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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

The GFS is getting there run by run. See where the 12z GFS has the low at 150? The low should be more closer to the Carolina coast line(s). The reason why I think this is because of the SW flow down in the Gulf and the clipper will phase with the SW just on the coast, or just off of the coast of the Carolina's. At that point, there will be more moisture to deal with than just the moisture with the clipper it self.

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The late week has my attention for at least the Carolinas. Could be nothing but it also might be a decent event.
 
Just a little more
gem_z500_vort_us_26.png
 
I'm basing this off of the 850 temps. I drew where the low should be when the clipper phases up with the WSW flow. Normally lows like to be on that boarder of colder and warmer temps. The low should be any where 50-100 miles off shore some where off of the Carolina's. Give or take.
1ed52d9d416666ee45bcc43ba8b85e49.jpg


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surprisingly enough the 12z gfs ensembles are not very exciting . there are a few that give a little hope . but no big shift from previous runs to really give anything legs to stand on

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there are a few members that look pretty good. they are later overall around day 7

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accu35 said:
Really would love to see the GOM moisture creep up little more like it has been, to supply more for our clipper. Very good run on that time frme, ready for other models to see if they agree.
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If the clipper interacts with the Gulf too much, it can pull up warmer temps too. I wouldn't want to see that.

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clippers never work around here. if your in alabama , mississippi hell even georgia we want this thing to phase. the further east you go the more you have to worry about temps with WAA. but it's pretty simple , we need a phase

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Storm5 said:
clippers never work around here. if your in alabama , mississippi we want this thing to phase. it's pretty simple

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Clippers never work around here ever either. South of the mountains, maybe some flurries and that's it. The mountains shred the moisture and the dry air at play. We definitely want to see a phase.

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day 5-6 is the euros wheelhouse with phases . would be nice to see improvement on the euro in a few

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It could phase further SW/WSW than what I'm thinking. It does have the potential. If that happens, this will mean more snow for GA, northern AL, western NC and eastern TN. It depends on that ridge out in the Atlantic. If it bulges further north and west there definitely could be a phase more sooner and more to the SW/WSW. If you look at the 12z GFS, starting at 144 you can see the low shift to the SE a bit on the next frame which makes me believe that there could be a phase sooner and further SW/WSW.

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UKMET 500vort maps would be nice about now.

But nothing amazing on most GEFS members, so scrap!
 
Yeah, wish we had longer-range vort maps.
 
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