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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter
pcbjr
Member
This has been hyped or show or talked about for like 2-3 weeks? When do we see the effects of the strat warming
Please hold your breath longer! 18z reactions seem kind of muted? It finally cave to every other model?
NM! I see the 18Z dumpster fire! No clipper love and 2 rain events after that, through the end! Finally caved to every other model! I know don't look at op runs, but if it would have the " almost mega clipper bomb" we'd be up 3 or 4 pages by now! Silence is deafening
The models started showing warming around D16 and there is some warming and displacement occurring right now. If that holds true you may see the troposphere start to respond a bit in as little as 5-7 days with the AO heading negative then you get the EPO ridge to bump up and we see a cold pattern spreading across the US in 10-15 days
pcbjr
Member
The turd in the punch bowl of the whole thing is the eventual fate of the MJO. The GFS takes it through the COD before emerging back toward P8 while the Euro tries to complete the circuit going through weak P4-5....that has huge implications on the future pattern with the GFS favoring a cold central/eastern US the Euro a cold west coast/west canada
It was 94 in Laredo, TX today. That has to be some sort of a record.
pcbjr
Member
Alright, the 18z GFS run was a fluke IMO. Here is the problem from the 18z on why we didn't see the look like what the 12z GFS showed. It's the ridge out in the Atlantic, it's further east and it doesn't bulge to the north and west much.
Different story on the 12z EPS, the ridge is further west and it does bulge to the north and west. This would allow for the low to slow and amplify and change the track of low than what the 18z GFS is showing. From looking at the 500mb heights map from the EPS...the low should be just off of the Carolina coast(s) moving NE/NNE before heading out to sea.
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Different story on the 12z EPS, the ridge is further west and it does bulge to the north and west. This would allow for the low to slow and amplify and change the track of low than what the 18z GFS is showing. From looking at the 500mb heights map from the EPS...the low should be just off of the Carolina coast(s) moving NE/NNE before heading out to sea.
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I think Larry has said COD was ok, as long as it was on the left side!?Quite a spread there
pcbjr
Member
COD is fine as other factors can control - (if they line up) and left side is very preferred regardless.
The COD can be fine but if you look at the Euro/EPS around D10 it's very similar to a P4 January MJO composite with the trough in the west. But the EPS does progress toward a better pattern by D15. All I am saying is if the MJO stays moves through P3-7 you might hear the phrase delayed but not denied.
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I have even gone further than that and have said that the left side of the circle actually has been colder overall for the SE US than everywhere else, whether inside or outside though just outside the left side also has been cold. Of course, these are just tendencies just as is the case for any one index. But this was based on looking at actual KATL temperatures (used as a rep for the SE) for every January day 1975-2014 and noting the position of the MJO for each day. It isn't a theory. It is based on what has actually taken place since the daily MJO became available. In addition, I noticed somewhat similar results for Dec and Feb though I didn't do the detailed day by day calcs for that due to lack of time.
I may do a blog post on this at some point to better explain.
Edit: I was totally surprised about the inside the circle being colder than outside. I had no idea til I looked at the actual daily results. Then I noticed a pattern and started noting not just phase but also whether inside or outside for each phase.
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bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Watch Monday AM closely. The setup looks eerily like Jan 28,2014, in which models showed nothing until 3-4 days out. Ended up with snowjam.
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Storm5
Member
there is no support on the eps for a low of any kind
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pcbjr
Member
Not questioning at all - just want to learn - are you saying inside the left side of the COD is colder than P8? If so, that is a very interesting tidbit to stash for future reference!
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Upper and surface maps from the 2014 snowjam. Looks similar to this weekend system.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
I would like to believe a surprise is possible, but those surprise systems aren't as likely today. This setup is frustrating though and we could see a couple subtle changes late that may lead to a small event...may. Doesn't mean it will happen, but its not impossible.
You also have Christmas 2010, but it was when I feel that models weren't as good and showed a lot of fantasy storms that were eventually backed off of. Usually today if a storm isn't showing up, it's not going to happen.
You also have Christmas 2010, but it was when I feel that models weren't as good and showed a lot of fantasy storms that were eventually backed off of. Usually today if a storm isn't showing up, it's not going to happen.