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Pattern Januworry

Gfs really went gang busters at the end of its run multiple days in the 20s and lows approaching single digits for many towards the end of the run .. probably terrible wind chills but also it helps with RATES !!! Check this bad boy out .. close to being a big boy but probably still decent with the rates being very good with this 9D9D61CE-131E-4BC1-A513-0EFB40A3722B.jpegDAD07213-B2BE-42F5-95D0-A364E7B56EC7.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Gfs really went gang busters at the end of its run multiple days in the 20s and lows approaching single digits for many towards the end of the run .. probably terrible wind chills but also it helps with RATES !!! Check this bad boy out .. close to being a big boy but probably still decent with the rates being very good with this View attachment 101729View attachment 101730
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There really seems to be some noise in that 13th-17th timeframe. Now obviously these temperatures are probably overdone, high temperatures in the teens in the Piedmont is probably a once in 15-20 year event, but MJO progression seems to support the idea of cold and storms around that time
 
18z GFS continues to bang the 1/16 drum. This certainly isnt to be taken verbatim and yes its a op not ens. But when you see a big dog HECS being spit out, its a sign conditions will be ripe for the actual wx to cook something up. Whether its A SE bomb , slider or noreaster KU. Chances are something brews up around that time when u continously see shenanigans every run or every other run. See if these barks get inside day 10 by weeks end and Euro or Canadian start howling. To remind folks this is the 51 inch Charlotte run from the other day as well as a sub 950 bomb off NE coast another run
 
Overnight Euro for next Thursday: All I saw from overnight; Ops suport the weeklies statement from Ga wx. Looks like Coldest air of season will greet us by next monday into the entire week off all the Globals.
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.png
 
The good thing we got going for us now is the Cold. I believe within the next two Weeks most of this board will see winter weather especially if we can build a Taller WR to push these Storms further South. I think it could be setting up now For a big winter Storm across the SE.

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Broken024 said:
How is long range (>300 days) EPS looking? GEFS looks decent through end of run.
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Starts to retrograde stuff to the western US by the end of the run, imo we’re gonna have a shot with that look in the first panel I sent, I also see some hints of wavebreaking on the EPS gonna have to watch for another - NAO from wavebreaking, what’s discouraging is the -SCAND which isn’t great for a -NAO to form 47B12656-3594-44B7-BAB2-765C81EE9E9A.png538B6F29-79FE-44E7-9777-04D3F03BDEDF.png4CA6C5E8-F681-4818-AE26-AE9FF916259E.png857C9CD2-24E1-43D0-9055-F2F8B962D803.png
 
whatalife said:
Could be wrong and I do believe @SD stated a week or so ago that we might be able to sneak a -NAO in around the 20th. It fits well at the moment. SD and @Rain Cold have been on top of their game over the last couple of weeks.
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Don’t forget my pattern change call for January 3rd ??
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The GEFS has a -NAO back again in mid jan View attachment 101762
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You get this look and the percentages go through the roof to get a board wide event and yes that includes the I20 crowd. This is the type of pattern that can deliver some type of wintry weather all the way down the I10 corridor. IF we can keep this look through the month I would bet the house we see at least 1 major winter storm across a large portion of the southeast.
 
KyloG said:
As folks pointed out above, the modeled pattern looks solid for chances mid January. ?

View attachment 101763
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I like the fact that the ridge out west extends up north of AK and that it's not too far east so that it would virtually guarantee a cold but dry pattern. North Atlantic ridge isn't ideal, but nonetheless, we can work with this pattern. The right timing could actually yield a bona-fide widespread snowstorm, and not some slushy mixy winter storm wannabe, given the cold air potential.
 
The GEFS looks fantastic for the rest of the month. every teleconnection is perfect for us. the GEFS has a +PNA/-NAO/-EPO/-WPO/-AO through the entire run. EPS looks good in the pacific. the AO and NAO look to stay roughly neutral before going negative towards the end of the run but we keep a -WPO and the EPO stays neutral as well. That is about as good as you're going to get it around here.
 
Snownut said:
The good thing we got going for us now is the Cold. I believe within the next two Weeks most of this board will see cold rain especially if we can build a Taller WR to push these Storms further South. I think it could be setting up now For a big cold rain across the SE.

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Fied
 
Rain Cold said:
I like the fact that the ridge out west extends up north of AK and that it's not too far east so that it would virtually guarantee a cold but dry pattern. North Atlantic ridge isn't ideal, but nonetheless, we can work with this pattern. The right timing could actually yield a bona-fide widespread snowstorm, and not some slushy mixy winter storm wannabe, given the cold air potential.
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Agreed, I like the look of what we are seeing...fingers crossed the models are correct.
 
I hope you gentlemen stock up on coffee. It’s about to get active. Eastern Tennessee folks, you guys look great for possible two cyclonegenesis with measurable frozen precipitation. As pointed out from an earlier poster, the telleconctions are almost perfect. Not briefly, but leading into February as well.

Also, having a kelvin wave eating away a La Niña faster doesn’t hurt.


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