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Pattern Januworry

Bombs away, 30+" in RDU too
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SnowNiner said:
Just thinking that. Last chance, one more round before we cringe....and yield it back to Seattle. ?
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Come on Niner, you’re eating your first bite of Filet Mignon and already thinking about the SPAM sandwich on tap for tomorrow’s lunch

Dang, that deep diving northern stream would be fireworks going off
 
The Euro still has that wet supressed Miller A type of low for Tuesday. However, it still is poorly timed to give wintry to the SE due to there being no fresh cold air/surface high to its north. So, it still looks like just a cool rain, everyone’s favorite. Good news as this will give many some needed rain.
 
Also, the Euro looks like it is going to back off on having the coldest air of the season in the SE 1/26-8. This is no surprise as it was much colder than the GFS on the 0Z run:

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But will there now be some wintry precip in the SE instead on later maps in this run? Probably not.
 
La Ninas getting better and El Ninos getting worse??

Kind of seems that way, though I would still like to rock and roll with Mod or Strong Nino (just not the super strong Ninos like 15-16). Lot of the weak El Ninos post 1980 have been poor winters

Note the trend of AAM increasing during La Ninas.....and that Dec 2021 was highest AAM during a La Nina since Dec 1995 (Winter of 95-96) which was a 'wintry winter'. Dec 2021 AAM spike and MJO movement likely contributing factors to our more wintry pattern in Jan.

 
Brent said:
If it's gonna be this cold I'd really like everything to be covered in snow ? it kind of sucks without itView attachment 108861
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I get the feeling that our time will be coming eventually. Even forgetting February, last year was extremely active in terms of winter in this area. Already had 4 major winter storms and a seasonal total of a foot of snow. I feel like we will get one or two snow events next month, but we will see.
 
BufordWX said:
I get the feeling that our time will be coming eventually. Even forgetting February, last year was extremely active in terms of winter in this area. Already had 4 major winter storms and a seasonal total of a foot of snow. I feel like we will get one or two snow events next month, but we will see.
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I really hope so because right now I'm not happy with this winter. Tulsa has only had 7 winters in 120 years not produce at least an inch of snow. So far we're at 0.1". I never thought when I moved up here we'd have this problem but yeah so far...
 
After looking at the afternoon models, it seems the cold air will be sticking around in Canada while here in the southeast, we more or less stay on the edge of below average to slightly below average. I still don't see any well below average temps coming our way that last more than a day or two. At the same time, there appear to be alot of lp's or impulses moving west to east in the lower half of the US. Models have shows the deep gulf low moving northeast from time to time, but noting has really locked in. Having said that, it seems we should have a few more opportunities headed our way as no breakdown in the pattern appears imminent at this time.
TW
 
Brent said:
I really hope so because right now I'm not happy with this winter. Tulsa has only had 7 winters in 120 years not produce at least an inch of snow. So far we're at 0.1". I never thought when I moved up here we'd have this problem but yeah so far...
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You need to move to Havana then ... to save the rest of us ... :eek:
 
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