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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

pcbjr said:
No crystal ball here, but it's seemed since October Feb would be the month. Some maps I looked at early this morning (that I cannot share or post due to stringent subscription restrictions) look juicy. I'm personally all in for Feb (despite what my plum tree is telling me LOL) - so buckle up and we'll see :cool:
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Yep, JB said all along it would be a backend winter in the east!! I like what he's saying for Feb-March.... Don't mean he's going to be right!!! Euro weeklies he's not in total agreement says 11-18 is in disagreement with him. lol, he says GEFS is going to beat it, said 12z Euro went toward it....
A little comment from JB,

This is about as good of an ensemble run at 500 mb and 850 mb this far out. The time uncertainty limits what a model can see, but I see no reason to rout out the cold in Canada now, as the opposite of the western trough pattern that we have seen is a hallmark of this run, with a ridge in the West. The markers we have set up for the February/March idea have been reached, and we have maintained all along that this winter would be strongest in the East later in the winter. The coldest air is now on our side of the pole overall and I believe the worst of winter is yet to come from the Mississippi eastward, with Texas still a battleground and the northern Plains likely cold.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The GFS after 300 hours is sometimes just the funny farm anyway. It can pick up ideas, but you can't take it as ground truth.

And early February weirdly isn't good history wise. It's the second week and beyond that is. So we're most likely in wait mode again for about 10 days.
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Well, as long as you don't go too far beyond. I don't think the last week of Feb is that great climatologically in ATL. From what Larry has said, it seems like there's a small period in Feb that is favored per climo, which is the February 8-18 period.
 
Granted I'm not a met so my eyes are untrained...but what I am seeing on the 500 MB maps tell me there's very little chance of even rain for a while after the pattern chance.
 
pcbjr said:
LR very detailed maps that strongly suggest a lot of entrenched SE cold with moisture to work with after about the 5th through the near end of Feb with relaxation after that; good Pac ridge positioned nicely and some occasional blocking. But as I said - we'll see ... Didn't mean to start a ruckus - I can go read American if I need that gut wrench ...
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Not now , the sites down! The coldest I get this coming " cold pattern change" this weekend is 29 bone chilling degrees! Then back to 65 by Tuesday according to Glenn Burns! :( he only seems to show warm models and outlooks!? Kind of the antithesis of JB!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not now , the sites down! The coldest I get this coming " cold pattern change" this weekend is 29 bone chilling degrees! Then back to 65 by Tuesday according to Glenn Burns! :( he only seems to show warm models and outlooks!? Kind of the antithesis of JB!
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65 degrees next Tues ? NWS is showing 48 for here.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not now , the sites down! The coldest I get this coming " cold pattern change" this weekend is 29 bone chilling degrees! Then back to 65 by Tuesday according to Glenn Burns! :( he only seems to show warm models and outlooks!? Kind of the antithesis of JB!
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It's the local news weather models. I don't pay attention to them. Closest to that temperature coming up is tomorrow!
 
pcbjr said:
No crystal ball here, but it's seemed since October Feb would be the month. Some maps I looked at early this morning (that I cannot share or post due to stringent subscription restrictions) look juicy. I'm personally all in for Feb (despite what my plum tree is telling me LOL) - so buckle up and we'll see :cool:
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I use Accuweather pro and there are some model maps that I can't show. I have been showing some, but I think I'll quit posting them and just describe instead along with some hand drawn maps.

Edit: Accuweather allows me to share some modeling maps but not every thing.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
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pcbjr said:
It's 18Z - Do not despair. That run is consistently like an Uncle, twice removed, who shows up at Thanksgiving, has a couple too many drinks, tells some corny jokes that makes no sense to anyone but him, and he still gets "respect" - until he leaves the room when laughter breaks out (and not at his jokes, mind you).

Inside of 4 days if the 18Z is following the OZ and 12Z, then the "Uncle" needs to be listened to. If. however, Uncle 18Z is telling jokes no one else in the family can figure out - let him leave the room and then laugh!

