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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

Likely doesn't cut it this run, but a slight step to more consolidated energy, it's just too little too late.
Keeping an eye on it since we likely don't want another snow-jam.

Of course some light flurry activity breaking out for parts of NC/TN.
 
I'm making a hand drawn map on a solution. Good snows coming for some! I'm going with the Euro EPS and a blend of GFS and maybe some CMC modeling depending on how that model handles of what I think of the realistic solution.

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12z cmc is further west with the trough
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Here is my hand drawn map, some will see good snows, some will see none at all and some will see flurries. I'm going with the Euro EPS, it's showing the low closer to the coast before heading out to sea. I tweaked on where the low should be and the track of low (approximately). During this period, the NAO is slightly negative so that supports the idea of track of low. Keep in mind that my idea could change. The low could be further out to sea and most will just see flurries and some will see nothing at all.

If the low comes about further south and west, the area of best snows will shift to the south and west as well. At this time, I don't think that the low will come about further south and west because the ridge out in the Atlantic is further east on the Euro EPS. If that ridge was further north and west, the low could come about further south and west. The moisture is limited, but ample moisture is showing up out in the Atlantic.
The 850 temps are cold enough to support good snow growth. The Euro EPS is showing -10c (14F) and the 12z GFS 850mb temp anomalies are showing that as well. We'll see what the afternoon Euro runs show.

If you're in that darker blue, the chance there is greater of seeing snow than the lighter blue. This is not a snowfall accumulation map, just showing of where the chances of snow will be. Dark blue= 40% chance at seeing snow, Lighter blue=10-20% chance at seeing snow.

snowfall_map.jpg
 
Not so fast... I counted a few members that gave Shane and I some flurries and the mean is a dusting. Eternal optimist here :D
 
I don't ever remember a January where I was able open the Windows so much. Another beautiful spring like January day
 
Euro wants no clipper action!
 
I don't think we should lock this thread quite yet. I just have that instinct feeling something is going to show up at the last minute.

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Yep this one doesn't look great. The euro does have me right on the edge of getting an inch of snow. The way this winter has gone I will consider that a huge victory if it pans out.
 
NWS Raleigh is keeping the possibility of flurries on the table:

The continental flow will keep us dry for much of the period but
there is some question about Sunday night when a developing low off
of the east coast interacts with an upper level wave to our
northwest. The end result could be enough moisture to produce a few
flurries or brief snow showers across the northern tier of the
forecast area Sunday night into early Monday morning. QPF values are
very low at this time so no accumulation is expected. Temperature
profiles and partial thicknesses look cold enough at this time to
support snow but if precipitation were to occur across the southern
tier at all it could present as flurries or sprinkles. Again, very
minimal no impact event if it occurs at all.
 
Are you sure y'all were looking at the right Euro model? There still is a clipper with flurries/snow showers coming down on the 12z Euro.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Are you sure y'all were looking at the right Euro model? There still is a clipper with flurries/snow showers coming down on the 12z Euro.

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Click to expand...

Yeah, but it's light and boring.
 
metwannabe said:
And that should do it, Euro says...

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Click to expand...
Better yet, hit the lights on winter! Nothing is looking good, unless you like heat ! Worst winter in along time! Or since 2012! :(
 
packfan98 said:
NWS Raleigh is keeping the possibility of flurries on the table:

The continental flow will keep us dry for much of the period but
there is some question about Sunday night when a developing low off
of the east coast interacts with an upper level wave to our
northwest. The end result could be enough moisture to produce a few
flurries or brief snow showers across the northern tier of the
forecast area Sunday night into early Monday morning. QPF values are
very low at this time so no accumulation is expected. Temperature
profiles and partial thicknesses look cold enough at this time to
support snow but if precipitation were to occur across the southern
tier at all it could present as flurries or sprinkles. Again, very
minimal no impact event if it occurs at all.
Click to expand...
I never completely give up on these things even if it's just the slightest possibility of seeing a flake or two, it's almost like a sickness.
 
metwannabe said:
I never completely give up on these things even if it's just the slightest possibility of seeing a flake or two, it's almost like a sickness.
Click to expand...
Same for me. I'll strain my eyes to look for a flake. I like counting up the number of calendar days that I see flakes for the winter. This year...2. Some years have been 6-7 with the nickel and dime events.
 
metwannabe said:
I never completely give up on these things even if it's just the slightest possibility of seeing a flake or two, it's almost like a sickness.
Click to expand...
Yeah, we are all sick to some degree. However, I am with you concerning watching a potential system until it is obviously not going to materialize. That's just how most of our brains work.
 
There's still hope ! This is what FFC had to say this afternoon in regards to Sunday evening and night:

Temps
during the latter portion of the evening into the early overnight
hours will be supportive of a light rain/snow mix across north
Georgia (north of metro ATL into the mountains) and all snow highest
elevations.
 
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