Pattern Januworry

[wxdaniel]

perfect track for many...just wish we had more overall cold air available initially.

I was thinking the same. The High over Iowa will work just don’t feel comfortable. Would like to see more CAD.


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[Flotown]

The teeth-gnashing you hear is from the NE crew...?
View attachment 109677

West?

 

[Oconeexman]

Toeing a fine line here. Need a perfect phase. Too soon and it rubs the apps. Too late and it’s a whiff. Doable but lower than average probability. Energy is diving in the right spots though which is key. Signal still showing up. So everyone’s still in the game.

Agree this is absolute perfect timing or it's a no go on the gfs. Could easily turn into apps rubber or ots. Let's see what the euro has to say

 

[bingcrosbyb]

12z GFS takes it from 1010mb to 987mb in about 16-24 hours. Close to textbook bomb.

 

[Ollie Williams]

The 12z GFS was January 2000.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Overall is that the same thing we should be worried about in NGA as well? With these setups yall folks in NC need it to bomb off the coast to get your big snow totals right? Sorry for the stupid questions in advance ?

Yep, a earlier digging system/earlier tilt is better there as well !!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Would like to see that PV dig in a bit more so we can tap into that cold air supply. Plenty of time to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

 

[Faco Thomas]

perfect track for many...just wish we had more overall cold air available initially.

There's nothing stopping this system from being a Nor'easter or a inland/mountain cutter. No -NAO and the cold is marginal. I don't really like our chances as of now.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That AK ridge/weak rex/western ridge during the system tho ?

 

[TheBatman]

perfect track for many...just wish we had more overall cold air available initially.

Alway hear only if we had a gulf low in January. lol

 

[Arcc]

The 12z GFS was January 2000.
View attachment 109679

Just missed the big phase on the 12z GFS.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Just missed the big phase on the 12z GFS.

Not really, it's the same exact evolution.

 

[$alt]

Two back to backs on the GFS within a day or so of each. Either one has a chance.

 

[Rain Cold]

Would like to see that PV dig in a bit more so we can tap into that cold air supply. Plenty of time to pull a rabbit out of the hat.View attachment 109680

We had a nice digging arctic wave phasing in with those really big ones in previous runs. Nothing is really off the table at this point. Could end up being a whiff, a marginal slopfest, or a generational storm. It's not a bad thing to at least have the option on the table. Most times, it isn't.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- this is crazy we’re are trying to extend this pattern

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Don’t know where to put this since it kind of has to do with this storm.. if this storm makes a big impact and really gets that phase right it sets up a nearly great set up for the system right behind it but obviously our storm would have to set these conditions up .. so this is obviously fantasy land but I’m seeing signs of a double trouble sort of deal, storm wise, in this time frame (been seeing in GEFS members)

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

See evolution here.. as to what I was talking about in previous post

 

[accu35]

There’s life

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- this is crazy we’re are trying to extend this pattern View attachment 109683View attachment 109684

This looks like what happened to us in December with the warm pattern .. those big time patterns really do like to stay around past their due date

 

[Ollie Williams]

I really like this trend.