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Pattern Januworry

FFC's take:

At the surface, high pressure will prevail much of the time. A
strong cold front/low pressure system is progged to move through
Saturday into Sunday, bringing the next chances for significant
precipitation.

There are some differences between the ECMWF for the long term. The
ECMWF is producing some light precip with the strong shortwave energy
late Thursday into Friday while the GFS is dry. The second
difference is for the Saturday into Sunday system. The GFS is much
further north with the low pressure track, while the ECMWF looks to
be further south and wetter. Will stick with the blend for now.

NListemaa

&&
 
deltadog03 said:
So far so good, but I would I like to the see the high pressure further south, but more importantly, built in quicker.
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Yep further south by 100 miles would make a huge difference for people in SC snd NGa. Another fact is the strength of the high, 1029 is not that strong. I'd really like to see it at 1035 or so
 
Broken024 said:
I'm just going to pretend like I didn't see this
View attachment 103190
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We will definitely start getting this look on the models as we head into February as the same pattern from December likely comes back for typical Nina climo but the GFS progressive bias rushes pattern changes. Just like December it rushed the pattern change by roughly 10 days, that is almost certain of the case here. But this does tell me that our window of opportunity for cold and winter weather is between now and the 2nd week of Feb before we probably head to the trashcan until at least March.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Love to see it consolidating/locking onto low track. + any SE tick will be much appreciated
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Yep, I’m sure this will try to amplify as we get closer and tick nw, the more this ticks SE, the better since this will probably come NW and amped last minute, this has potential to be a big dog imo
 
After looking through the models from last night this morning a few things are standing out. In the short range we are really starting to dig energy further southwest with each run which is the same thing that happened that caused the snow across NC, Tenn, Alabama, and Georgia previously. That is a very good trend you want to see, it allows for more precip to build and it pulls colder air much further south which is what we are seeing. As others have said, as the pattern looks now I think we could get a legit snow probably from the halfway point between I85 and I20 north. If we can continue to build high pressure to the north by continuing the strengthening of the 50/50 Low and pushing the TPV further south, then those south of I20 can really get into the game.
 
SD said:
Prob going to start 3 threads today depending on the 12z runs one from Thursday- Friday, one for sat- Monday, one for next Tues-thursday to break this up a bit
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That first sets the stage for the other 2 but it is really interesting and a good sign that the first wave is starting to dig further and further southwest which is causing these NW trends with the precip and ushering in more cold air. That happened with the 2 previous events last week and is happening here as well. I think we are going to start seeing that even more for the other 2 potentials as well which is a really good thing.
 
I hope this doesnt happen. I know enough to know when California gets rain and snow it warms up in the east.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, I’m sure this will try to amplify as we get closer and tick nw, the more this ticks SE, the better since this will probably come NW and amped last minute, this has potential to be a big dog imo
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I'm worried the vort for the weekend system gets sheared/elongated especially with another wave trailing but we will see. One of the next 3 is likely a solid hit but determining which one particularly between 2 and 3 isn't going to be easy
 
SD said:
I'm worried the vort for the weekend system gets sheared/elongated especially with another wave trailing but we will see. One of the next 3 is likely a solid hit but determining which one particularly between 2 and 3 isn't going to be easy
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What I'd like to see is the first one not get too sheared and then move into position to help us with the second one.
 
griteater said:
For the potential weekend system, the 06z EPS Mean bumped north from the 00z run with the wave track thru TN. The wave track and how it sharpens as it rounds the base of the trough are key here

e9mj0I8.gif
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Like others have said, I would like to see it farther south at this range. We know how perfect or bear perfect tracks usually evolve 7 days out. This may not fall into that bucket for a number of reasons, but it's hard not to think about it anyway.
 
Rain Cold said:
Like others have said, I would like to see it farther south at this range. We know how perfect or bear perfect tracks usually evolve 7 days out. This may not fall into that bucket for a number of reasons, but it's hard not to think about it anyway.
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Yeah, concern is more that it won't dig far enough SW and sharpen IMO, but long way to go.
 
griteater said:
For the potential weekend system, the 06z EPS Mean bumped north from the 00z run with the wave track thru TN. The wave track and how it sharpens as it rounds the base of the trough are key here

e9mj0I8.gif
Click to expand...
Yeah that's my concern here is this vort gets sheared/stretched versus a consolidated wave look at how the control changedecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-vort500_z500-2312800 (1).png
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-vort500_z500-2312800.png
 
SD said:
I'm worried the vort for the weekend system gets sheared/elongated especially with another wave trailing but we will see. One of the next 3 is likely a solid hit but determining which one particularly between 2 and 3 isn't going to be easy
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I agree, certainly could shear out or just become a run of the mill clipper
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I agree, certainly could shear out or just become a run of the mill clipper
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The good thing is even if we get some stretching shearing for most of NC it's still a snow event and potentially for more locations. You lose the super high 6+ inch ceiling but you decrease mid level waa and mixing potential
 
SD said:
The good thing is even if we get some stretching shearing for most of NC it's still a snow event and potentially for more locations. You lose the super high 6+ inch ceiling but you decrease mid level waa and mixing potential
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yep agree. a widespread 1"+ event would be a major win esp for the clt area down into sc.
 
