Pattern Januworry

[WxGSO]

I'm pretty confident we'll squeeze out another storm or two. Let's hope it's a more snow event for the entire region. I DO think the pattern will break down in early to mid Feb, but who knows.

 

[Chandler]

Oh man this time frame is looking legit View attachment 105642View attachment 105643View attachment 105644

Surface reminds me of feb 2014 with back to back systems

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 105657
This is what this weekend’s storm looked like a week out. I know it’s been said over and over again, but we probably want anything showing up in the models right now to be suppressed to account for any potential amping/northwest trend.

See that HP placement? All in.

 

[pcbjr]

Simply FWIW ...

 

[pcbjr]

... and IMHO ... here's the driver ...

 

[Broken024]

GEFS is basically a parade of winter storms from hour 150 on. Can't recall anything looking like that before.

 

[Tarheel1]

Get these two together , and it’s party time!

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Arcc]

We may be seriously crying for mercy.

 

[Chazwin]

I said this earlier, but look at the dates… Saturday 1/22 and Monday 1/24… same as January 2000

 

[TheBatman]

 

[Mr. Golf]

I think the only way to avoid February being warm is to keep mjo out of 4-6 phases, if that's possible.

 

[Metwannabe]

I think the only way to avoid February being warm is to keep mjo out of 4-6 phases, if that's possible.

This is the January thread, not worried about February yet

 

[Rain Cold]

We may be seriously crying for mercy.

Lol no we won't.

One thing I've noticed at or near the end of the latest GFS runs is the western ridge apex rolling over forward, allowing troughing back off the NW coast. That’s not ideal. It would result in a more zonal flow, particularly with no good -NAO. You see hints of it here:



But fortunately, it goes to this, which is good. Nice -AO showing up, maybe even good trends near Greenland.



Not a bad look to the LR. It's particularly satisfying to see this in light of the multitude of La Nina-based winter forecasts that had virtually no winter in the east. Hopefully, we continue to see this going forward, along with a period of legitimate help in the NAO space.

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Not only did DFW tie the record high of 79*F today (despite cirrostratus taking over during the afternoon), but now we're at average for the month.

 

[deltadog03]

I do need some sierras snow in the next 2.5 weeks.

 

[Chandler]

Still there on the GFS

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This looks ideal let’s keep this look until hour 100

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well at least it looks like cold air isn’t much of a problem, at the sfc especially

 

[Arcc]

Lol no we won't.

One thing I've noticed at or near the end of the latest GFS runs is the western ridge apex rolling over forward, allowing troughing back off the NW coast. That’s not ideal. It would result in a more zonal flow, particularly with no good -NAO. You see hints of it here:

View attachment 105708

But fortunately, it goes to this, which is good. Nice -AO showing up, maybe even good trends near Greenland.

View attachment 105709

Not a bad look to the LR. It's particularly satisfying to see this in light of the multitude of La Nina-based winter forecasts that had virtually no winter in the east. Hopefully, we continue to see this going forward, along with a period of legitimate help in the NAO space.

I’ll definitely be crying for mercy if we average 45/25 over the next month. That is a lot of firewood burned.