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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

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The idea that we've just started talking about has our most likely path to a winter storm. Try to sneak a system in right before moderation really takes place.
 
The 18z GFS has the shield of moisture further north than 12z GFS and it's colder. This trend may continue or it may not. Just depends on the ridgeing and the vorticity.

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Many trees have leaves growing back around here. I hate to see them die. I have never seen this in Jan before. Is it rare?
 
CoreyTheSecond said:
Many trees have leaves growing back around here. I hate to see them die. I have never seen this in Jan before. Is it rare?
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I haven't seen leaves or flowers blooming but I am seeing buds and this is not good considering that we're pretty much for sure going to see some more days dip to freezing or below as a low temp.
 
12z Euro EPS, 500mb vorticity...yup, grab a big tub of popcorn and just sit back.
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GeorgiaGirl said:
I haven't seen leaves or flowers blooming but I am seeing buds and this is not good considering that we're pretty much for sure going to see some more days dip to freezing or below as a low temp.
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My tree has leaves. I looked at it really good and inspected it. They were buds....but have been upgraded to leafs. Red ones. It's really pretty cool.
 
CoreyTheSecond said:
My tree has leaves. I looked at it really good and inspected it. They were buds....but have been upgraded to leafs. Red ones. It's really pretty cool.
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Yeah I even saw some buds up this way which is incredibly rare and something I've never seen earlier then the beginning of March in the 10 years I've lived here. No way in heck they survive up here through the rest of winter.
 
olhausen said:
Yeah I even saw some buds up this way which is incredibly rare and something I've never seen earlier then the beginning of March in the 10 years I've lived here. No way in heck they survive up here through the rest of winter.
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Plants are pretty tough, think the buds will be just fine and will open at the proper time ! Wouldn't hurt to get some snowcover to protect the buds from the dangerous cold that February will bring! Now is also a good time to check your trees for worms
 
Well it was fun getting a little dose of severe weather tracking in over the last week or so. Pleased to see winter may be getting ready to make its way back. Lets reel another one in!!
 
CoreyTheSecond said:
Many trees have leaves growing back around here. I hate to see them die. I have never seen this in Jan before. Is it rare?
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Not particularly. Trees and bushes in Ga. especially, never take winter as seriously as they should. It warms up, they bud, then Wham, here comes the hammer. I don't feel sorry for them, because it happens over and over... you'd think they'd figure it out, but they don't. Plants and trees are pretty dumb when it comes to weather...creatures of habit, lol. It used to happen to peach trees all the time back when we had peach trees...but they all moved away, it seems :) I think they moved south..down around Gainesville, lol. T
 
this won't work our area needs to be further to the west . could work for the carolinas. but I'm not feeling this one at all.
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it's the next one that has my interest . you can see the energy in the PNW in the above image

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hot damn that's some healthy energy diving down through Washington state , this should be a fun run
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If the clipper and gulf system that's going to be suppressed can sync up a bit more it might be okay for Tennessee-North Carolina/Northern SC. Not one that's going to do it anywhere else though.

And by okay, I mean a lite event.

Edit: Especially Virginia.
 
GFS: What day 8-10 system? (so far at least)

If there was one though what I'm seeing on upper dynamics would probably make it not work. It's a flat flow so I'm not sure that'd it dig.
 
Storm5 said:
I hate the pacific . it's screwing us

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That run suck.. lol that pacific trough cuts and I guess flattens the ridge out west... is that the reason why the piece in the southern stream over Mexico cuts off and never kicks east indirectly?
 
EastAtlwx said:
That run suck.. lol that pacific trough cuts and I guess flattens the ridge out west... is that the reason why the piece in the southern stream over Mexico cuts off and never kicks east indirectly?
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Not having a block is a problem. We are likely waiting until Feb for the most part.

Reliance on a total phase in the right spot and time for us is not going to pan out.
 
EastAtlwx said:
That run suck.. lol that pacific trough cuts and I guess flattens the ridge out west... is that the reason why the piece in the southern stream over Mexico cuts off and never kicks east indirectly?
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If you're talking about the first system, the northern stream is crushing it.

And it's pretty clear right now that some monster system out of Canada is going to roll the eastern trough away after a quick period with it, we don't go back to a western trough but we go to a flat flow.
 
Something finally starts developing late in the 8-10 day period but it's weaker than what we've seen on previous runs with meh temps=meh. Unless we can get something timed up right before a moderation period, this isn't going to work.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Something finally starts developing late in the 8-10 day period but it's weaker than what we've seen on previous runs with meh temps=meh. Unless we can get something timed up right before a moderation period, this isn't going to work.
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it's the best option over the next 10 days . we will see what the ensembles look like

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Blocking is key for a true Southern threat. No, we don't quite need a true -NAO or anything.. but something to slow the Northern Branch down and anchor something in place to allow Southern energy to cut underneath.

Jan is kaput for many.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If you're talking about the first system, the northern stream is crushing it.

And it's pretty clear right now that some monster system out of Canada is going to roll the eastern trough away after a quick period with it, we don't go back to a western trough but we go to a flat flow.
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Suppression depression... lol
 
damn that's a fairly cold pattern on the gfs with a brief day or two " warmup" here and there. I'll take that run all day . plenty of energy , plenty of cold, plenty of opportunity

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And, that something phases with a disturbance coming out of the pacific and ends up cutting. That's not surprising though, this flow is too flat so there is nothing keeping this system from going way north, maybe if it's about a day earlier and with a just a slightly sharper ridge, it's a good upper south event. This time though waited too long.

At the very least this system is going to end up interesting those in the northeast/mid atlantic.
 
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