SD said:
The good thing is even if we get some stretching shearing for most of NC it's still a snow event and potentially for more locations. You lose the super high 6+ inch ceiling but you decrease mid level waa and mixing potential
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That was my thought, amped events never work out for our area....we tend to rain while 50 miles west it's heavy now.
 
SD said:
I'm worried the vort for the weekend system gets sheared/elongated especially with another wave trailing but we will see. One of the next 3 is likely a solid hit but determining which one particularly between 2 and 3 isn't going to be easy
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The needle thread here or magic lotto #'s is to get the spacing just right between each. Thats our hurdle or hurdles with each. Starts with Thursdays bomb that blows up and helps with the confluence for the weekend. But its got to be in just the right spot so the weekend NS dives just right
 
SD said:
Yeah that's my concern here is this vort gets sheared/stretched versus a consolidated wave look at how the control changedView attachment 103210
View attachment 103211
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You see the Low off NE, how close back toward the east coast it is. Thats what causes the vort for the weekend to shear out bottom frame you posted. It cant amp, needs more space I beleive.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Models are starting to see a -PNA around the 23-25th or so, esp the EPS, the gefs looks better however
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I bet that change is a little bit rushed. Each -PNA and +PNA cycle has been running about 30 days each. We flipped to a +PNA just recently, so I bet we go into the first week of February before it flips. That being said, February is toast for winter weather after the first week and then March will be below normal, but that's useless to me by then.

I need to chase something in the next two weeks if I'm going to see snow this year.
 
Going to be a lot of chatter of the impending -PNA that will likely come end of Jan into Feb....but, if we can keep getting help from WPO/EPO than maybe Feb won't be a total loss.


Recall we had a -PNA for 2 events last week.
compday.rvyZlY_MH3.gif
 
KyloG said:
That was my thought, amped events never work out for our area....we tend to rain while 50 miles west it's heavy now.
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It's a delicate balance for those outside of the mountains and triad. Too strong of an upper level system puts 850/700 to our west for the first half of the system then probably along the nc/SC border and the initial snow line races W-NW like Usain bolt and we are sleet/rain/zr. Too weak and the wave is apt to end up farther north and we rain anyway. There's a nice sweet spot in the middle that can snow from the mountains to the coast (2-4 even 3-6) with even snow down into parts of SC/GA it's just getting that has been similar to picking lotto numbers
 
SD said:
It's a delicate balance for those outside of the mountains and triad. Too strong of an upper level system puts 850/700 to our west for the first half of the system then probably along the nc/SC border and the initial snow line races W-NW like Usain bolt and we are sleet/rain/zr. Too weak and the wave is apt to end up farther north and we rain anyway. There's a nice sweet spot in the middle that can snow from the mountains to the coast (2-4 even 3-6) with even snow down into parts of SC/GA it's just getting that has been similar to picking lotto numbers
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What’s surprising me, is how bold the euro/EPS has been with it, normally it’s the model that kills hopes and dreams
 
KyloG said:
Going to be a lot of chatter of the impending -PNA that will likely come end of Jan into Feb....but, if we can keep getting help from WPO/EPO than maybe Feb won't be a total loss.


Recall we had a -PNA for 2 events last week.
View attachment 103214
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we can have a board wide (hell almost country wide) hit with a -PNA if other indices help.
 
deltadog03 said:
we can have a board wide (hell almost country wide) hit with a -PNA if other indices help.
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The transition to when we -PNA should be watched there’s probably gonna be some leftover vortex on the east/SE can trying to move out when energy from the west ejects
 
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Not sure things prog better for ATL with this next system. Seems like far northeast Georgia has the best shot. Otherwise a snoozer as it stands right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
What’s surprising me, is how bold the euro/EPS has been with it, normally it’s the model that kills hopes and dreams
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Agree its certainly a reason for optimism. Remember how far east the models originally had the Friday clipper and look at how far SW the trough axis has inched in the last few days. Obviously not all situations are the same but have to wonder if we start seeing the gfs/gefs inch SW with that system more toward the eps/euro and maybe a little ticking NE of the eps
 
SD said:
Agree its certainly a reason for optimism. Remember how far east the models originally had the Friday clipper and look at how far SW the trough axis has inched in the last few days. Obviously not all situations are the same but have to wonder if we start seeing the gfs/gefs inch SW with that system more toward the eps/euro and maybe a little ticking NE of the eps
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Yep, that trend with the clipper has really established the cold airmass we need, wonder if we’re seeing the progressive bias perhaps ?
 
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