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Pattern January Joke

This is going to have to work REALLY hard to bring more than a light snow event to the Southeast, outside the mountains. Basically, everything has to trend south and west and strong. We can't see any of those things go the other way.

Grit said it upthread, but the main shortwave entering the US around the Great Lakes is not ideal. We have a kicker upstream. I do like the strength of the wave, and the fact that it is diggy. I like that there's cold around.

I do not like that we basically have no wiggle room at all. Blocking would help a lot. But we don't have that. It's fun to track for sure. But we are really going to need zero trends the wrong way from here on out. That is VERY hard to accomplish.

Tons of winter left either way. We're still in the game for this one, which I suppose is all you can ask for right now.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Based off a singular icon run y’all
Click to expand...
It can be a foretelling sign when a system is at this range though sometimes, especially since the energy is getting closer and trends become more sampling based vs disagreement on modeling. We want all models at this juncture to head the right direction and head away from fail points
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 182424
The RGEM is super odd looking, completely different then all guidance
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Very different. The VM that digs down the backside has separation from the northern branch. If correct, the trough will stay positive tilt but may be able to tap the GOM for some light precip.
1768145217302.png
 
NBAcentel said:
It can be a foretelling sign when a system is at this range though sometimes, especially since the energy is getting closer and trends become more sampling based vs disagreement on modeling. We want all models at this juncture to head the right direction and head away from fail points
Click to expand...
I’m not disagreeing with you, but with a deep trough like this very tiny subtle differences can mean everything. This is why you track to 24-36 hours out
 
NBAcentel said:
It can be a foretelling sign when a system is at this range though sometimes, especially since the energy is getting closer and trends become more sampling based vs disagreement on modeling. We want all models at this juncture to head the right direction and head away from fail points
Click to expand...
Not to mention that the ICON has been one of the more enthusiastic models from the beginning. I hate losing it at this range, too.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol it's snowing
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50d795d0ee18857a08530e57ee5e05f7.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
LukeBarrette said:
Based off a singular icon run y’all
Click to expand...

The mtn areas will probably still make out with a good snow with that strong NW flow from the ULL but it's running out of room for anything more. The PNA ridge needs to shift significantly further west to allow room for this to dig and pull in moisture from the Atlantic. Running out of time, though.
 
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