250mb wind speed plot like above. Just means all the energy is in one stream if I'm certain. Stacked lows from the surface up.
 
Zander98al said:
I'm pretty sure triple phase you can tell by looking at the 250mb wind speed plot like above. Just means all the energy is in one stream if I'm certain. Stacked lows from the surface up.
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S
Arcc said:
If that is the storm in the 180hr range, don’t be shocked to see that trend south.
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The south of Montgomery trend when lows are that far south? Lol don't understand why they do that. They're either Northwest of the Alabama state line or south of Montgomery never in-between lol
 
Zander98al said:
S

The south of Montgomery trend when lows are that far south? Lol don't understand why they do that. They're either Northwest of the Alabama state line or south of Montgomery never in-between lol
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Wouldn’t be surprised to see that trend into a winter storm threat for some parts of the south(probably the TN area. )
 
Arcc said:
Wouldn’t be surprised to see that trend into a winter storm threat for some parts of the south(probably the TN area. )
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What's interesting is it's had an idea of overunning cold and precip on the backside of system for places west of our state, if we play our cards right we might see a few snowflakes with this getting south of Montgomery and.moving Northeast lol.
 
Zander98al said:
What's interesting is it's had an idea of overunning cold and precip on the backside of system for places west of our state, if we play our cards right we might see a few snowflakes with this getting south of Montgomery and.moving Northeast lol.
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This is the idea I was referring too, it's only these last couple of runs it seems to close off the low, and do away with the overrunning backside precip. Screenshot_20220126-171148.png
 
GaWx said:
January of 2022 is going to join the ranks of some memorable Jan’s in the SE like 2018, 2014, 2011, 2005, 2002, and 2000.
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Definitely for a lot of areas. Tennessee and northern Alabama had some good storms, and northeastern Georgia up through the Carolinas had a great January. CAE got their first measurable snow in quite some years, which was great to see. Beech Mountain has had 43.5 inches of snow for the month, which is incredible for them.

I would give MBY a solid B- with slightly above normal temps and a nice 2" event that most of the area missed. For KATL its a solid C+ with slightly above normal temps, a meager .3" of snowfall.
 
Zander98al said:
Did tropical tidbits make changes to the EURO model on there website? It only shows 00z and 06z and only goes out to like 90 hours
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Yes a lot more parameters now. 500 vort on the high res.. precip.. it's good.. snowfall and ptype maps still not there.. but can't help what the euro is giving out for free. Better than what we had.

The 18 & 06z runs only go to 90. The 00 and 12 will do 240
 
The MJO has been inside the circle (mainly left half) since January 15th along with a +PNA. Since then, the SE US has had BN most days (coldest period of winter) along with a bonus of two significant winter storms in portions of the SE (mainly NE GA to Carolinas). This MJO/PNA pattern looks to continue through an upcoming third wintry event (good portion of Carolinas):

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GaWx said:
The MJO has been inside the circle (mainly left half) since January 15th along with a +PNA. Since then, the SE US has had BN most days (coldest period of winter) along with a bonus of two significant winter storms in portions of the SE (mainly NE GA to Carolinas). This MJO/PNA pattern looks to continue through an upcoming third wintry event (good portion of Carolinas):

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View attachment 110953
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I remember when we were suppose to “loop back into phase 6” like a month ago .. thought the models were over doing that a bit and look at us now .. stuck in winters grasp
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I remember when we were suppose to “loop back into phase 6” like a month ago .. thought the models were over doing that a bit and look at us now .. stuck in winters grasp
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Nice observation although that (going into phase 6) was only the Euro’s prediction. The Euro has been doing poorly overall with the GEFS doing way better as it has largely kept it inside the circle.
 
14 This morning, and i don't know how many other teens. Lowest so far this month was 10, and to think i was wearing shorts in the beginning.
 
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