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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

Ohhhh Canadaaaa...

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ATLwxfan said:
Let's just be clear. That's NOT happening.


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If there will be a snow pack it might. At this time though, I think that temp map is too the extreme.

Edit: Also, that temp map matches up with E16 member snowfall output.

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pcbjr said:
Let's be clear - I never said it was - quite the opposite in fact (tongue in cheek, of course)! LOL
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There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio..... I suggest your trees would be wise to turn into Ents if they see you approaching in your loin cloth and carrying an obsidian knife, lol. I bet the fine folks of London never thought they'd be ice skating on the Thames, 'til a minimalist named Maunder had his say :) T
 
Yeah the eps other than the control is not exciting at all.

All in on the gefs lol

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dsaur said:
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio..... I suggest your trees would be wise to turn into Ents if they see you approaching in your loin cloth and carrying an obsidian knife, lol. I bet the fine folks of London never thought they'd be ice skating on the Thames, 'til a minimalist named Maunder had his say :) T
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YIKES, T LOL
 
pcbjr said:
YIKES, T LOL
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Lol, it's a pretty horrific image, but imagine the leaders of your community explaining 8 inches of snow...had to be some kind of devil sacrifice, lol. Whatever the case it looks like my weeks in the 70's are behind me for a while. I just put a fire in the old wood burner for the first time in weeks. Getting more normal around here. 70's are welcome in July and August, but suck in Jan. T
 
SD said:
Meh the pacific is giving everything fits right now
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yep there is so much energy crashing into the west it's forcing everything east and rolling the ridge across the country for a few days . Not the end of the world , will be interesting to see if it's correct

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dsaur said:
but imagine the leaders of your community explaining 8 inches of snow
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That assumes two crucial factors: 1) there are leaders in this community, and 2) 8" of snow would ever be within the realm of possibility. :D
 
Ok, we'll go with 8 hours of snow flurries, lol. That'd be more than I've seen this year, and given a good push of cold air, and a tiny impulse in the southern stream not so outlandish a solution some day. T
 
pcbjr said:
^
Although 1 year ago today we had snow showers for about 4 hours!
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I was living there (near Archer and I-75) but woke up barely too late. I started staring out the window a little after 9 AM and then went outside into the cold on this Gainesville flurry hunt but sadly came up empty. :(

So, I haven't seen a single flake in person in at least two years or so.
 
My best guess is that it's probably correct. The SOI really tanked, and is causing a big ruckus. I originally thought it would mean a favorable split pattern, but it's crashing the energy into the trough instead of undercutting it. Hopefully it will straighten out in the next weeks like Larry was referring to.

Storm5 said:
yep there is so much energy crashing into the west it's forcing everything east and rolling the ridge across the country for a few days . Not the end of the world , will be interesting to see if it's correct

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GaWx said:
I was living there (near Archer and I-75) but woke up barely too late. I started staring out the window a little after 9 AM and then went outside into the cold on this Gainesville flurry hunt but sadly came up empty. :(

So, I haven't seen a single flake in person in at least two years or so.
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I do a long walk before sunup and it started about 5:45 that morning - went until about 10:30 - 11:00 here in far NW G'ville - Archer Rd is too "hot" for snow - LOL
 
Until we get the Pac to slow, which it should eventually, it's going to be hard for a cold pattern to lock in. Good news is that we do look to get some BN shots at least over the next couple of weeks. There are ways to make that work, although it'll take more luck than usual.
 
Rain Cold said:
Until we get the Pac to slow, which it should eventually, it's going to be hard for a cold pattern to lock in. Good news is that we do look to get some BN shots at least over the next couple of weeks. There are ways to make that work, although it'll take more luck than usual.
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nothing new in SE lol

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GaWx said:
I was living there (near Archer and I-75) but woke up barely too late. I started staring out the window a little after 9 AM and then went outside into the cold on this Gainesville flurry hunt but sadly came up empty. :(

So, I haven't seen a single flake in person in at least two years or so.
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Well, you saw snow in Sav. and that's like a foot is snow years :) T
 
Like your avatar, Larry. How about them birds!! It's like a deep snow, only a lot more rare in the past, but maybe not going forward. Need Shanahan to stay, and get some blocking to hold him here, with a steady flow of draft picks, and an active southern division. Looks good in the short, and long range, lol. T
 
thought for a moment that suppressed system I've been looking at might actually try to come up on 18z, but it stopped. If only it could sync up with the clipper as at this point I don't think it comes up. If it can then the clipper might be influenced a bit by the GOM shortwave.

ETA: It does start being influenced a bit but very late.
 
^ Now that's a great set of analogies from the usually quite clever Mr. T!

I think we can finally say with confidence that Dimitroff's bold sacrifice of future high draft picks for julio Jones worked out!
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0900...lockbuster-deal-with-browns-move-up-for-jones

Don't get too worked up if that system never amounts to anything next week and if the overall pattern lets up for the first few days of Feb. Things at least appear to be looking up for the 2nd week+ of Feb. Check out the Feb. thread if you haven't yet.
 
I can say with honesty I've never seen the idea of a super clipper until the last many GFS runs, and now the GFS seems locked in on the idea. I think it's overamped though tbh.
 
It's 18Z - Do not despair. That run is consistently like an Uncle, twice removed, who shows up at Thanksgiving, has a couple too many drinks, tells some corny jokes that makes no sense to anyone but him, and he still gets "respect" - until he leaves the room when laughter breaks out (and not at his jokes, mind you).

Inside of 4 days if the 18Z is following the OZ and 12Z, then the "Uncle" needs to be listened to. If. however, Uncle 18Z is telling jokes no one else in the family can figure out - let him leave the room and then laugh!

JMHO
 
yep I'm a believer in days 7-10. Taller ridge and and a tick west with the through and boom
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Nice run, so close to. I bet a Weenie run at oz tonigh, maybe.
 
Is it just me or did I see two just missed phases on the GFS?

And jeez the storm that the GFS tries to show coming out of the west in entertainment purposes only land is absolutely massive.
 
RollTide18 said:
That's a shame, coming up on 7 years since that Deep South Winter Storm in Feb '10.
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Ah, the push is probably over-done. Some areas might can see something, I just don't like the look right now. You know days ago, the severe threat took over.. but ensembles hinted at multiple overruning events with this one being one of them.
 
RollTide18 said:
So uh, any way this moisture can go north?

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This is the one I've really been watching until today and sadly I think the best case scenario with it is it syncs up with the clipper a bit and we see the clipper be influenced with the GOM moisture. It's not going to come up at this point barring a real surprise.
 
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