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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

Fab Feb. Part 6, the Final Blood is approaching. I think many will be happy in that month.

I really wanted something board-wide for the Jan 27th- Feb 02nd to prosper, but it's looking bleak now.

Of course Storm5 is hyped.. and when I make calls, I am usually wrong.. so pick a poison. :)
 
Shawn said:
Fab Feb. Part 6, the Final Blood is approaching. I think many will be happy in that month.

I really wanted something board-wide for the Jan 27th- Feb 02nd to prosper, but it's looking bleak now.

Of course Storm5 is hyped.. and when I make calls, I am usually wrong.. so pick a poison. :)
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I was just talking about the gfs op. it's a cold pattern overall. And let's all get real anything post day 5 of the gfs is wrong . interested in the gfs ensembles that are running now

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I like the positioning of the trough at 156 on the GEFS (on the map I'm seeing). It's not perfect but it's good enough. Just need a storm and yeah....no. Not then.
 
00z gefs is active enough to keep me interested in the day 7-10 period. also Cleary shows its the best shot over the next 10 days

all in for E4
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Here's the snow maps for Tennessee. Is this run out on its own or does northern Tennessee really stand a chance at a decent snow this weekend? This is the Second run today that has shown a few inches by Monday.

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Quiet morning. 6Z GFS more amplified with trough and more digging of clipper gives parts of NC a light snow. I know this may not impact most posters, but central to eastern NC can get a decent event with this set up on occasion. Other areas could get involved, particularly northeast Georgia into northern SC if it dives a little more SW in order for a lee side meso low to form, seen it a few times.
 
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Oh, of course Tennessee is obviously in the game here too. Just need to squeeze out a good 0.2-0.3 to have something, but of course surface and boundary layers clearly could screw it up, as usual
 
Here are my morning thoughts after going over some modeling. The way things are looking like, there will be a light event coming from the northern stream. Then as that low pops up, I think we will start to see more moisture involvement because of that moisture down in the Gulf. Plus, there is a HP way out in the Atlantic. This will also help push that moisture into the low. Both of these images is from the 0z GFS Para.

I circled in red of where area's will most likely see the best snows. (I circled too far south in GA but you get the point)

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Red arrow represents wind coming from HP.
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Snowdoc said:
Quiet morning. 6Z GFS more amplified with trough and more digging of clipper gives parts of NC a light snow. I know this may not impact most posters, but central to eastern NC can get a decent event with this set up on occasion. Other areas could get involved, particularly northeast Georgia into northern SC if it dives a little more SW in order for a lee side meso low to form, seen it a few times.
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This is very close to being something nice for us we just need it to close off or dig a little more SW....
 
Also, on the 06z GFS, starting at 144 and further...that's how it should look like when the low is still over land gaining more and more moisture as the low moves towards the Atlantic. I wish the low was showing up stronger. The mb it's showing now isn't that strong. It needs to be like a 998 or even a low 1000mb low. I don't think we're going to see a stronger low than that cause there isn't any blocking to amplify the low.

Edit: There is some blocking out in the Atlantic, this should amplify the low some but not by all that much.

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It's not looking like that energy will be kicked out. The 0z Euro EPS has that energy dissipating over the Gulf. Something could come along and pull it out but something will have to dramatically change for that to happen. Even if it did get kicked out it would probably end up being a rain event for most, not unless we still have some cold air left and if it turns out to be a ULL. I like that energy coming down from the northern stream. Euro has some strong vorticity. Can't wait for the 12z GFS, hopefully it will come in line to what I'm thinking.

Strong vorticity from the northern stream while the energy hangs out over Baja California. Of course, if that energy got kicked out, it would turn out as a new ball park for us here.

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It appears that there is so much energy flying around all over the place, models are going to struggle with the placement and timing over the next couple of weeks no doubt.
 
SD said:
This is very close to being something nice for us we just need it to close off or dig a little more SW....
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Yep best case scenario is the January 2009 clipper that over performed here. Wishful thinking probably but the 2 5H looks appear similar
 
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