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Pattern Januworry

Shaggy said:
Personally I'd still like to see a bit of suppression at this range. Hate to see this trend NW and ruin it for everyone.
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I agree. I like the HP building in over the top but is that enough to keep it from amping and going NW? I can see this thing tracking inland and spoiling it for the Eastern half of NC/SC before all is said and done. Not sure but maybe this setup is different.
 
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mrdaddyman said:
I agree. I like the HP building in over the top but is that enough to keep it from amping and going NW? I can see this thing tracking inland and spoiling it for the Eastern half of NC/SC before all is said and done.
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It could be a Big hit for WNC and upstate Sc. Probably best a storm has looked for those areas in quite some time.

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Both RAH and MHX mentioning the potential in their overnight discos.

this was MHX

Saturday and Sunday...High pressure will briefly ridge into the
area Saturday before another upper level trough arrives and
induces surface low development of the next storm system.
Previous model runs and the current CMC show this low developing
over the Mid Atlantic and then dragging a cold front through
Eastern NC Saturday night, however both the latest GFS and ECMWF
show surface low development much farther south and over the
Carolinas. In these scenarios, Arctic high pressure over Eastern
Canada provides enough cold air this far south for a more
wintry precipitation solution. Will continue to monitor this
trend in the guidance, but with lack of run to run consistency
just yet, will keep precip from this system Saturday night and
Sunday as all rain for this cycle.
 
GSP has the first mention of the weekend potential:

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 am EST Monday: The numerical models now feature somewhat
better agreement for Thursday with a lobe of stronger vorticity
diving into the base of the developing eastern trough, leading to
amplification of the trough axis near the southern Appalachians.
This clipper type feature may amplify just in time to pick up modest
moisture, but moisture in profiles will still be a limiting factor
for mentionable PoPs as the low-level flow appears cut off from any
significant Gulf or Atlantic source. In addition, any surface
cyclogenesis ahead of the wave and along the passing front will
occur nearer the coast. Still, steep mid-level lapse rates in excess
of 7 deg C/km will warrant some PoP mention Thursday for at least
the northern tier, with continued low PoPs for northwest flow snow
showers into Thursday night as the trough and front move east. If
nothing else, the Thursday system should bring a reinforcing shot of
cold air to the region.

Modest ridging sets in between systems on Friday, but it is
uncertain how much of a lull will occur as stronger height falls
develop quickly from the Midwest through the Ohio Valley Friday
night into Saturday. Moisture should have a better chance of
returning ahead of the Saturday system as it now appears to amplify
well west of the southern Appalachians, with upglide developing atop
our region on Saturday. There is growing potential for profiles to
be cold enough for wintry ptypes across at least the northern half
of the forecast area on Saturday, if not throughout by Saturday
night. The 00Z GFS has trended toward the earlier ECMWF runs with
regard to some potential for wintry weather Saturday/Saturday night.
The sharp upper trough passage is likely Saturday night before
northwest flow returns on Sunday along with drier profiles. This
system will bear watching, but run-to-run consistency has been too
low thus far to include an HWO mention of wintry weather potential.
 
A battle between the GFS and Euro.

RAH:
By Saturday evening the GFS and ECMWF agree that there should be
precipitation over central North Carolina, but from wildly different
systems. The GFS shows a surface low move southeast from Chicago to
West Virginia before developing a second low off the NC coast, while
the ECMWF has a low move across Alabama and Georgia which then
strengthens near the Outer Banks before continuing east. There is
definitely a chance of precipitation through the weekend and
precipitation type could be an issue, although the temperature
profiles would look much different depending on which model
verifies. The highest chances for precipitation appear to be
Saturday night, although precipitation would likely start during the
day on Saturday and linger into Sunday.
 
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