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Pattern January Joke

RBR71 said:
Well as bad as the NAM can be 2 things I've always thought it did fairly well: at H5 and picking up warm layers in winter events.
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It’s very jumpy at H5 until 36 hours before the event. And yes it’s good with temps aloft
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Zebra stripe surface depiction for storm 2. Not sure I’ve seen this before View attachment 182411
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That's the 6 hour panel. You need to look at a 3 hour panel.

Hour 171:
1768142057295.png

Hour 174:
1768142158644.png

Cold chasing precip. We know how that works most of the time. But who knows...
 

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It may fail in the end, but there is no doubt, fwiw, at this range, that the 12Z NAM is much improved from 6z. Deeper and further west. Let's see where it ends up. EDIT: Improved at the end, but the base of the trough never went negative tilt ,so too dry. nam-500hv-conus-2026011112-69.png .
 
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Wild Weather Monger said:
It may fail in the end, but there is no doubt, fwiw, at this range, that the 12Z NAM is much improved from 6z. Deeper and further west. Let's see where it ends up. EDIT: Improved at the end, but the base of the trough never went negative tilt ,so too dry. View attachment 182418 .
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1768143332344.png
Definitely improved from where 06z was
 
This is going to have to work REALLY hard to bring more than a light snow event to the Southeast, outside the mountains. Basically, everything has to trend south and west and strong. We can't see any of those things go the other way.

Grit said it upthread, but the main shortwave entering the US around the Great Lakes is not ideal. We have a kicker upstream. I do like the strength of the wave, and the fact that it is diggy. I like that there's cold around.

I do not like that we basically have no wiggle room at all. Blocking would help a lot. But we don't have that. It's fun to track for sure. But we are really going to need zero trends the wrong way from here on out. That is VERY hard to accomplish.

Tons of winter left either way. We're still in the game for this one, which I suppose is all you can ask for right now.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Based off a singular icon run y’all
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It can be a foretelling sign when a system is at this range though sometimes, especially since the energy is getting closer and trends become more sampling based vs disagreement on modeling. We want all models at this juncture to head the right direction and head away from fail points
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 182424
The RGEM is super odd looking, completely different then all guidance
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Very different. The VM that digs down the backside has separation from the northern branch. If correct, the trough will stay positive tilt but may be able to tap the GOM for some light precip.
1768145217302.png
 
NBAcentel said:
It can be a foretelling sign when a system is at this range though sometimes, especially since the energy is getting closer and trends become more sampling based vs disagreement on modeling. We want all models at this juncture to head the right direction and head away from fail points
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I’m not disagreeing with you, but with a deep trough like this very tiny subtle differences can mean everything. This is why you track to 24-36 hours out
 
NBAcentel said:
It can be a foretelling sign when a system is at this range though sometimes, especially since the energy is getting closer and trends become more sampling based vs disagreement on modeling. We want all models at this juncture to head the right direction and head away from fail points
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Not to mention that the ICON has been one of the more enthusiastic models from the beginning. I hate losing it at this range, too.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol it's snowing
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50d795d0ee18857a08530e57ee5e05f7.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
LukeBarrette said:
Based off a singular icon run y’all
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The mtn areas will probably still make out with a good snow with that strong NW flow from the ULL but it's running out of room for anything more. The PNA ridge needs to shift significantly further west to allow room for this to dig and pull in moisture from the Atlantic. Running out of time, though.
 
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