Pattern Januworry

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

NC special

 

[Tarheel1]

Beautiful! Amazing if we go back to this.

View attachment 109354

If only that High wasn't retreating
View attachment 109668

More to the NW, maybe can filter in?

 

[Stormdoc]

Just like this weekend storm there is a lot of energy in the flow that the models won’t come close to being right at this point. All we know is there will be a cold air mass and lots of diving waves.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 109669

Are there ever lots of mixing issues here ? Or is it just a snow rain set up usually cause you em either on the east side which has wound up warm air or the west side which has wound up cold air

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Crushed

 

[DopplerWx]

 

[Rain Cold]

Crushed View attachment 109670View attachment 109671

Going to wind up and come north?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Toeing a fine line here. Need a perfect phase. Too soon and it rubs the apps. Too late and it’s a whiff. Doable but lower than average probability. Energy is diving in the right spots though which is key. Signal still showing up. So everyone’s still in the game.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Going to wind up and come north?

Dunno. I thought that about yesterday’s system but at this point anything is possible
Oh your talking about the storm, looks like it is on the GFS

 

[DopplerWx]

Going to wind up and come north?

Yup

 

[wxdaniel]

I’m happy for now with this setup the 12z GFS output for the upstate. I would like to see more push from Iowa 1028mb a little stronger to try to avoid any kind of advection issues.


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[Flotown]

Man it's gonna be a fun week of model watching

 

[Parker]

That was a major improvement for us back to the west. Should be some good ensemble members coming up, but like jimmy said it’s a fine line, but when is it not.

My dad got covid and wasn’t able to make the NC trip last weekend, he asked when the next big snow was…..we may just have to go the smokies next weekend if it doesn’t work out here.

 

[HKY1994]

If we can keep the trend going we’re in good shape. Last nights 0z runs were terrible but 6z and 12z gfs have trended better each run. I like what I see for now.


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[bnathanb1982]

That’s my issue as well, if the TPV trends south or if our energy doesn’t tilt enough/doesn’t dig enough that’s a problem, we don’t have a -NAO and we’re totally relying on the PNA ridge to do work, the crappy NATL ridge isn’t doing much at all. But we have nailed timing the last 2 events at H5 lacking a -NAO View attachment 109634

Overall is that the same thing we should be worried about in NGA as well? With these setups yall folks in NC need it to bomb off the coast to get your big snow totals right? Sorry for the stupid questions in advance ?

 

[Rain Cold]

Yup
View attachment 109673

Going to be some big totals on this run. Not the same monster as we saw on previous days, though.

 

[deltadog03]

perfect track for many...just wish we had more overall cold air available initially.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Where’s a 50/50 low when you need it?

 

[KyloG]

The teeth-gnashing you hear is from the NE crew...?