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Pattern Januworry

Rain Cold said:
I told you guys to enjoy it a few days ago while we were at peak weenieism. We're about to be at peak despair again in about a week or so. Then it will get better.
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I will be more pissed if we don't warm up in Feb. Snow is fun but I'm tired of being inside. Spring sport season starts soon so warmth is welcomed by me.
 
weatherfide said:
Euro is sending a clear message that the fun is over in 10 days. Dumps all the "reserved" fresh cold air into the southeast after next week's rain storm and reloads the trough out west. We torch going into February.

It was nice while it lasted.
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Euro sucks and GFS says different
 
Rain Cold said:
How do our MJO and CFS forecasts look?
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I haven’t seen the latest CFS, but it did well imo clueing us in on the vast pattern change from Dec to most of this month when the pattern change was still over 2 weeks away and thus out of the range of the 2 week models.

MJO: huge disagreement between the 0Z GEFS (stays inside circle) and 0Z EPS (goes into phase 6, a warm phase). That could be why the 0Z EPS was warmer than the 0Z GEFS late in the run:

FE982A20-63BE-43CF-84BF-065CB514F49A.gifDB922821-7483-4C0B-B62A-8EF9B0FAC987.gif

Others:

0EEDEE23-624A-470A-AA99-C86515075247.gif3E61EC6A-A222-40EA-82C3-291C86AF864A.gif
 
GaWx said:
That system looks to have only stale cold to work with as of now as mentioned above. The timing of fresh cold and gulf moisture is poor. Good luck with that working out for most other than maybe far northern areas of the SE and the favored areas for NW flow afterward. But as I said, there’s still time for the timing to change.
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IDK, stale cold air worked out for quite a bit if people in February 2015.

The only thing I see wrong with the setup next week is that joker is gonna pop if it looks as modeled.
 
Arcc said:
IDK, stale cold air worked out for quite a bit if people in February 2015.

The only thing I see wrong with the setup next week is that joker is gonna pop if it looks as modeled.
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Was there a wedge involved? There are always exceptions, regardless. I’m curious. Do you have some maps for this Feb 2015 event? What date are you referring to?
 
weatherfide said:
I was wrong. It appears Atlanta is going to be 10 degrees over the 20 year average. Ouch.
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This post makes absolutely no sense. ATL is at about a +1.75 through the 18th. That is mostly because of the first 2 days of the month. Temps are forecast to be consistently BN normal for the remainder of the forecast period. A -2.5 for the remainder of the month gets ATL back to around average for January. Really good chance the final 13 days of January average more than 2.5 below average making January a below average month. Especially with some colder nights in cold air masses. Bottom line, I don't know why someone would post something like this.
 
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