Pattern Januworry

[Mr. Golf]

Didn't say you weren't but don't post winter is over and not expect to get questioned. If I posted winter cancel or I think Jan will be snowy or I think Feb will be cold I'd expect to get questioned

I agree SD. Perhaps we can get shifts that will lead to extended cold or a full shift for durable cold. Guess we shall see

 

[Mr. Golf]

If you look at a good number of ninas they all feature big poleward ridge pushes and undercutting in the last week of Dec or the first half of January. You can draw your own conclusions from there but what we are seeing isn't that abnormal and somewhat expected. I'm not even saying it's going to get nut freezing cold or feet of snow buy Holy moly canceling winter before January based on an 18z gfs run is wild

It wasn't 18zgfs lol. It's just alot of people mentioning that same stuff I said with an unfavorable pattern after mid January with perhaps it lasting rest of winter.

 

[NCSNOW]

I don’t care how hard it snows but 61 soil temps sucks we will lose up to 4”snowfall and be muddy mess underneath and very wet roads. We need a cold blast or two for sure we can still lower it down…overnight temps have been 30+ degrees above normal here!

It want take 24 hrs to knock those down

 

[WeatherNC]

We will have snowpack from central MO, IA, IL in to the northern Plains and really back through the west to work with in to the first few weeks of January, it will likely spread east.

 

[Rain Cold]

It wasn't 18zgfs lol. It's just alot of people mentioning that same stuff I said with an unfavorable pattern after mid January with perhaps it lasting rest of winter.

You have to remember that there are no absolutes. People are smart and can articulate probabilities based on past data, but the atmosphere on January 30th really doesn't care very much what happened on January 30th 1945. There is a lot of winter left.

 

[Broken024]

I've seen worse. Not bad for 5 day average for early January.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

A lot of GEFS members were close with a winter event also with the next big arctic front after this storm on Sunday

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I really honestly liked the look from last run much more but ig it’s still aight

 

[Tarheel1]

I agree SD. Perhaps we can get shifts that will lead to extended cold or a full shift for durable cold. Guess we shall see

It’s the South, you might get a solid week of wall to wall cold, once every 10 years

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Wow. Happy Hour deterministic was such a train wreck in the long-range it even had a subtropical storm crossing S Florida.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I really honestly liked the look from last run much more but ig it’s still aight View attachment 100068View attachment 100069

Improved even more for long long range

 

[BullCityWx]

A lot of GEFS members were close with a winter event also with the next big arctic front after this storm on Sunday

Noticed the same thing

 

[Tarheel1]

 

[Avalanche]

Wow. Happy Hour deterministic was such a train wreck in the long-range it even had a subtropical storm crossing S Florida.

I alluded to that in the tropical thread.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

This is why we need this in NAM and hi res model range I think under any heavy band it could break that barrier and put down a paste job for someone .. novelty for most but I assume if the dynamics are enough it would be some heavy snow wherever they develop

 

[iGRXY]

Canceling winter on December 30th is hilarious. When y’all jump off the cliff you really take it head first lol

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

Problem ?

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

 

[Snowfan]

View attachment 100083Problem ?

Back to square one.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 100083Problem ?

Trying to look at the MJO especially the extended is about worth as much as a fart in church! Will be different tomorrow and then the next day and the next