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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
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I still think the GEFS better, some members did show some solutions similar to the euro earlier so I bet more members might improve. 
Stormlover
Member
That's sleet
Imo this is trending to the EPS 
In fact the GEFS looks way better then the OP GFS 
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The king is still the king at a six day lead time at the 500MB level.
GEFS slowly starting to make things interesting 
HurricaneSolomon
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I don’t know about everyone here but it is very very rare that WRAL shows something like this when it’s 6 to 7 days out. Could be something to this?
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GSP doesn’t offer much detail in their discussion, but they have added a chance of rain/snow to my forecast grid on Saturday night and Sunday
I don’t know about everyone here but it is very very rare that WRAL shows something like this when it’s 6 to 7 days out. Could be something to this?
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SimeonNC
Member
GSP added a 30% chances of snow showers for me lol.
This is the definition of a cold active pattern, you have some southern stream energy in the SW/northern Mexico, pacific energy entering the NW, and a strong northern stream trough over the eastern US
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Where's winter?
Oh boy.
Jessy89
Member
Wyff just showed the euro model for this weekend and said there watching for a winter storm this weekend In upstate and mountains
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Gotta get those members with that lakes low out of here
As many of you know, I've been keeping track of wintery models in the LR with the archive thread. I decided to visually graph out which seasons were the best as far as fantasy snow with Python. As I've mentioned earlier, this year has been the least snowy season on the models; mainly due to the warmth in December. However, we have just surpassed 2019-2020 and are in the #2 spot.
packfan98
Moderator
Cool graphics. How are you compiling the data? Operational runs? GFS Euro?
Thanks, I just went to the archive thread and saved the days I posted something there. The criteria as to what runs go in the thread are slightly more subjective. I really only post globals models in the long term. I stop tracking them when we start seeing consistent NAM/HRRR/GFS runs because it can get cluttered.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
I know this is out there and there are opportunities before this, but I love this cold that keeps showing up. Good for us south of 85 hopefully.
Cary_Snow95
Member
That on a smoothed mean is quite impressive
It’s intriguing seeing a subtropical cyclone over the southwest pacific. If this happens, it will be the first time in history.
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NEGaweather
Member
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18z Euro looked colder and had a slightly stronger high in Canada, but the energy in the western US looked closer to separating, as we seen from the 12z, we need the energy to be connected, it’s only gonna be in the western US in 84-90 hours
18z ensembles should have a look at it too right?
Hmmm NAM looked interesting at the end .. I think the coast could maybe see a shot at something if there’s good trends
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Prepare to be NAMed
The 18z EPS looks a little worse due to less of a cold press due to the TPV moving north quicker, on to the 00z
From Tim Buckley:
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By 18z on Saturday, the euro control says it’s begun snowing almost to Hickory.
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I feel like it was in the model noise range. Control looked like it was gonna be a hit.
Not that it necessarily has to matter in this situation, but the control has less resolution and often shows snow that doesn't pan out. I like the pattern though, and I think it's more likely to be right this time than in other cases.
Seriously, no offense to anyone on here but why do the Control runs keep getting pulled out? I know they are really fun to look at sometimes, but I have never seen a single snowy Control run verify. I would genuinely like to know if there is some benefit to what they show versus the other Ensemble members.
The control and euro basically do the same thing 95% of the time, until you get out to day 7-10+, most of the time the control snow maps you see are far out which is why they never verify, however the control inside of hour 180 typically is alike the euro, just with lower res
The Control essentially is the Euro at a lower resolution run through 360, with the correct initial conditions. It's best to think of it as an ensemble member. They then tweak the initial conditions 50 times and rerun. So you have a 51 member ensemble suite. That's the way i understand it.
bigstick10
Member
No, anyone knows this track is way to far North to bring anything from ATL, CLT TO RAH.
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NCSNOW
Member
Time for Germans to regain some of there nostalgia from a couple of winters ago and get on board the foreign model train like the euro family an ukmet for this weekend.