Pattern Januworry

[weather bubba]

Bombs away, 30+" in RDU too

The system we are going to be dealing with for the next 24-36 hours is just the appetizer before the main course comes in next weekend! I know my chances of winning the Mega Millions are better than seeing something like this but I like what I'm seeing for next Friday and Saturday.

 

[Loganville Winter]

The system we are going to be dealing with for the next 24-36 hours is just the appetizer before the main course comes in next weekend! I know my chances of winning the Mega Millions are better than seeing something like this but I like what I'm seeing for next Friday and Saturday.

It would be interesting to know how many times that has even been modeled before. Much less actually come to fruition. Amazing!

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Not to mention the heat dome that builds in. Luckily it's in fantasy land so it won't verify.

If we can get that look on the Florida coast mid Feb I'll be a happy person

 

[griteater]

Here is a loop of all Euro Weekly runs since mid-Dec for the period of Jan 23-30

 

[GaWx]

Here is a loop of all Euro Weekly runs since mid-Dec for the period of Jan 23-30

The CFS caught onto the cold late January much earlier than the Euro weeklies did.

 

[Oconeexman]

La Ninas getting better and El Ninos getting worse??

Kind of seems that way, though I would still like to rock and roll with Mod or Strong Nino (just not the super strong Ninos like 15-16). Lot of the weak El Ninos post 1980 have been poor winters

Note the trend of AAM increasing during La Ninas.....and that Dec 2021 was highest AAM during a La Nina since Dec 1995 (Winter of 95-96) which was a 'wintry winter'. Dec 2021 AAM spike and MJO movement likely contributing factors to our more wintry pattern in Jan.

I've heard it all now!

 

[crecre9]

18z GFS looks much different with the energy. Still need it to consolidate a few hundred miles west.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Come to Jimmy

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

 

[griteater]

^ Yeah the GFS was close to a bomb there.....same with the new CMC

 

[griteater]

Here was the CMC during the period of interest late next week.....can we make it 3 weeks in a row with a winter storm chance?

 

[griteater]

GFS, CMC, and Euro all very close tonight with deep diving bomb into the SE late next week.....one to watch

 

[Downeastnc]

GFS, CMC, and Euro all very close tonight with deep diving bomb into the SE late next week.....one to watch

Would be awesome to pull it off, snow three weeks in a row with a chance for a couple of nearly statewides, would be Mar 1960 all over again.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Two dusting a would make a half an inch right?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wow really coming down … this is going to be one great event that I think will overpreform it’s just accumulating so quickly and we’re going to be colder tomorrow. Probably will end up with a half an inch if I’m lucky

truly a table setter

 

[Zander98al]

Hmm euro a bit more optimistic with colder air in assocation with this wave. Is this finally Alabamas chance for some statewide snow? (Probably not) ?.

 

[BHS1975]

Hmm euro a bit more optimistic with colder air in assocation with this wave. Is this finally Alabamas chance for some statewide snow? (Probably not) .View attachment 109062

Got a lot of work to do still on the temps even here. The weekend bomb is the one to watch.


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[cyclogent]

the boundary layer is gonna be tough to overcome for the Tuesday system outside of the higher elevations.
probably some onset sleet though for many. otherwise, meh.

 

[WxGSO]

I still think we'll have a couple more threats to track during the coming weeks. Nothing set in stone yet as but when you have digging cold air and energy flying around to the south you have be on the lookout.

 

[Storm5]

Man there are some brutal cold blasts showing in the long range . Still think we have one or two more board wide threats before February 10th


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