JMHO
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Phil,
You're also describing what Joe Bastardi years ago nicknamed the Canadian, the "Crazy Uncle"
pcbjr said:
Because they come from a private source and that is my deal with them - it's a professional courtesy and a word of honor I would never violate.
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I totally respect you for that not posting the actual maps. I don't know if you're upset, but you're too good of a poster to be driven away and you seem well-liked here by many. Regarding the WxBell stuff that is posted, my understanding is that Ryan has no problem with posting some of that stuff if I recall correctly. I think he has been asked but I could be mistaken. But describing stuff is more than enough if you'd prefer not to post imo and I realize it may not be WxBell. I've had MDA over the years and have limited it to describing what certain maps say (like the Euro weeklies) because they don't want maps to be posted too soon after they're released. I totally respect that request.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
I use Accuweather pro and there are some model maps that I can't show. I have been showing some, but I think I'll quit posting them and just describe instead along with some hand drawn maps.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
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Like I said - I did not want to start a ruckus. My sincere apologies. I'm an attorney. I deal with some clients. They are very, very deep into weather on levels we here don't deal with and they are certainly not "commercial" like WxBell or Accu; they are nice enough to give me access but I cannot copy or quote - I can summarize generally, but I won't any more (even though what I saw this AM early was sooooo sweet and in my too good haste wanted to share in a friendly "don't get down" fashion, folks) since it seems to cause disruption - something I refuse to be the cause of in any manner or form on this fresh and vibrant board.

Enough said by me and now back to our regularly scheduled 18Z GFS funny run ....
 
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I don't see why everyone is so down. So what we might whiff next week, it happens. I would be much more concerned if the models had the SE ridge coming back. I really like that epo ridge coming and the potential for some of the real cold that's locked in Siberia to make its way back to our side of the globe. It'll be ok it's only Jan 24th and quite a few people have seen wintry weather and some more than average. If we get to Feb 24 and nothing has happened perhaps we hit the panic button. There are quite a few years that were analogs to this one that brought the really good stuff in Feb/March, the folks that say they like Feb/March aren't totally crazy

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BIG FROSTY said:
Yep, JB said all along it would be a backend winter in the east!! I like what he's saying for Feb-March.... Don't mean he's going to be right!!! Euro weeklies he's not in total agreement says 11-18 is in disagreement with him. lol, he says GEFS is going to beat it, said 12z Euro went toward it....
A little comment from JB,

This is about as good of an ensemble run at 500 mb and 850 mb this far out. The time uncertainty limits what a model can see, but I see no reason to rout out the cold in Canada now, as the opposite of the western trough pattern that we have seen is a hallmark of this run, with a ridge in the West. The markers we have set up for the February/March idea have been reached, and we have maintained all along that this winter would be strongest in the East later in the winter. The coldest air is now on our side of the pole overall and I believe the worst of winter is yet to come from the Mississippi eastward, with Texas still a battleground and the northern Plains likely cold.
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Lol @ JB!! 3 words for us:" December to remember"
 
pcbjr said:
Like I said - I did not want to start a ruckus. My sincere apologies. I'm an attorney. I deal with some clients. They are very, very deep into weather on levels we here don't deal with and they are certainly not "commercial" like WxBell or Accu; they are nice enough to give me access but I cannot copy or quote - I can summarize generally, but I won't any more since it seems to cause disruption - something I refuse to be the cause of in any manner or form on this fresh and vibrant board.

Enough said by me and now back to our regularly scheduled 18Z GFS funny run ....
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You wasn't causing a ruckus, not at all. We're here for discussions. But, I try to stay on topic. I'm very deep into weather forecasting. I do take it seriously and not just look at the models and log off. Any way, I'll have my thought's soon on the latest modeling. Also, anyone who quits this month and moves on is a mistake in the weather forecasting field. You should never jump ahead.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
Phil,
You're also describing what Joe Bastardi years ago nicknamed the Canadian, the "Crazy Uncle"


I totally respect you for that not posting the actual maps. I don't know if you're upset, but you're too good of a poster to be driven away and you seem well-liked here by many. Regarding the WxBell stuff that is posted, my understanding is that Ryan has no problem with posting some of that stuff if I recall correctly. I think he has been asked but I could be mistaken. But describing stuff is more than enough if you'd prefer not to post imo and I realize it may not be WxBell. I've had MDA over the years and have limited it to describing what certain maps say (like the Euro weeklies) because they don't want maps to be posted too soon after they're released. I totally respect that request.
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Jeeze Larry. What are you paying for that? PM me.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Lol @ JB!! 3 words for us:" December to remember"
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You see He gets miss quoted so much it's unreal!! (He DID NOT say the SE would have a December to Remember). He said much of the nation would and I think a lot did have a great December. He said back in the fall that he thought the east would have a backend winter. Now come late March we can call him out on that statement if it don't pan out!!! JMO
 
Little strat warming going on
b6bda11fbde51f3fe60d6d09d543f7b6.jpg


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I haven't seen significant snow in March in 24 years so I'm not holding my breath for March. Climo says we realistically have about 3 weeks left before spring begins.
 
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