Pattern Januworry

[Oconeexman]

Comparing the 12z CMC / UKMet / GFS gives a feel for the goal posts with the wave handling

CMC has a stronger GOAK trough / BC ridge spike and the wave digging thru the Rockies splits with one piece tucking down into AZ. So the splitting wave packet leads to a less consolidated system over the SE

UKMet has a weaker GOAK trough / BC ridge spike and the wave diving down into the SE isn't as strong and consolidated

GFS also has a strong GOAK trough / BC ridge spike and it's in between the CMC and UKMet...it tries to tuck a piece of the wave into AZ, but then kicks it out and a the whole wave sharpens in the SE

Just want to stay in the ballpark at this time range with a super-ensemble of Op and Ensemble member runs

All in all there's a decent shot here for sure. Thanks grit!

 

[RollTide18]

I’ll definitely take these looks a week out, hoping the central Deep South can score, long overdue for a big storm here.

 

[Shaggy]

This is in no way a prediction or scientific but some of my best winters had cyclic repeating storms. I wanna say it was maybe 2009 we had a storm every 7-9 days and they all delivered

 

[Deleted member 1449]

This is in no way a prediction or scientific but some of my best winters had cyclic repeating storms. I wanna say it was maybe 2009 we had a storm every 7-9 days and they all delivered

February-March 1980 comes to mind, which of course culminated with a big dog.

 

[griteater]

February-March 1980 comes to mind, which of course culminated with a big dog.

Feb-Mar 1960
Jan 1966
Late Jan - Early Mar 2010

 

[Arcc]

Euro gonna miss the first phase.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

+PNA printer go brrrr

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Sheesh I still think we need to watch this little guy .. no one’s really looking at it but if a NW trend is what we usually get then this guy could be fun

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Lol View attachment 109728View attachment 109729View attachment 109730

Another classic situation we’re getting used to.. going to have to wait to get more observations of this wave .. data will be key with all of our storms originating from the NW diving down

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

 

[Arcc]

Whiff on the Euro.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Interestingly enough this isn’t the donocane system .. this is a bit before .. a threat that has gone under our radar

 

[Storm5]

Yeah the first system is a whiff on the euro now let's see what the main show does


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[Arcc]

Yeah the first system is a whiff on the euro now let's see what the main show does


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Both whiff.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Interestingly enough this isn’t the donocane system .. this is a bit before .. a threat that has gone under our radar

If this is the system that I'm thinking of, on the long-range NAM, it's a cold core low that was reminding some of February 2020 (which was a surprise little event in Georgia) and has a thread.

Honestly...while I'm kind of wiped out...it feels as if with that system, that's what it'd have to be if it produces from what I was seeing.

 

[griteater]

Euro looked a lot like the UKMet - just didn’t dig quite sharp enough. Has some light stuff Friday with low tracking well off the coast

 

[Stormdoc]

I will take too progressive and out east at this range all day long. As we’ve seen multiple times this winter, things seem to amp up towards go time.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Not mad. Some key ingredients in play

 

[snowvol]

Euro was a big dull nothing burger. Things seem like they are trying to avoid eastern Arkansas, west and middle tenn and western Kentucky. Action to our north,south and east. Nada to our west. Had one good snow here and too small ones. But we can’t seem to time right even when we have the cold. Everything is south and east. Heck the way things are trending storms will go from gulf to Caribbean and then the Atlantic. Lots of wasted cold in the western half of the south.