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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

Oops, my bad! Because we had just been talking MJO, I somehow thought you were asking for it. Sorry. I don't know where to find SOI forecasts. I used to try to forecast the SOI trend using the Euro sfc pressure maps, but have't lately.
Thanks - I have a SOI link but it is dead right now
I cannot unsee that. Not at all. Ever. I wonder what the other ensembles show and what caused that 3 feet.
I'm not going to import but American SE has a map posted even juicer than that.
 
I just saw that map and I have no words at all. If even half of that were to work out I'd be fine again for about 2-3 years. Doesn't mean I wouldn't still track but I'd be OK after that if I saw nothing.
 
as Shane pointed out. those ensemble members are keying the same energy the euro control did . BUT alot of that is ice and not snow

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as Shane pointed out. those ensemble members are keying the same energy the euro control did . BUT alot of that is ice and not snow

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Well, the GFS needs to stop fooling everyone because at the bottom it says accumulated snowfall. That is deceiving.
 
Well, the GFS needs to stop fooling everyone because at the bottom it says accumulated snowfall. That is deceiving.
. we know from years past that those maps count all frozen as snow . So they should always always always be taken with a grain of salt so should the fact it's out in two week land

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If its an icy look, historic ice storms like those are close to once a decade type things. so yeah it's probably going to be gone the next run lol.
 
Slight northward shift of shield of moisture in the Gulf on 0z GFS than 18z GFS.

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This GFS run will be worse than 12z but slightly better than the 18z. The gulf shortwave looks healthier but it's not as healthy as it has been depicted before.
 
Looking more juicy with the northern disturbance than 18z GFS.

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Already more light snow coverage over Tennessee on Sunday. But it's not going to show a good run for Alabama/Georgia/North Carolina outside mountains/South Carolina.
 
Not a bad run for the southern Apps. It's big because they've not seen as much snow as they usually do even in winters in which most of the south don't see any snow.
 
Absolutely hate that the pacific sucks. After that massive storm crosses upper North America starting from out of the Pacific, instead of a trough on either side, there's just a flat flow.
 
Absolutely hate that the pacific sucks. After that massive storm crosses upper North America starting from out of the Pacific, instead of a trough on either side, there's just a flat flow.
it's not that bad just a few days already changes by day 8

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When do major storms usually pop up on models? If I recall, the big storms usually don't really start showing until about 5 days out historically. Am I mistaken?


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I thought at 222 that disturbance in the plains might dive and help change the pattern back, but it's following the flow, it's going to take a big storm for another pattern change...may happen but the GFS won't pick it up for a while. I think beyond February 5th will turn out to be very interesting for at least the upper south.
 
I thought that big cutter in what I'd now call fantasy land would do it to change the pattern but the pattern just stays in what I'd call a flat flow after that.
 
Looking like some flurries for most who see moisture, not quite sure we will end up with more than that. These situations never work out, especially outside of the mountains and TN.
 
I honestly call BS on the GFS long range, granted I'm not a met so I may be missing something, but you're telling me that there's going to be a big storm and no pattern change?
 
I honestly call BS on the GFS long range, granted I'm not a met so I may be missing something, but you're telling me that there's going to be a big storm and no pattern change?
technically the pattern does change , a few times actually. problem is its very progressive .

the good news is the epo is going to empty the cold into the US in the first half of February . Signs of NAO help as well ( not holding my breath ) but as we have said before we don't need the nao to score

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We still have a quite a ways to go. I still believe that clipper will come down sooner while the trough is digging down. I think the clipper should come down a few days or so after that cold front that is going to bring us rain showers Wed. into Thursday. I'm still skeptical at this point for the last several days of this month into Feburary because of that disturbance hanging out over Baja California. Something has to help kick it out. It just hangs there way too long. This also makes me believe at this point that the clipper will come down sooner to grab a hold of that disturbance and kick it out.

This is what's holding me back on to say official thoughts on what I think may occur. The four biggest things that has me concerned is the ridge out in the Atlantic, the low poping up out in the Atlantic (on 0z CMC), the clipper coming down and that disturbance hanging out over Baja California. There are several variables here at play that can change things very dramatically.

Edit: make that 5 variables, including the northern stream.



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Is the euro broken?
Nah, nothing exciting though! 3-4 day cool down, Fri-Tues, then warm up till end of the run! And shocker, no clipper
 
The EURO is not what it used to be before their "upgrade" several years ago. Hard to believe they fixed it (according to them) by actually breaking it, go figure
 
I would not yet give up on the clipper Sunday night, Euro last night came in much more amplified and west with the trough, showing a trace of snow in some areas. It basically flipped solutions with the GFS, which is now east and dry! LoL. But maybe the Euro is starting to catch on, and the GFS is back to its northern stream bias. I would put the odds on nothing happening, but the players are still close enough to not write it off.
 
I would not yet give up on the clipper Sunday night, Euro last night came in much more amplified and west with the trough, showing a trace of snow in some areas. It basically flipped solutions with the GFS, which is now east and dry! LoL. But maybe the Euro is starting to catch on, and the GFS is back to its northern stream bias. I would put the odds on nothing happening, but the players are still close enough to not write it off.
I just saw the Euro....works for me
 
Yep would work for me too SD, after the last fiasco we would both take a few extra flakes we were "denied".
 
I just saw the Euro....works for me
Me too.... I'll take the dusting the Euro is throwing us. Seen this too many times, GFS shows something, Euro nothing then GFS goes away and Euro keeps hope alive Lol.... meet in the middle and we will be up squinting at street/yard lights to see a few flakes fly.
 
from huntsville
Sunday Night
A slight chance of rain between 7pm and 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday
A 20 percent chance of snow.
 
Well. This 12z GFS run could be interesting for some.
 
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